Infielder Luis Arráez is one yr away from being a free agent. He has expressed an openness to signing an extension however it doesn’t seem something is shut on that entrance. Per a report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Friars have “not but engaged in critical extension talks” with Arráez.
The truth that extension talks haven’t occurred but doesn’t essentially imply that they will’t occur at a later date. Historically, golf equipment like to make use of this a part of the calendar to concentrate on participant acquisitions, leaving extensions for nearer to spring coaching. Nevertheless, Lin reviews that there’s some debate inside the San Diego entrance workplace about how precious Arráez is, which maybe reduces the chances of extension talks gaining steam down the street.
On prime of that, there are the continuing budgetary questions to contemplate. The Padres had been among the many most aggressive golf equipment in baseball whereas proprietor Peter Seidler was nonetheless alive, however it was clearly unsustainable. In September of 2023, alongside information of Seidler’s deteriorating well being, it was reported that their debt service ratio was not in compliance with MLB rules.
The membership had given out nine-figure contracts to gamers like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish, alongside another notable offers as they seemed to remake the membership’s picture as a small-market also-ran. As they had been sending that cash out the door, much less was coming in, as their TV cope with Diamond Sports activities Group collapsed.
Going into 2024, the membership wanted to chop some payroll however had restricted choices for doing so. All of these aforementioned offers had been fairly massive and due to this fact exhausting to commerce. Even when the Padres discovered curiosity, all of these gamers have full no-trade clauses on their offers. All of those components, in addition to a scarcity of rotation depth, appeared to result in the Juan Soto commerce. That allowed the Friars to make an enormous reduce from their price range and duck below the aggressive steadiness tax whereas additionally bringing again arms like Michael King and Drew Thorpe, with Thorpe later flipped as a part of the Dylan Stop commerce.
Going into 2024, the price range might once more be a problem. Although they haven’t but made any notable strikes this offseason, RosterResource initiatives them for a $210MM payroll subsequent yr, greater than $40MM past final yr. They’re additionally projected for a $244MM CBT quantity, simply above subsequent yr’s $241MM base threshold.
It’s unknown what kind of actual payroll parameters the membership has for 2025, however Lin suggests the price range is tight once more. He reviews that the Friars had been curious about catchers Kyle Higashioka and Danny Jansen however got here up quick regardless of these backstops getting comparatively modest offers. Higashioka obtained $13.5MM over two years from the Rangers whereas Jansen settled for only one yr and $8.5MM from the Rays. That doesn’t recommend the membership is working with plenty of monetary firepower this winter.
Arráez could be a speculative candidate for a transfer to open some spending capability since he’s successfully in the identical place that Soto was final yr. He’s going into his remaining yr of membership management and set to make a notable wage whereas a number of different gamers are locked into long-term offers.
Stop and King are additionally only one yr from the open market, however buying and selling both of them appears much less possible. The San Diego rotation has a powerful entrance three consisting of these two and Darvish however issues get flimsy after that. Musgrove is more likely to miss the complete 2025 marketing campaign after present process Tommy John surgical procedure in October. Martín Pérez simply grew to become a free agent. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez are choices for the again finish however neither is totally established at this level. If something, the membership wants so as to add to that group, so subtracting King or Stop wouldn’t make a lot sense.
Arráez, alternatively, might make extra sense as a commerce candidate. He is among the recreation’s finest contact hitters, having gained three straight batting titles, however doesn’t stroll a lot or present a lot energy. He has solely drawn a stroll in 6.9% of his profession plate appearances however has solely been struck out 6.8% of the time, whereas by no means hitting greater than ten homers in a season. His .323/.372/.418 batting line interprets to a 120 wRC+.
That’s a novel strategy in right now’s recreation and Arráez is clearly the most effective on the issues he does properly, however it’s additionally a restricted profile. He’s doesn’t steal a ton of bases and isn’t thought-about a powerful defender at both second or first base, his two main positions.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz initiatives Arráez for a wage of $14.6MM subsequent yr. That’s far lower than what Soto was slated to make in 2024 however nonetheless some huge cash for a helpful however restricted participant. If the Padres had been to commerce Arráez, maybe for some pitching, they might have an infield consisting of Machado at third, Bogaerts at quick and Jake Cronenworth at second, maybe utilizing a number of the financial savings to go after a less expensive choice at first. Lin writes that the membership would favor to have Bogaerts at second like the beginning of the 2024 season however they would wish an answer at shortstop with Ha-Seong Kim now a free agent and more likely to miss the beginning of the 2025 season as a result of shoulder surgical procedure.
That is largely speculative however Lin’s report that the entrance workplace isn’t satisfied of Arráez’s worth might maybe nudge them extra in the direction of a commerce than an extension. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has usually been unafraid to make daring strikes even when painful, as final yr’s Soto commerce confirmed, so the Friars may very well be a membership to observe within the coming weeks in the event that they shake up the commerce market.
One participant unlikely to be on the block is reliever Robert Suarez. Per Lin, the Padres are inclined to maintain him as his contract has an opt-out after 2025, which complicates commerce talks. The righty is about to make $10MM in 2025 after which $8MM in every of the subsequent two years, although he can stroll away from these remaining two seasons. He simply posted a strong 2.77 ERA in 2024 and golf equipment would absolutely have curiosity in that type of efficiency, however the contract supplies plenty of draw back. If Suarez suffered any type of notable damage, he would absolutely decline his opt-out probability and linger on the books for these two years. On condition that draw back, a membership could also be reluctant to surrender any type of notable return or tackle the whole thing of the contract.
Lin additionally provides that the Padres are “hopeful, if not assured, a few potential reunion” with outfielder Jurickson Profar. After a dreadful 2023 season, Profar signed with San Diego for a assure of simply $1MM in 2024. That turned out to be a large discount for the membership, as Profar went on to hit .280/.380/.459 for a wRC+ of 139.
Profar and Preller have a protracted relationship, as he was working for the Rangers manner again when Profar was signed as a world novice. Since coming to the Padres, Preller has signed Profar a number of instances. However on the heels of a profession yr, Profar may be seeking to money in. MLBTR predicted he might land a three-year cope with a $45MM assure. If Profar is searching for something in that ballpark, it may very well be powerful to get it from San Diego, given the aforementioned payroll restrictions.
