Olympics Tennis Preview: 2024 Males’s Draw
The Paris Olympics tennis preview delivers a possible wowzer: a second-round duel between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. This males’s draw appears like one thing between a Masters 1000 and a Grand Slam, distilled right down to a 64-player discipline with 16 seeds.
The Olympics is perhaps Rafa’s final event. Or not. However let’s simply say this. To finish his profession with a match in opposition to Djokovic, the rival of a lifetime, is perhaps becoming. It’s the GOAT vs. the Clay GOAT. And the place is Roland Garros– the place a statue of Nadal adorns its stunning grounds.
Nadal vs Djokovic: 2024 Paris Olympics Tennis Preview
I wish to make only a few fast notes about this matchup earlier than we look at the remainder of the draw, which can also be fairly compelling. Djokovic leads Nadal within the total head-to-head by a slim 30-29. Are you getting goosebumps?
Once they final met in 2022, Nadal beat Djokovic at Roland Garros in a 4-set quarterfinal on the way in which to the title. Oh however recall– the earlier yr, Novak beat Rafa in a 4-set semifinal on his method to the title.
Nadal has two Olympic gold medals, one in singles (Beijing 2008) and one in males’s doubles (Rio 2016). Djokovic doesn’t have any Olympic gold medals and has plainly acknowledged that he needs one. He’s received Roland Garros thrice. Nadal has received 14 instances.
Rafa is 38 years outdated, and Novak is 37. Neither man is acting at his pinnacle, however even a past-peak member of the Large 3 is ridiculously troublesome to beat. Whereas Nadal had a pleasant run to the finals of a 250 final week, he needed to grind. Bigtime. Djokovic has suffered a sequence of unlucky occasions in 2024. He opted to play Wimbledon and made a stunning journey to the championship match– the place he was soundly defeated by Carlos Alcaraz.
Lastly, a be aware about clay. Nadal leads the clay H2H 20-8 over Djokovic. That’s really very spectacular for Novak. It’s been mentioned that one of many hardest duties in sports activities is to beat Rafa on clay. Djokovic has performed it 8 instances.
Oh and another factor. Some stuff really must occur with a purpose to arrange this monster match! I’m a bit untimely with all this. Djokovic would wish to beat Matthew Ebden, and Nadal would wish to high Marton Fucsovics of their first spherical matches. I’m going to unabashedly root for that. Sorry not sorry.
Paris Olympics 2024 Males’s Singles Draw Evaluation
Sadly World #1 Jannik Sinner needed to withdraw from the Olympics with tonsillitis, and Andy Murray has ended his singles profession. He’ll solely play doubles at this Olympics. No worries. Loads of expertise right here, and this situation places Alcaraz and Djokovic on the alternative sides of the draw, the place they belong.
First the straightforward half. If the gifted younger Frenchman Arthur Fils can get previous the upstart Italian Matteo Arnaldi in Spherical 1, I’ve Fils within the Spherical of 16. He simply beat Alexander Zverev to seize a clay court docket title, and he’ll have the French crowd backing him. Query is, who would he play?
Yikes. That is powerful. I don’t like to choose in opposition to both Rafa or Novak. It bodily pains me. To do that, I have to remind myself that this match, for all its sentimental worth, would actually be identical to every other match: A snapshot in time. It’s not a closing assertion of my opinion on anybody’s profession as an entire.
So what does the present image inform us? Novak had knee surgical procedure in June– for an harm that occurred on this very crimson clay.
Considering out loud and stating the plain: Clay is its personal beast.
I watched each stroke that Nadal hit on the Swedish Open final week. Nadal’s forehand and lateral motion are as whip-sure as ever. He’s operating round to hit forehand like a champ. His serve nonetheless leaves one thing to be desired, and he had a great deal of hassle holding serve in Bastad.
However clay takes the sting out of serves. And Nadal’s profitable proportion on second-serves– on all surfaces– is statistically the perfect that has even been. The person simply is aware of find out how to construct some extent on this floor. So I give Rafa the sting over Novak by the slimmest of margins in a 3-set epic.
That may put my brackets at Rafa vs. Fils, and I can’t not choose Nadal right here– I’ve come this far.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has a reasonably simple draw, and I’ve him coming via at his favourite venue. That may put Nadal vs. Stef– which is Rafa’s favourite form of matchup. To tug a quote from his e-book, writing about Roger Federer: “To the backhand, to the backhand, to the backhand. At all times to the backhand.” Rafa once more in 3.
The opposite aspect of this half is teeming with storylines. My Olympics tennis preview bracket has Taylor Fritz avenging his Wimbledon loss to Lorenzo Musetti solely to fulfill Zverev in an ungainly re-match. The French crowd hates Fritz, and Zverev is miffed at Taylor’s field. Each gamers have off-the-court distractions. Two large servers on a floor that doesn’t at all times amplify serves.
The reality is, Alex’s profitable percentages on clay hover round 80%, whereas Taylor is round 58%. It’s a large distinction. So I’ve Zverev coming via and wielding confidence in opposition to Nadal, who he crushed within the first spherical of Roland Garros 2024 only a few months in the past.
Carlos Alcaraz: Olympics Tennis Preview
As clay court docket tennis goes, the opposite half of this Paris Olympics males’s tennis draw is considerably weaker. Carlos Alcaraz however.
The six seed Casper Ruud, usually a pressure on clay, appears to be ready for the retirement of the Large 3 till he will get his mojo again. Actually, I’m excessive on Argentina’s Francisco Cerundolo to come back via that part. Fran has a 3-2 lead in his head-to-head with Ruud.
Daniil Medvedev, a lot improved on clay lately, has a cake attract his part. Meddy and Fran have by no means met! Like it when that occurs. The issue for Cerundolo right here is that nobody on the planet performs like Medvedev. And to fulfill him first time in competitors? Powerful ask. I like Daniil in 3, if that occurs.
Alex De Minaur has been taking part in lights out in 2024, however he’s coming off a hip harm that compelled him out of Wimbledon. I wish to say that the clay of the ATP Tour is not any place to rehab. It’s punishing. American Tommy Paul is the ninth seed in that part, and as a former junior champ at Roland Garros, he’s my choose to come back via.
That leaves the ebullient Alcaraz with no actual competitors, besides presumably the subsequent highest seed in his a part of the draw, Alejandro Tabilo. The lefty Chilean is an distinctive athlete however not fairly prepared for the likes of Carlitos.
Alcaraz vs Paul can be an entertaining match of the tour’s present super-movers. Whereas Paul has nice palms, Carlitos has softer palms. Good for these drop pictures and contact volleys.
Prediction: Paris Olympics Males’s Draw 2024
I’ve Zverev over Rafa and Alcaraz over Medvedev. Then I’ve Alcaraz over Zverev. Right here’s my considering. You don’t diverge from the present development till you’re knowledgeable in any other case. Carlos has received each Roland Garros and Wimbledon in 2024. His expertise is otherworldly. He’ll relish his first alternative to play for Spain in Olympic competitors.
I additionally suppose the shorter, best-of-three format helps him. Alcaraz hasn’t but perfected the artwork of profitable early-round matches in straight units to protect his power. It would benefit him to not need to slog via 4 or 5 units early within the event. Then he can be happy to grind if he needs– or placed on a fireworks show with all his selection.
Whereas best-of-three can generally randomize outcomes (see girls, WTA Tour), on this case the ability of Alcaraz is simply too large.
