On reflection, after all he was going to do it. On Thursday, Shohei Ohtani turned the primary participant in historical past to hit 50 dwelling runs and steal 50 bases in the identical season, and he did it loudly. His 6-for-6, three-homer, two-steal recreation could be among the many greatest single-game strains by any participant all yr even when it hadn’t concurrently helped him obtain a feat that nobody has ever carried out earlier than. Generally you simply need to marvel on the greatness.
Ohtani wasn’t purported to be at his peak this yr. He’s rehabbing from UCL restore surgical procedure and thus not pitching. His two-way prowess has all the time been a part of the Ohtani mystique, and 2024 felt like a warmup for subsequent yr, his first totally operational marketing campaign with the Dodgers. However as a substitute, Ohtani reached new heights as a hitter this yr. He’s already set profession bests for each counting stat possible. He’d have highs in each fee stat too, if it weren’t for his offensive breakthrough in 2023 (.304/.412/.654 for a 179 wRC+).
Ohtani all the time felt like a menace to hit 50 homers – he hit 46 in 2021 and 44 final yr — however 50 steals felt like a pipe dream; he’d swiped solely 86 complete bases in 716 video games earlier than this yr, and even with final yr’s rule adjustments that elevated stolen base makes an attempt and success charges, he swiped solely 20 baggage in 135 video games.
Early in 2024, that pattern continued. Throughout his first 20 video games, he stole three bases and hit 4 homers. Nobody questioned whether or not the house runs would come – clearly they might. He additionally smashed 10 doubles in these video games en path to a 177 wRC+. The facility is clear each time you watch him play. However steals? Regardless of his blazing velocity, they’d by no means actually been a part of his recreation, and nothing in regards to the begin of this yr indicated a change on that entrance.
Throughout his subsequent 20 video games, he batted a daft .364/.462/.701, socked seven dwelling runs, and stole six bases. That introduced his season complete to 11 homers and 9 steals in 40 video games, a 162-game tempo of 44 and 36. Then his hits began to depart the yard at a good better fee and his steals stalled a bit. By June 30, Ohtani had blasted 26 homers and stolen 16 baggage in 82 video games, good for a 162-game tempo of 51 and 31. Fifty dwelling runs was cheap, however 50 steals? It didn’t appear to be within the realm of risk.
One factor I’ve discovered within the final half decade, although, is that you simply doubt Ohtani at your personal threat. He beat colossal odds and upset preconceived notions throughout the game when he established himself as a two-way fixture within the majors. Scouts thought he couldn’t hit. Then they thought he couldn’t preserve doing it. They thought he’d put on down. They thought the primary main arm harm would flip him right into a full-time hitter. None of those predictions was appropriate. Why couldn’t he begin stealing bases at will?
That’s precisely what occurred. His 16 steals by means of June 30 ranked eleventh within the majors, so it’s not as if he was a disappointment on the basepaths, but it surely was simply one other superb factor that Shohei might do when he felt prefer it, nothing greater than that.
Nicely, that’s what we thought anyway. Over his subsequent 12 video games, which took him to the All Star break, he stole seven extra. Then he began to steal in bunches. He swiped three baggage on August 3, two on August 14, and one other two on August 17. He stole 15 bases in August – about as many as he swiped within the first half of the season!
All the sudden, 50/50 was on the menu. And it by no means got here off it, as a result of he stored his foot on the fuel pedal. Ohtani leads baseball in stolen bases within the second half of this season. He’d been flirting with a 50-homer tempo for a lot of the yr; the sudden inflow of steals was all he wanted. To know how rapidly issues modified for Ohtani, I like taking a look at this graph:
The diagonal line is the required tempo to get 50 of a given stat in a full season. As you’ll be able to see, the steals facet of the equation was very a lot doubtful till he obtained going – and it’s been easy crusing ever since.
Ohtani didn’t precisely coast over the end line, both. He’s been roughly on tempo to hit 50/50 for the previous couple of weeks, even after an oh-fer in a four-game stretch in Atlanta. After I ran a simulation Thursday morning to aim to foretell which day he’d get to 50/50, the probably end result pointed towards the tip of this week or the beginning of subsequent week. Then Ohtani produced maybe the best offensive day of all time: 6-for-6 with three homers, two doubles, 10 RBI, and two steals.
That’s 17 complete bases and no outs. Uh yeah, that’s fairly good. Two steals for good measure? How do you even steal two bases in a recreation the place you’ve got just one single and no walks? How do you do it when half of your plate appearances are dwelling runs? It’s outrageous. I really like this be aware from Opta Stats:
Since RBI turned official in 1920, just one MLB participant has had, over the course of his total profession (similar recreation or not),
a recreation with 10+ RBI
a recreation with 6+ hits
a recreation with 5+ XBH
a recreation with 3+ HR
a recreation with 2+ SBThat one participant is Shohei Ohtani. He did all of it at the moment. pic.twitter.com/njXOmwHKnm
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) September 20, 2024
It’s laborious to say way more than that, actually. Ohtani didn’t simply attain the 50-homer, 50-steal mark by grinding out the previous couple of tallies one after the other, inch by painstaking inch. He saved his greatest for final, placing up actually the most effective offensive recreation of his profession, and maybe the most effective recreation of anybody’s profession, to set the report.
It was his first multi-homer recreation with a steal all yr. It was solely the fourth of his profession. And it wasn’t two homers and one steal, like the opposite three had been – it was three homers and two steals. Nobody’s had that type of recreation earlier than, by no means thoughts all the opposite superb components about it.
What else are you able to say? Ohtani is peerless, utterly with out comparability. He is likely to be the best to ever do it. He’s definitely essentially the most singular. After all he obtained to this seemingly unreachable milestone with a seemingly not possible offensive outburst. That’s simply how he’s all the time carried out issues.
This recreation was so spectacular that I needed extra. I made a decision to ask my Ohtani 50/50 prediction mannequin whether or not he might get to 60/60. I tweaked a couple of variables, added to his dwelling run fee, and eradicated relaxation days. It mentioned, basically, “lol no.” In a single million simulations, he by no means hit 9 homers and stole 9 bases in the identical nine-game stretch. Even Ohtani won’t be up for that one.
Then again, his probabilities of attending to 55/55 are surprisingly cheap. With none changes to my pre-existing mannequin, I give him an 8% probability of hitting quadruple nickels – 55 twice. If I exploit his second-half tempo as a information as a substitute of our projections, it’s extra like 11%. It’s unlikely however doable, which is greater than I can say for the sport we simply witnessed.
However sufficient about math. Sufficient about what Ohtani would possibly do to make his feat much more spectacular. It’s already a staggering achievement, set in a means that nobody else can match. What a participant. What a recreation. What a season. When Ohtani places his thoughts to it, something is feasible.
