Third baseman Nolan Arenado is a logical commerce candidate with the Cardinals planning a reset yr. Because the Playing cards assess the curiosity, Katie Woo of The Athletic studies that Arenado is keen to maneuver to first base with a brand new membership, or no less than play the recent nook much less typically.
Arenado has lengthy voiced a want to compete, which is what spurred his commerce from Colorado to St. Louis years in the past. He additionally declined a possibility to opt-out of his contract after 2022, seemingly content material with the Cardinals’ standing as perennial contenders. However their efficiency has sagged lately, inflicting them to pivot to a deal with participant improvement and fewer on instant competition, no less than for 2025 however maybe longer.
With that near-term future outlook, it is sensible to think about buying and selling some gamers that aren’t a part of the long-term plans. Arenado is popping 34 years previous in April and has three years left on his contract, so there’s logic to the membership making him obtainable. He has a no-trade clause nevertheless it is sensible that he would have some openness to waiving it, given his want to compete and win. Woo studies that Arenado has not demanded a commerce however was receptive to the concept when president of baseball operations John Mozeliak mentioned it with him.
It’s not unusual for gamers to be keen to vary positions with the intention to broaden their potential touchdown spots. This offseason, free brokers like third baseman Alex Bregman and shortstop Willy Adames are reportedly keen to maneuver to different infield spots. Each are robust defenders at their positions, nevertheless it’s a smart tactic in maintaining one’s market as broad open as potential.
With Arenado, it makes slightly bit much less sense. Over the previous couple of years, his offense has declined however he has nonetheless been a beneficial participant due to his third base protection. He has slashed .269/.320/.426 over the 2 most up-to-date campaigns, offense that interprets to a 104 wRC+, barely above league common. Nonetheless, FanGraphs has nonetheless calculated him as being price about three wins above alternative in every these seasons (2.7 in 2023 and three.1 in 2024), due to his robust glovework.
Arenado has by no means performed a place aside from third, although he in all probability wouldn’t have a lot hassle shifting throughout the diamond since first base is usually thought of a much less demanding place. However that will additionally deprive him of his finest asset at this level in his profession, except his bat can rebound in a giant approach.
His willingness to maneuver may maybe be an element if a membership already had a wonderful third baseman, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville Information-Democrat (Bluesky hyperlink) speculating that the Padres are one such membership. That group has Manny Machado, a powerful third baseman in his personal proper, entrenched at third base as a franchise cornerstone. He’s below contract for nearly one other decade, by 2033.
They’ve a bit much less certainty at first base. Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arráez received many of the enjoying time there in 2024 however each are able to enjoying second base. The Padres had Xander Bogaerts on the keystone for a lot of 2024 however he moved again to shortstop when Ha-Seong Kim received injured, and Kim is now a free agent. Arráez can also be not an awesome defender, at secord or first base, so maybe he would finest match within the designated hitter slot.
Theoretically, it’s potential that the membership may have an infield of Machado, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Arenado from left to proper, with Arráez within the DH spot. Every now and then, Machado may get a breather because the DH, with Arenado shifting to 3rd and Arráez enjoying first.
There are additionally different the reason why the match may make sense, as Arenado beforehand performed for Padres supervisor Mike Shildt when Shildt was skipper in St. Louis. Arenado can also be a Southern California native. That has typically led to rumors of him ultimately being traded to the Dodgers, however the match there’s a bit trickier. The Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani taking on the DH spot, Freddie Freeman at first and Max Muncy at third. Theoretically, they may purchase Arenado and commerce Muncy, although it’s unclear if they’ve any want to take action. Muncy’s protection is a bit behind Arenado’s however he’s been higher on the plate currently, having slashed .218/.342/.481 over the previous two years for a 124 wRC+.
It could maybe be less complicated for the Padres to only purchase a primary baseman and for Arenado to go to a membership with a niche at third base. The Crimson Sox are reportedly considering of shifting Rafael Devers to first and will exchange him on the scorching nook by buying Arenado. Groups just like the Blue Jays, Mariners, Astros, Nationals, Brewers, Tigers, Mets and Phillies have been related to free brokers like Bregman or Adames, or are no less than speculative suits for a brand new third baseman. Arenado’s no-trade clause signifies that he would get to find out whether or not or not he goes to these golf equipment and it’s unknown how he would really feel about them by way of their potential to contend or how a lot their respective geographic areas would matter to him.
On high of all that, the Cardinals must assess what different golf equipment are keen to supply in return. Although the Playing cards are planning to run a decrease payroll in 2025, they don’t actually need to maneuver Arenado’s contract with the intention to accomplish that. RosterResource already initiatives them to be about $35MM decrease than they had been in 2024, so price financial savings shouldn’t be the precedence right here. To that finish, Woo studies that they received’t transfer Arenado simply to maneuver him or dump wage.
A commerce would presumably solely come collectively if the Cardinals really feel they’re getting one thing of worth in return. Maybe they may eat some the rest of Arenado’s contract with the intention to line up on a deal. He’s owed $74MM over the following three seasons although a few of that cash is deferred and the Rockies are additionally nonetheless on the hook for $5MM this coming season. Along with including some younger expertise within the commerce, the Playing cards may additionally use their reset yr to present Arenado’s enjoying time to gamers like Brendan Donovan, Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, Thomas Saggese or others.
For a group just like the Padres, like they could favor the Cardinals to eat some cash, since their payroll has been such a difficulty lately. They dialed again spending after 2023, dealing Juan Soto to the Yankees, and prevented the aggressive steadiness tax. Going into 2025, RosterResource initiatives their payroll to be about $40MM above 2024 ranges earlier than making any vital offseason strikes, with their CBT a bit over the road already as properly. Alternatively, they’ve traded away loads of prospects lately and won’t wish to additional deplete their farm simply to awkwardly wedge Arenado into their infield combine.
Woo’s reporting additionally provides that no deal is near being accomplished, however she provides that issues may choose up on the Winter Conferences, which happen from December 8 to 11.
