NL Wild Card Sequence Preview: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves

With the 2022 change to a 12-team playoff format, the addition of the Wild Card Sequence, and the choice to put off winner-take-all tiebreaker video games, Main League Baseball thought it had caught a fork in Group Entropy and carried out away with end-of-season scheduling chaos. However with the league’s failure to strategy final week’s scheduled Braves-Mets collection in Atlanta with the mandatory degree of proactivity within the face of Hurricane Helene, the 2 groups have been pressured to play a doubleheader on Monday to find out the ultimate two NL Wild Card berths. Whereas the Braves squandered leads of 3-0 and 7-6 within the late innings of the opener, the groups finally break up the doubleheader; each completed 89-73 and made the minimize, whereas the Diamondbacks, who performed their last sport as scheduled on Sunday, missed it as a result of they misplaced their season collection in opposition to the pair. The Braves needed to fly cross-country on Monday evening to be able to make their date with Padres (93-69) in San Diego.

It’s a banged-up Braves staff at that. Not solely are they lacking Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, and Spencer Strider on account of season-ending accidents, however they’re now with out Chris Sale. The 35-year-old lefty might effectively gather the Cy Younger award that has lengthy eluded him, however he hasn’t pitched since September 19. A lot was manufactured from the Braves’ plan to begin him simply as soon as within the last week as a substitute of twice, and simply when the baseball world anticipated him to begin the must-win second sport of Monday’s doubleheader, he was dominated out on account of again spasms. Supervisor Brian Snitker stated after the win that he doesn’t count on Sale to pitch within the Wild Card Sequence, and added that that is one thing the pitcher has handled on and off this season. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos informed reporters previous to Sale’s scratched begin that he wouldn’t be happening the injured record.

As for the Padres, after a disappointing 2023 season during which they received simply 82 video games and squandered a franchise-record $255 million payroll and a full season of Juan Soto, they’re again within the postseason for the third time in 5 seasons. It took awhile for the Padres to hit their stride; they have been simply 50-49 on the All-Star break however went a significant league-best 43-20 (.683) thereafter. Not solely did they safe the highest NL Wild Card spot (and thus dwelling area benefit right here) however they even put a scare into the Dodgers earlier than the latter received the NL West.

To their credit score, the Padres turned issues round whereas Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, and Fernando Tatis Jr. have been on the injured record. The rotation appeared considerably threadbare, however offseason additions Dylan Stop and Michael King rose to the event. Xander Bogaerts overcame a shoulder harm of his personal and finally took over shortstop from the injured Ha-Seong Kim. An outfield that appeared thinner than any within the league acquired stellar contributions from Rookie of the 12 months candidate Jackson Merrill and Comeback Participant of the 12 months candidate Jurickson Profar. Apart from Kim, who’s slated to bear season-ending surgical procedure to restore a small tear in his labrum, San Diego’s roster is in comparatively good well being.

Rotations

With Musgrove and Darvish each pitching effectively since their returns, the Padres have one of many higher rotations of any playoff squad, and so they’re very effectively arrange for a brief collection. The way in which supervisor Mike Shildt has laid it out, Darvish is anticipated to pitch out of the bullpen on this spherical.

The centerpiece of the return within the Soto commerce, King spent a full main league season in a rotation for the primary time at age 29, and it was an excellent one. He overcame a gradual begin (a 5.00 ERA and 6.30 FIP in April) to complete fourth within the NL in ERA, fifth in strikeouts (201) and strikeout fee, and eighth in FIP. He was significantly stingy down the stretch, with a 2.15 ERA and a pair of.69 FIP within the second half. Throughout that late run, he added about one mile an hour to each his four-seamer and sinker, more and more favoring the latter, and labored forward within the rely with better frequency; he boosted his first-pitch strike fee from 64.5% within the first half to 69.0% within the second, a fee that will have ranked fifth amongst certified starters if he had sustained it for the entire season. As Ben Clemens just lately identified, the enhancements made King’s sinker/changeup mixture significantly efficient (he notched 118 of his 201 strikeouts with these two pitches), particularly inside a pitch combine that additionally included a new-for-2024 slider that launched extra lateral variation. The brand new motion profile graphs at Baseball Savant give us a transparent image:

From the All-Star break onward, King generated a whiff fee of 34.5% or greater from his four-seamer, changeup, slider, and sweeper whereas usually catching batters wanting on the sinker.

Musgrove, who missed the final two months of 2023 on account of shoulder capsule irritation, continued to battle accidents into this season, posting a 5.66 ERA and 5.36 FIP earlier than touchdown on the IL on June 1 on account of discomfort attributable to a bone spur and a bone bruise in his proper elbow. After returning on August 12, he regained a little bit of velocity and pitched like an ace, posting a 2.15 ERA and a pair of.59 FIP with a 29.1% strikeout fee in 50 1/3 innings; 5 of his 9 begins have been scoreless. In that span, batters produced only a .224 wOBA in opposition to his four-seamer, .212 in opposition to his cutter, and .186 in opposition to his sweeper.

Acquired from the White Sox in mid-March, Stop made a seamless transition to the NL as a top-of-the-rotation stalwart, putting fourth within the NL in innings and FIP, and third in strikeout fee and WAR (4.8). He did it whereas relying closely on a four-seamer/slider combo, throwing both one pitch or the opposite over 87% of the time to righties and over 85% of the time to lefties. The heater averages 96.9 mph and is especially efficient in opposition to righties (.342 SLG, 27.2% whiff), however the difference-maker is the slider, which had the second-highest Statcast run worth (19) within the majors behind that of Sale; batters hit simply .159 and slugged .257 whereas whiffing on 44.7% of swings in opposition to it. When Stop wants a 3rd pitch, he spots both a knuckle curve or sweeper, although lefties appear to have the previous’s quantity.

“Disarray” is just too delicate a phrase to explain the Braves’ rotation within the wake of Monday’s motion and the lack of Sale, on condition that Max Fried final pitched on Friday and might be on three days of relaxation when the collection begins, Charlie Morton pitched on Sunday, and Spencer Schwellenbach and Reynaldo López each pitched on Monday. By way of MLB.com’s Mark Bowman, at this writing the three choices Snitker and firm are mulling to begin Sport 1 every spent way more time at Triple-A Gwinnett than Atlanta: Ian Anderson, who made 10 begins there after coming back from April 2023 Tommy John surgical procedure however hasn’t pitched within the majors since ’22, when issues have been already going downhill; AJ Smith-Shawver, who made 20 begins at Gwinnett however only one for Atlanta; and Bryce Elder, who made 17 begins for Gwinnett and 10 for Atlanta. Fried is the plain name for Sport 2, as he’ll have 4 days of relaxation, and López, who pitched one scoreless reduction inning in Monday’s second sport, would have 4 days between begins for Sport 3.

Elder, a sinker/slider righty who not often exceeds 92 mph, threw 174 2/3 innings with a 3.81 ERA and 4.42 FIP final 12 months, however struggled after the All-Star break, reducing his inventory within the eyes of the staff. The 25-year-old started this season at Gwinnett, and yo-yoed between the majors and minors all season, coming as much as pitch the again half of doubleheaders or fill in on account of accidents however not sustaining sufficient success to stay. The place batters hit simply .210 and slugged .393 in opposition to his slider final season, these numbers rose to .278 and .593 this 12 months; the pitch’s Statcast worth plummeted from seven runs above common to 4 beneath. He simply doesn’t have a lot in the best way of weapons proper now. Anderson, now 26, helped the Braves win all of it in 2021 — bear in mind his 5 no-hit innings in Sport 3 of the World Sequence in opposition to Houston? — however had a 5.00 ERA and 4.25 FIP in ’22 earlier than his demotion. Starting on June 18, he made 4 lower-level rehab begins within the minors earlier than working his means as much as Gwinnett, the place he managed a 3.96 ERA and 4.89 FIP throughout 10 begins (52 1/3 innings), placing out 23.2% of opposing batters however strolling 11.8%. In keeping with Statcast, his four-seamer averaged 92.8 mph, 1.2 mph beneath his common in 2023, when it was hit laborious, and 1.8 mph beneath his common in ’22, when the pitch was nonetheless efficient. Batters slugged .578 off the heater this 12 months, however his 33.9% whiff fee on his changeup and 37.5% fee on his slider at the very least supply glimmers of hope if the Braves go along with him. Smith-Shawver, a 21-year-old righty who made six appearances final 12 months for the Braves plus one this 12 months, was tagged for a 4.88 ERA and 5.62 FIP at Gwinnett. His four-seamer averaged 95 mph however was hit laborious 49.6% of the time, and whereas his changeup was efficient, his breaking pitches weren’t.

Fried was hit for a 7.71 ERA over his first 4 begins however quickly started placing up zeroes. The truth is, he left each his April 29 begin in opposition to the Mariners and Could 11 begin in opposition to the Mets with out permitting successful, and from April 23 onward, he posted a 2.79 ERA and three.15 FIP, although he did miss about three weeks in July and August on account of a bout of neuritis in his left forearm. A decrease launch level helped him escape his early rut by getting extra rise and horizontal motion along with his four-seamer. He turned to his sinker extra usually (15.8%, up from final 12 months’s 11.7%) and acquired fewer swinging strikes than previously, however he did an excellent job of suppressing laborious contact. The Padres are significantly susceptible in opposition to lefties (extra on that beneath), so he may give them bother.

López returned to beginning after two years within the bullpen and was a revelation, along with his four-seam fastball and slider each rating excessive on the Statcast worth leaderboards. His slider held hitters to a .171 AVG and .262 SLG whereas netting whiffs on 44.1% of swings. His curve, used predominantly in opposition to lefties, was equally efficient. The Braves went to nice lengths to handle his ramping up from final 12 months’s 66 innings; 11 of his 25 begins have been made on six or extra days of relaxation. He made two journeys to the IL within the second half — one in early August on account of forearm tightness and the opposite in September on account of shoulder irritation — and threw simply 31 innings over these last two months. His effectiveness didn’t diminish, at the very least. In his first begin off the IL on Saturday, he threw six innings of two-hit, one-run ball in opposition to the Royals, placing out 9.

Bullpens

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller remade the Padres bullpen earlier than the commerce deadline, including righties Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing and lefty Tanner Scott. With Adam and Scott sliding into the highest setup roles and Hoeing right into a middle-relief slot, the brand new guys mixed for a 1.76 ERA and 26.7% strikeout fee over a mixed 76 2/3 innings with the Padres, and middlemen Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon pitched effectively, too. One have a look at the staff’s pitch-modeling leaderboard makes clear what an improve this was; the brand new guys account for three of San Diego’s prime six relievers by Stuff+ (116 or higher). Scott’s four-seamer, Adam’s changeup, and Hoenig’s splitter (to not point out Estrada’s 84-mph split-change) all positioned on the Statcast leaderboards as a few of the Most worthy choices of their type.

The remade bullpen produced a 3.16 ERA and three.20 FIP after the All-Star break, although the large concern was the late-season struggles of nearer Robert Suarez, who was lit for a 5.24 ERA and 4.46 FIP in August and September whereas placing out simply 17.5% of hitters, down from 26.1% by means of July; he blew three of his final eight save probabilities. Scott, who notched 18 saves with the Marlins and 4 with the Padres, does supply a tried-and-true different in case Shildt wants one. As for Darvish, he’s by no means made a reduction appearances within the majors, however pitched out of the bullpen for Samurai Japan within the 2023 World Baseball Basic.

The Braves had the NL’s finest bullpen by FIP (3.41) and second finest by ERA (3.32), strikeout fee (26.6%), and WAR (6.2), and given the form of their present rotation, they’ll have to rely on their relievers to have a shot at advancing. Raisel Iglesias, who posted a 1.95 ERA and a pair of.65 FIP, is without doubt one of the sport’s prime closers regardless of blowing the save within the first sport Monday, when he allowed two runs on two hits, together with a homer, in one-third of an inning. This season, batters hit .163 or decrease and slugged .279 or decrease in opposition to all 4 of his choices (four-seamer, sinker, slider, and changeup), with whiff charges of 32.5% or greater in opposition to all however the sinker. He returned to pitch a scoreless ninth inning in Monday’s Sport 2, notching his thirty fourth save of the season. Prime setup man Joe Jiménez additionally pitched each video games Monday and was one of many goats within the opener, permitting three runs on three straight hits within the eighth inning with out recording an out, however these three runs have been his first earned runs allowed since August 27. He too bounced again with a scoreless inning within the second sport, and he’s been excellent total (2.62 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 29.6% strikeout fee).

The Braves misplaced setup man A.J. Minter to season-ending hip surgical procedure in August. Pierce Johnson hasn’t been as efficient since moving into the breach, however usually, he’s been more practical in opposition to lefties (holding them to a .267 wOBA) than the unit’s two lefties, Aaron Bummer (.316) and Dylan Lee (.312). Given how gassed Atlanta’s pitching is, count on a good bit of ageless lengthy man Jesse Chavez and 28-year-old rookie Daysbel Hernández, whose 98-mph fastball/slider combo helped him strike out 35.1% of hitters in his 18 innings of late-season work.

Offenses

The Padres have been essentially the most contact-oriented staff within the majors this season; their strikeout fee was practically two proportion factors decrease than some other staff whereas their stroll fee was the NL’s second lowest. This didn’t inhibit their manufacturing, as they ranked sixth within the NL in scoring and residential runs however third in wRC+. Their lineup doesn’t have a Soto-like centerpiece — hey, just one staff does — however they did have 4 gamers hit at the very least 20 homers and put up a wRC+ of 122 or higher: Merrill, Profar, Tatis, and Manny Machado. Tatis (.276/.340/.492, 135 wRC+) hit 21 homers in simply 106 video games and was about as efficient after his September return from a stress response in his proper femur. Profar (.280/.380/.459, 139 wRC+, 24 HR) loved a profession 12 months with the bat after being arguably the worst common participant in baseball final 12 months; his 4.3 WAR represented practically a six-win enchancment. The 21-year-old Merrill (.292/.326/.500, 130 wRC+, 24 HR) made a seamless transition from shortstop to heart area and proved to be the Cardiac Child, hitting six dwelling runs from the seventh inning or later that both tied the sport or gave the Padres the lead. The 32-year-old Machado (.275/.325/.472, 122 wRC+, 29 HR) spent the primary 4 weeks of the season restricted to DH obligation, and he managed simply an 86 wRC+ in April and Could, however from June 1 onward he hit .294/.343/.536 (142 wRC+).

Talking of before-and-after-injury splits, Bogaerts hit for only a 71 wRC+ earlier than struggling a fracture in his left shoulder whereas diving for a ball in late Could; he batted .292/.333/.429 (115 wRC+) upon his mid-July return and completed with a 95 wRC+. That makes him the one Padres common with a mark beneath the league-average 100, however his manufacturing takes on further significance given the lack of Kim, whose harm led the Padres to reverse this spring’s center infield switcheroo. It additionally set off a sequence response, shifting Jake Cronenworth again to second base, with Luis Arraez — who simply claimed his third straight batting title by way of a .313 AVG however a extra modest 109 wRC+ — sharing first base and DH duties with Donovan Solano.

One problem that stands out concerning the Padres is their excessive platoon break up. Their 20-point hole in wRC+ in opposition to righties (116) and lefties (96) was the most important in that path of any staff within the majors, although such gaps in both path aren’t totally unusual among the many playoff groups:

The place this actually hurts the Padres is on the subject of their lefty bats: Arraez (84 wRC+), Merrill (82 wRC+), and Cronenworth (57 wRC+) have been all very unhealthy in opposition to same-side pitching, and even when we increase the samples, neither Arraez nor Cronenworth has carried out effectively in opposition to them over the previous three seasons (94 wRC+ for the previous, 85 wRC+ for the latter). Alternatively (actually), the righty-swinging Bogaerts’ 84 wRC+ in opposition to lefties was uncharacteristic; he has a 134 wRC+ in opposition to them over the previous three seasons.

One different side price noting: The Padres have been simply eighth within the NL in stolen bases and success fee (81%), however they do have 5 lively gamers with between 10 and 16 steals this 12 months — Bogaerts, Machado, Merrill, Profar, and Tatis — none of whom was caught greater than thrice.

The Braves offense gives a marked distinction to that of the Padres, and never simply because they’re on the different excessive of that platoon spectrum. (They mashed lefties, however the Padres aren’t beginning any, d’oh.) Past their middling no. 8 rank within the NL in per-game scoring and wRC+ was the best way they acquired there: They have been second in dwelling runs, fourth in strikeout fee, and second-to-last in steals. Eleven totally different Braves hit at the very least 10 homers, although Marcell Ozuna (39) and Matt Olson (29) have been the one ones with greater than 20. Ozuna was the centerpiece of the offense, hitting .302/.378/.546 (154 wRC+) whereas beginning at DH in all 162 video games, a efficiency that would earn him down-ballot MVP votes, significantly in a 12 months when a DH is more likely to win the award.

Accidents contributed to Atlanta’s low offensive rankings; in any case, Acuña alone accounted for extra stolen bases final 12 months than this 12 months’s complete staff (16 of these have been his, pre-injury). Ozzie Albies, who missed two months on account of a fractured left wrist, took an enormous step backward, hitting simply .251/.303/.404 for a 91 wRC+ (down from 125) and 9 homers (down from 33). Michael Harris II, who missed two months on account of a left hamstring pressure, slipped from a 116 wRC+ to 100 (.266/.306/.424) and from 20 steals to 10, although he’s the one lively participant on the roster with double-digit swipes.

Not each step again was owed to accidents. Orlando Arcia made his first All-Star staff final 12 months however became a Substitute Degree Killer this season, managing only a 72 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR. Riley wasn’t having his sometimes potent season earlier than he fractured his proper hand on August 18. Olson, who not solely performed 162 video games for the third straight 12 months however performed each inning at first base, fell from 54 homers, a .604 SLG, and a 161 wRC+ final 12 months to 29 homers, a .457 SLG, and a 117 wRC+; possibly some relaxation would have helped. The left area platoon involving Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall — with a little bit of end-stage Eddie Rosario thrown in — was Substitute Degree Killer territory till Ramón Laureano took over and hit .296/.327/.505 (129 wRC+) with 10 homers in 67 video games.

Laureano and deadline acquisition Jorge Soler, who hit .243/.356/.493 (135 wRC+) with 9 homers after being acquired from the Giants, contributed to a midseason outfield makeover harking back to 2021 (of which Soler was additionally half). Former Tiger Gio Urshela, who’s now the beginning third baseman, hit a semi-respectable .265/.287/.424 (95 wRC+) whereas changing Riley.

Defenses

The Padres have been the one playoff staff to complete within the purple when it comes to DRS (-3), and so they have been even additional beneath common in UZR (-8.4) and FRV (-13). To be honest, these numbers are considerably weighed down by since-demoted backup catcher Luis Campusano; alternative Elias Díaz and starter Kyle Higashioka are each rather more stable behind the plate. Nonetheless, of their present state the Padres do have points. The return of Tatis from his 10-week absence was offset by the lack of the slick-fielding Kim; Bogaerts’ numbers in his 152-inning pattern at shortstop have been high quality, however the staff clearly prefers him at second. The domino impact of getting Arraez taking part in the sphere means having a DH-caliber first baseman. In the meantime, Tatis didn’t have something near the sort of season that received him final 12 months’s Platinum Glove, and Profar was an actual legal responsibility in left, however Merrill was distinctive in heart.

The Braves are the higher defensive staff primarily based on the metrics, although solely DRS (41) marks them effectively above common; they’re roughly common by UZR (-2.7) and FRV (2). Harris is a standout in heart area, Olson a DRS darling at first base (14 DRS, 2 FRV, 0.4 UZR), and Urshela — lengthy a visually flashy fielder whose metrics haven’t all the time matched up — has carried out effectively in his 304-inning pattern with the Braves. Soler is a real legal responsibility in proper (-11 DRS, -7 FRV, -3.7 UZR), a reminder of why he was solely a DH with the Giants pre-trade.

Even in opposition to a rested opponent, the Padres would appear to be a powerful staff; in any case, Shildt’s membership did tie for the league’s third-best file. With its pitching lined up in opposition to a winded and wounded Atlanta staff, I count on San Diego to maintain enterprise right here after which stick round for an excellent lengthy whereas this October.