Whereas fan bases for non-playoff groups lick their wounds and prepare for the 2025 NFL draft, maybe the best 5 days of soccer ever (beginning Thursday evening) are forward for everybody to get pleasure from. The School Soccer Playoffs will take their subsequent step towards a Nationwide Champion earlier than the NFL playoffs take the stage beginning Saturday evening. Whereas now not known as “Tremendous Wild Card Weekend,” the wild card slate of video games ought to be tremendous anyway.
In a match made in “Arduous Knocks: In Season With the AFC North” heaven, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens renew their heated rivalry whereas a rematch from Brazil, the Inexperienced Bay Packers versus the Philadelphia Eagles, highlights the NFC facet of issues.
The title worth within the playoffs is off the chart with Josh Allen seeking to construct on his, maybe, MVP season, Jim Harbaugh attempting to cease “Chargering” from occurring once more, Lamar Jackson hoping to shake his playoff struggles, Baker Mayfield’s continued redemption arc and rookies Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix attempting to tug off upsets.
Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, amongst others, are hoping to show you may trip a working recreation to success within the NFL’s postseason.
The variety of thrilling potential Tremendous Bowl matchups has us salivating on the potentialities.
Now it’s time to spin all the things ahead from the common season. Whereas we’re a month or so away from discovering out who will hoist the Lombardi Trophy this yr, every spherical of the playoffs guarantees to be thrilling. Making an attempt to foretell the outcomes of those video games, when the most effective are taking part in the most effective, is tough. Bettors on FanDuel, and FanDuel themselves, are in search of each morsel of knowledge to assist make their predictions.
In 2023, DVOA was excellent in predicting matchups in Wild Card weekend so we thought we’d proceed to make use of that analytical piece of information to assist inform our predictions. DVOA breaks down the standard of play in comparison with the league common whereas adjusting for the power of the opponents being performed. It’s one in all a few catch-all analytics measures that assist us perceive the gorgeous recreation of soccer higher.
Apparently, the 2 groups that earned the highest seeds and bye of their convention weren’t the highest general DVOA staff in the course of the common season. For the second yr in a row, that honor went to the Baltimore Ravens with a 41.4$ Complete DVOA, down from 45.5% final yr. The Detroit Lions are second general at 34.8% whereas the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are all the way in which down at eight at 14.7%
The highest 11 Complete DVOA groups made the playoffs and all 14 postseason groups fell throughout the prime 17 in that measure.
To be clear, DVOA isn’t excellent nor would it not declare to foretell the winners of sure video games. Too many variables that can’t be codified, like climate, accidents, officiating and extra, can play a task in a one-game pattern.
Since DVOA has a historical past of being excellent in predicting Wild Card video games, we are able to’t assist however check out this yr’s Wild Card matchups and what their analytics inform us will occur.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Houston Texans
- Total DVOA: Los Angeles ninth vs Houston sixteenth
- Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles twelfth vs Houston twenty sixth
- Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles twelfth vs Houston third
Edge: Chargers – An attention-grabbing matchup with the Texans poor offense (on account of key accidents at receiver primarily) being buoyed by their stellar protection however not sufficient to beat the superbly balanced Los Angeles staff.
Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers
- Total DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs Pittsburgh fifteenth
- Offensive DVOA: Baltimore 1st vs Pittsburgh nineteenth
- Defensive DVOA: Baltimore sixth vs Pittsburgh eighth
Edge: Ravens – Jackson and Henry have taken Baltimore’s offense to a different degree whereas their protection stays stout. Russell Wilson gave the impression to be having a resurgence early within the season however defenses have realized his tendencies and Arthur Smith’s unit hasn’t recovered. The Steelers protection stays superb.
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Payments
- Total DVOA: Denver sixth vs Buffalo 4th
- Offensive DVOA: Denver sixteenth vs Buffalo 2nd
- Defensive DVOA: Denver 4th vs Buffalo eleventh
Edge: Payments – For followers who haven’t watched the Broncos play, this matchup is nearer than anticipated however Denver’s protection has been that good and Sean Payton has Nix taking part in very properly. Buffalo’s protection has been pieced collectively over the season whereas Allen continues to be the tide that lifts all ships with the Payments.
Los Angeles Rams vs Minnesota Vikings
- Total DVOA: Los Angeles seventeenth vs Minnesota seventh
- Offensive DVOA: Los Angeles tenth vs Minnesota fifteenth
- Defensive DVOA: Los Angeles twenty sixth vs Minnesota 2nd
Edge: Vikings – Final yr, Minnesota was seen as a fraud heading into the NFL playoffs however an incredible common season has them ready to shed that label. The Rams benefitted from a down NFC West however have the championship pedigree to not be dominated out regardless of being the lowest-ranked DVOA staff within the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders
- Total DVOA: Tampa Bay eleventh vs Washington tenth
- Offensive DVOA: Tampa Bay seventh vs Washington sixth
- Defensive DVOA: Tampa Bay sixteenth vs Washington twenty third
Edge: Commanders – A surprisingly shut matchup with general DVOA regardless of a major hole in rating between the 2 defenses. Whereas the analytics edge goes to Washington, Tampa Bay has a major expertise benefit on this one.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Inexperienced Bay Packers
- Total DVOA: Philadelphia fifth vs Inexperienced Bay third
- Offensive DVOA: Philadelphia thirteenth vs Inexperienced Bay 4th
- Defensive DVOA: Philadelphia 1st vs Tampa Bay seventh
Edge: Packers – Maybe the largest shock is seeing Inexperienced Bay because the third-best staff within the common season regardless of ending third in their very own division. The lack of Christian Watson can’t be factored into the above information which calls into query whether or not it is best to lean towards the Eagles as an alternative. FanDuel presently has Philadelphia as a 4.5 level favourite.
That DVOA accurately predicted all six video games in 2023’s Wild Card spherical provides credence to its use this yr. The information additionally offers one other piece of knowledge as you make betting selections, focus on the playoffs along with your coworkers or whereas making each day fantasy selections.
We’re excited to see the video games performed on the sphere and see whether or not or not DVOA was in a position to as soon as once more completely predict the Wild Card spherical.
