Olympics’ last 4 males’s basketball groups, ranked by gold medal probabilities in Paris

Twelve groups entered the lads’s basketball match on the 2024 Paris Olympics. Now solely 4 stay. The US, Germany, France, and Serbia superior to the semifinals on Tuesday in an exhilarating day of motion that included massive upsets and historic comebacks. This match — rightfully billed as essentially the most gifted within the historical past of the Olympics — has lived as much as each ounce of hype to date, and the end guarantees to be one of the best half but.

We ranked Canada because the second-best group within the area forward of the quarterfinals. Whoops. As an alternative, France benched Rudy Gobert and blitzed the Canadians with a punishing inside scoring assault. Elsewhere, Serbia worn out the most important deficit in Olympics historical past to stun Australia, and the US and Germany took care of enterprise.

Earlier than the semifinals tip off on Thursday, right here’s how we’d rank the 4 groups remaining by their possibilities of capturing the gold medal.

4. Serbia

Serbia’s Olympic dream was on life help when Australia raced out to a 24-point lead within the quarterfinals. That’s when Nikola Jokic reminded the group in Paris that he’s one of the best participant on the earth. Jokic was making successful performs everywhere in the flooring as Serbia ultimately wrestled away the lead within the third quarter, exhibiting off his elite inside scorer, passing, and rebounding, whereas additionally using the FIBA guidelines for one key block off the rim. Serbia hasn’t performed by way of Jokic (who wasn’t a member of final yr’s World Cup group) as a lot as you would possibly count on, however the group nonetheless is aware of the place to go together with the ball when the sport is on the road. For as spectacular as Serbia’s comeback was, it’s laborious to see their pathway to a win over the USA until their guards actually go off. Vasilije Micic and Bogdan Bogdanovic each began to unlock their offense towards Greece, however doing it vs. Jrue Vacation, Derrick White, and the remainder of the U.S. protection is a a lot more durable job. It’s wild to suppose that Serbia can have one of the best participant on the ground within the matchup, however Workforce USA has the following 12 finest gamers. Serbia can hold it shut if it performs its finest recreation, however the U.S. must be an excessive amount of.

Photograph by Tom Weller/VOIGT/GettyImages

3. France

Head coach Vincent Collet benched Rudy Gobert and Evan Fournier within the quarterfinals towards Canada, and the lineup change gave France what it wanted to drag off the massive upset. The French went small with Isaïa Cordinier and Guerschon Yabusele attacking a weak Canadian entrance court docket, permitting them to one way or the other win a recreation the place Gobert and Nic Batum went scoreless, and Victor Wembanyama shot solely 2-for-10 from the sphere. France in all probability gained’t have the ability to follow a small ball lineup towards a German group with tons of beef within the center (Daniel Theis, Johannes Voigtmann, and Mo Wagner), but it surely must proceed discovering methods to create spacing and hold the ball shifting. France’s poor guard play will stay to be a difficulty in any matchup, however Fournier getting scorching off the bench was a development it wish to see proceed. The trail to the French punching their ticket to the gold medal recreation begins with Wembanyama bouncing again offensively, and certain wants to incorporate Gobert getting again on the ground and fortifying the paint. If France can beat Canada, you shouldn’t low cost the house group’s probabilities towards anybody.

Photograph by Gregory Shamus/Getty Pictures

2. Germany

Germany was on the ropes early towards Greece, however this German group is simply too robust and too organized to exit unhappy within the quarterfinals towards a serious underdog. Germany solid its comeback behind star Franz Wagner’s perimeter creation potential, and a lockdown protection that held Greece to 27 second half factors. Whereas he’s nonetheless ice chilly as a three-point shooter, Wagner stays one of the vital devastating scorers left on this area, sufficiently big to energy his method deep into the paint, and expert sufficient to complete. Dennis Schröder continues to be the ‘lightning’ that enhances Wagner’s ‘thunder’ offensively. The veteran guard is just method too fast for France’s shaky guard rotation. That is changing into a golden period for German basketball with a 2023 World Cup championship to their identify and now their first ever berth within the Olympic semifinals. The Germans play laborious and play collectively. They’ve two nice creation choices within the youthful Wagner brother and Schröder, they usually have loads of measurement down low. Even towards a hostile French atmosphere, Germany deserves to be the favourite to play for gold.

Photograph by Gregory Shamus/Getty Pictures

1. United States

Brazil was by no means going to check the US, and certainly it didn’t. The U.S. turned their quarterfinal matchup right into a rout by the second quarter with Steve Kerr’s group once more flexing its gorgeous mixture of depth and firepower. The very best quality of this USA group is it may possibly nonetheless thrive even when its greatest stars have an off-night. Six American gamers reached double-figures in scoring towards Brazil, and a balanced offensive assault ought to proceed as the established order for a gaggle that has been very keen to make sacrifices and share the ball. The scary factor for the remainder of the world is that Workforce USA seems to be this good with out Stephen Curry hitting many photographs from deep. Serbia will nonetheless be an enormous check for the U.S. It has one of the best participant on the ground, and it performs with a togetherness that helps encourage upsets. That is the kind of group that would give the USA hassle on paper, however proper now Kerr’s squad is enjoying at such a excessive stage that it’s troublesome to doubt them. Workforce USA has gained seven of the final eight gold medals in males’s basketball, they usually’re two wins away from including one other one. In the mean time, it doesn’t seem like anybody can cease them.