A 12 months in the past, Cubs middle fielder Cody Bellinger was placing the ending touches on a incredible rebound marketing campaign that noticed him place within the high ten of NL MVP voting and earn his second profession Silver Slugger award. On the heels of back-to-back disastrous campaigns with the Dodgers in 2021 and ’22 that led to him being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year cope with Chicago and slashed a wonderful .307/.356/.525 (136 wRC+) with 26 house runs and 20 stolen bases, setting him up for what appeared certain to be a major payday in free company over the winter.
That, in fact, didn’t come to move. Bellinger was certainly one of a number of free brokers who discovered himself struggling to discover a deal that met expectations, and in the end returned to the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal that included opt-outs after every season. The 29-year-old’s second season in Chicago hasn’t fairly lived as much as his first, as he’s posted a .269/.332/.468 (114 wRC+) slash line in 518 journeys to the plate whereas his elevated .319 BABIP has fallen to a .287 determine that’s extra consistent with his profession norms and his energy manufacturing has dipped to extra intently match his batted ball metrics.
As Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, ponder whether or not or to not train his upcoming opt-out alternative this November, it’s truthful to marvel if there’s any cause for him to think about opting out coming off a worse offensive season than his earlier platform 12 months, which already resulted in a relative disappointment on the open market. Certainly, USA Immediately’s Bob Nightengale wrote this morning that Bellinger is “absolutely anticipated” to stay with the Cubs slightly than exercising his opt-out a returning to free company this winter. Regardless of these expectations, nevertheless, the chance that Bellinger may as an alternative look to hit the open marketplace for the third consecutive offseason can’t be neglected.
In any case, Bellinger’s offensive numbers this season, whereas worse than final 12 months, are nonetheless effectively above league common. Extra importantly, nevertheless, his 2024 manufacturing is usually backed up by his peripheral numbers and seems more likely to be sustainable for the 29-year-old. That’s thanks partially to the outfielder setting a career-best for strikeout fee for the second consecutive season this 12 months, punching out at a 15.1% clip that’s good for Sixteenth-best within the majors this 12 months, simply forward of Bobby Witt Jr. and Jurickson Profar.
That improved mixture of contact and self-discipline on the plate has helped to make up for the downturn in energy manufacturing Bellinger has skilled this 12 months, and remains to be greater than sufficient to make Bellinger one of many high bats at his place within the majors. Amongst certified middle fielders this 12 months, Bellinger’s aforementioned 114 wRC+ this 12 months ranks seventh within the majors whereas his .332 on-base share is tied with Jazz Chisholm Jr. for fourth behind solely AL MVP candidates Aaron Decide and Jarren Duran. Bellinger’s means to play a high quality middle subject whereas additionally delivering above common offense would make him stand out in a free agent class that with out him would have Harrison Bader, who has hit simply .244/.287/.390 (91 wRC+) in 407 journeys to the plate with the Mets this 12 months, as the highest participant out there.
Given the truth that Bellinger additionally has an decide out following the 2025 season, it’s straightforward to think about that he may merely be higher off sticking with the Cubs, accumulating a $27.5MM wage subsequent 12 months, after which returning to free company previous to the 2026 season, when he could be leaving simply $20MM on the desk slightly than the $50MM he’d forgo by opting out this 12 months. Whereas it’s true {that a} dominant offensive season from Bellinger may increase his profile, he’d even be advertising and marketing his age-30 marketing campaign versus his age-29 season and coming into free company on the flawed facet of 30 can considerably depress a participant’s incomes potential. What’s extra, he’d face far more competitors in middle subject subsequent 12 months: The 2025-26 free agent class presently tasks to incorporate different notable middle subject choices like Cedric Mullins, Willi Castro, and Trent Grisham, to say nothing of the chance that Bader indicators a one-year deal and returns to the open market himself subsequent winter.
Bellinger’s standing amongst free company’s high middle fielders could be diminished additional by the truth that, he would virtually assuredly not be utilized in middle subject subsequent 12 months if he have been to stay with Chicago. The membership’s recently-graduated high prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong has already taken over middle subject frequently in current weeks, pairing elite protection on the place with 9 homers and 27 stolen bases in simply 356 journeys to the plate this 12 months. The 22-year-old’s 90 wRC+ on the season doesn’t instantly soar off the web page, but it surely’s value noting that he’s improved drastically over the course of the season with a .269/.319/.477 slash line (119 wRC+) for the reason that begin of July.
With Crow-Armstrong all however sure to be the membership’s on a regular basis middle fielder in 2025, that will probably go away Bellinger pressured to maneuver to proper subject every day ought to he play for the Cubs subsequent 12 months, placing extra strain on his bat to provide at a stage commensurate with the expectations of the place. Spectacular as Bellinger’s offense has been for a middle fielder, he ranks simply twentieth amongst 49 certified outfielders this 12 months when it comes to wRC+, leaving him as a considerably middling possibility offensively for an outfield nook. With out a vital step ahead offensively subsequent 12 months, it’s straightforward to think about Bellinger leaving cash on the desk by not exercising his opt-out this 12 months and returning to free company whereas he’s nonetheless beneath 30 years outdated and taking part in middle subject on a semi-regular foundation.
