It might be unfair to the New York Mets to scale back their common season to its triumphant climax, an epic, whiplash-inducing, decisive two-run homer by a hobbled Francisco Lindor throughout a de-facto postseason sport necessitated by a hurricane. The Mets clinched a postseason berth and a visit again to Milwaukee for a Wild Card date with the NL Central champion Brewers.
These organizations share some historical past and DNA that makes for heightened intrigue, and in a single case fairly actually. Recall that these groups performed one another a few days in the past because the Mets fought for his or her playoff lives. Additionally they squared off on Opening Day and almost got here to blows as (presently injured) Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil took exception to a Rhys Hoskins slide. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns was as soon as a younger upstart Brewers GM and (later) POBO who was employed away in a really telegraphed, long-rumored transfer on the finish of final season. Every crew has a Megill brother (Tylor or Trevor) on its pitching employees.
Except for these options, the groups are fairly totally different. Monday was not the primary time the Mets had stared down the potential dying of their season. They had been comfortably beneath .500 for a lot of the first half of the 12 months and hit their nadir in early-June once they had been 11 video games beneath and sporting playoff odds under 10%. From the beginning of the season by the top of August, New York’s playoff odds had been above 50% for under six days in complete. A September surge coupled with the Diamondbacks’ collapse allowed the Mets to eek into the match, and now a crew that started the 2023 season with the largest payroll in baseball by a sizeable margin enters the 2024 playoffs as a plucky underdog that has developed a battle-tested edge over the last two months of play.
The Brewers, however, have been coasting since June. They had been the primary crew within the league to clinch a playoff spot, they usually tout the third-best run differential (+136) in all of baseball, behind solely the Dodgers and Yankees. Nearly precisely a 12 months in the past, it was introduced that front-end starter Brandon Woodruff would require shoulder surgical procedure. His loss and the pre-season commerce of Corbin Burnes made the NL Central really feel prefer it was up for grabs. As an alternative, Milwaukee’s younger core of hitters carried it to a comfy division title regardless of a season-ending harm to All-Star outfielder Christian Yelich.
At a median age of 26.4 years previous, the Brewers place participant group was the second youngest within the Nationwide League, behind solely the rebuilding Washington Nationals. The Brewers ranked fourth within the league in place participant WAR this 12 months regardless of comfortably having the bottom slugging proportion among the many different golf equipment within the high 10. Whereas Milwaukee has a number of harmful energy hitters (most notably catcher William Contreras, shortstop Willy Adames, and tooled-up prodigy Jackson Chourio), the group has largely succeeded through secondary abilities like velocity, protection, and plate self-discipline. The Brewers had been second in baseball in crew stroll price, second in crew stolen bases (second baseman Brice Turang led Milwaukee with 50 luggage), first in Base Runs (by so much), and third in defensive Outs Above Common. The Brewers have three shortstop-quality defenders manning their non-first base infield positions and arguably boast the perfect all-around protection of any playoff crew.
The Mets, however, succeed with energy. Although not distinctive or dominant (they did barely sneak into the playoffs, in any case) they ranked within the league-wide high 10 of most measures of energy expertise and manufacturing (SLG, ISO, HardHit%, and Barrel%). Lindor had an MVP-caliber season, younger nook infielder Mark Vientos hit 27 residence runs in simply 110 video games, Pete Alonso notched one more 30-homer season, Brandon Nimmo smacked 22 dingers, and regardless of middling homer totals on the season, each Francisco Alvarez and J.D. Martinez are highly effective, harmful hitters.
After which there’s 34-year-old second baseman (and pop star) Jose Iglesias, who’s getting into the postseason on an epic heater. He had successful in every of Monday’s video games towards Atlanta and is using a 22-game hitting streak. He slashed .341/.387/.456 this season, having performed fairly usually since June. McNeil’s damaged wrist put extra stress on Iglesias to carry out down the stretch, and he has delivered effectively above what anybody might’ve anticipated.
Sport 1’s pitching matchup options Brewers “ace” Freddy Peralta towards Mets righty Luis Severino, who was a shrewd and efficient reclamation pickup by the Mets throughout the offseason after their high-profile Scherzer/Verlander employees flopped the 12 months earlier than. The 2024 season was Severino’s first absolutely wholesome one since 2018. Peralta simply accomplished his second straight 30-plus begin marketing campaign, and he set a career-high for innings pitched (173 2/3). All 4 of Peralta’s pitches garnered above-average whiff charges.
Neither crew has a very sturdy rotation, and each will possible rely closely upon their respective bullpen in the event that they’re going to make a deep run into October. The Mets start the Wild Card spherical on their again foot on this regard, having simply taxed their bullpen throughout 18 innings in Monday’s doubleheader. Huascar Brazobán and Adam Ottavino pitched in each of Monday’s video games. Mets nearer Edwin Díaz threw 40 pitches Monday and 26 pitches the day earlier than. All three of them could also be unavailable — or at the very least fatigued — within the first two video games of this sequence.
Distinction that with the Brewers bullpen. Solely DL Corridor and Hoby Milner pitched on Sunday, giving the remainder of Milwaukee’s bullpen at the very least two days to relaxation. That features nearer Devin Williams, who has been completely dominant since his return from a number of stress fractures in his again. Since he was activated simply earlier than the commerce deadline, Williams has the second-highest Okay/9 price (15.78) amongst relievers, behind solely Edwin Díaz, and has posted a 1.25 ERA. He has not allowed a run since August 21. The Mets could possibly counter among the funky-looking deliveries that the Brewers run out of their bullpen with Jesse Winker, Harrison Bader, or Tyrone Taylor coming off the bench, relying on who begins. However, if solely because of the circumstances attributable to Hurricane Helene that compelled the Mets to cowl two video games the day earlier than the beginning of this sequence, Milwaukee’s bullpen would appear to have a giant benefit.
On this sequence, now we have a story reversal of the 2 franchises and markets concerned. The Mets — a monetary juggernaut that snuck into the playoffs in a 12 months that was alleged to be a “step again” — now really feel like they’re enjoying with home cash, whereas the Brewers, who carried out throughout the common season like one of many sport’s finest groups, examine most of the containers of a typical postseason contender, particularly the protection and bullpen ones. The winner will earn the proper to tango with the Phillies.
