Can anybody cease the Mets? That’s not a query I anticipated to be asking this yr, until it was “Can anybody cease the Mets from signing marquee free brokers?” or “Can anybody cease the Mets from imploding in probably the most Mets-y method conceivable?” However because the Nationwide League Division Collection begins, the Mets are on a type of team-of-destiny runs that seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There’s no deficit they’ll’t overcome, no lead they’ll’t squander after which retake within the subsequent inning. They’re upping the diploma of problem considerably beginning Saturday, although: The Phillies have been among the finest groups in baseball all yr, and so they’re rested and prepared for what guarantees to be an thrilling sequence.
A story of the tape – Francisco Lindor is sweet at x, Bryce Harper is sweet at y, Zack Wheeler and Kodai Senga will sq. off in Recreation 1, so on and so forth – doesn’t really feel like the correct approach to describe this sequence. As a substitute, I’m going to concentrate on how every workforce tries to win, and the way these plans are probably to go awry.
The Mets have thrived offensively this yr with a easy blueprint: energy on the high of the lineup and Jose Iglesias by some means doing every part else. Lindor is so good that he’s nearly an offense unto himself: He led the Mets in runs (107), RBI (91), steals (29), on-base share (.344), slugging share (.500), and just about every part else you may think about, aside from house runs (33). In that class, he completed one off the workforce lead behind Pete Alonso. Alonso had a down yr in 2024, however he’s superb on the ability the Mets most want from him: clobbering homers to drive in Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and typically Iglesias. Mark Vientos capabilities as a second Alonso; he’s there to hit homers or advance runners with situational hitting, however he’s recent out of situational hitting.
This plan has labored fairly nicely all yr, and it’s labored significantly nicely within the string of playoff and playoff-like video games they’ve gained this week. The highest 5 hitters mixed to drive in all of the runs in Monday’s playoff-clinching win towards the Braves. Iglesias and Vientos keyed Tuesday’s victory over the Brewers. A 3-run Alonso homer was all of the scoring they wanted to ship Milwaukee house Thursday evening. It’s hardly an unsustainable plan; the Mets have been seventh in wRC+ (109) and likewise runs scored (768) this yr, near-doppelgängers for the Phillies.
What may go mistaken with New York’s offense? It’s fairly simple to know. If Lindor, Alonso, and Vientos aren’t supplying the ability, runs are arduous to return by. Even with Iglesias handing over a career-best season as a slap-hitting spark plug, the Mets play station to station. They’re one of many worst baserunning groups within the majors. Lindor is the most important exception to this rule, although Starling Marte, Tyrone Taylor, and Nimmo are additionally keen to take an additional base right here and there. For probably the most half, runs come both from the mixed excellence of the workforce’s greatest hitters or from stringing collectively a ton of singles to drive house among the plodders.
Shutting down the Mets would possibly sound easy – hold their good hitters off the board – nevertheless it’s not simple. Alonso and Vientos crush fastballs. Nimmo and Lindor excel towards chase-seeking secondaries. Iglesias will swing at something and regularly make contact – and this yr, he’s turning most of that contact into flared singles. One-trick pony pitchers who lean on one or the opposite of a nasty slider or large fastball will run into bother towards the Mets.
Fortunately for the Phillies, that doesn’t describe their starters in any respect. Wheeler is a five-trick pony, at minimal: He throws six pitches, and solely his split-change is under common. He additionally has nice command and pitches deep into video games. I imply, clearly he does: He’s one of many perfect pitchers in baseball, and he has been for the reason that day he went to Philadelphia. Aaron Nola is an in a position second banana; he’ll have his biggest benefit towards Alonso and Vientos because of a hammer curveball.
Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez may have their work minimize out for them on this sequence – lefty sinkerballers don’t match up nicely towards the Mets’ righty energy bats. Nonetheless, they’re glorious choices as no. 3 and 4 starters. The third and fourth video games of the sequence are sandwiched by journey days, and Wheeler and Nola usually give the bullpen a break on their begins. That units the Phillies as much as go bullpen-heavy when their lefties are on the mound and assault the highest of the Mets order with a succession of nice relievers.
The Philadelphia bullpen was among the finest within the majors all yr, a lot in order that it’s nonetheless a high unit regardless of buying and selling away a number of contributing relievers on the deadline. That power might be blunted considerably towards the Mets, although; New York completely crushed lefty pitching this yr, and the Phillies have three standout southpaw relievers. The most effective spot to deploy a lefty might be towards the Lindor-Vientos/Iglesias-Nimmo portion of the order, however that’s not even superb.
Nonetheless, the Phillies are deep. Carlos Estévez, Jeff Hoffman, Orion Kerkering, and even José Ruiz deliver strikeout stuff from the correct aspect. If I have been managing the Phillies, I’d hold rotating matchups to forestall Vientos and Alonso from seeing any of those arms too usually. I’d combine in among the good lefties towards them in low-leverage spots, and perhaps even prepare for a Taijuan Walker sighting.
Controlling the highest half of the lineup is quite a lot of the problem when dealing with the Mets, and the Phillies definitely have the arms to do it. However baseball being what it’s, that’s no assure of success. Lindor, Nimmo, and Alonso have hit the most important homers of the yr for the Mets, all three this week. They got here off of righty relievers with ERAs of three.67, 1.98, and 1.25, respectively. A method this sequence may go: Philadelphia sends its greatest pitchers on the Mets, and the Mets come out victorious.
In fact, the Phillies get to bat too. In some methods, they’re constructed equally to their rivals; the highest of their order options two energy threats and a multi-talented shortstop, and the remainder of the hitters aren’t almost nearly as good. Of their case, although, the shortstop looks as if a fairly clear third banana as an alternative of your entire offensive id of the workforce. Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the Phillies offense in some ways. They’ve comparable skillsets and have produced comparable worth this yr. You’ll wrestle to make them chase. They’ll swing out of their footwear making an attempt to hit homers. They could strike out in consequence – however they have an inclination to take action on their very own phrases, taking large hacks at pitches that they’ll obliterate in the event that they make contact.
Trea Turner bats between them and does just a little little bit of every part. I’m anticipating him to amp up the baserunning aggression in October; this was by far the worst baserunning yr of his profession, however the playoffs look like time to eschew sensible long-term well being administration and put your foot on the gasoline pedal. Even when he isn’t stealing bases and making aggressive developments, although, he’s an awesome hitter. He’ll get to face a ton of southpaws because of his lineup place between two lefty sluggers, and he’s been 10% higher with the platoon benefit over his prolonged profession.
Like its counterpart in New York, the Philly lineup falls off after its high guys. Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm bat fourth and fifth in some order most days, and at occasions they’ve been nice: Castellanos has a 132 wRC+ within the second half of the season, and Bohm made the All-Star workforce because of a scorching first half. However that scorching streak from Castellanos introduced his profession mark with the Phillies as much as a 103 wRC+, and 105 for the 2024 season. In the meantime, Bohm cooled off arduous within the second half (90 wRC+).
I feel the important thing to the Mets offense is how a lot the highest guys can do harm towards superb opposition. I feel that the important thing to the Phillies lineup, however, is whether or not the underside half could make life simpler for Harper and mates. Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh appear like platoon bats at this level of their careers. Johan Rojas and Edmundo Sosa are the opposite half of these platoons, however they hardly strike concern into opposing pitchers. J.T. Realmuto is the wild card right here; he obtained higher because the yr went on, in stark distinction to what you’d count on from a 33-year-old catcher. If he’s extra MVP candidate than defensive specialist who can hit just a little, the lineup will look deeper and scarier for Mets pitchers. If he and Castellanos flip into pumpkins, the workforce is perhaps counting on Wheeler and Nola to win quite a lot of 2-1 video games.
Talking of 2-1 duels, the Mets rotation traces up pretty nicely towards the Phillies, although it merely doesn’t have the identical firepower as Philadelphia does in its rotation. Senga will get the beginning in Recreation 1, however with solely 19 2/3 innings pitched throughout all ranges this yr due to a number of accidents, he’s most likely not going to pitch deep into the sport. Tylor Megill would’ve been subsequent in line to attract that begin, so he’ll presumably be available as an extended reliever if obligatory. Senga’s look might be extraordinarily quick; the final time he threw a number of aggressive innings got here in the midst of July in a minor league sport, and even that look lasted solely three innings.
Luis Severino was Senga’s alternative atop the rotation this yr; relying on how Senga seems to be in Recreation 1, both he or Severino would presumably draw a Recreation 5 project. Because of the best way the schedule traces up, Severino can be on common relaxation for that one even after he pitches Recreation 2, a boon to the Mets after they performed 5 video games in 4 days this week. The Senga/Megill sport is the hardest one to determine; I feel that will probably be a de facto bullpen sport until Senga seems to be dominant and covers not less than a number of innings, which is mainly unknowable at this level.
When the sequence shifts again to New York, the Mets will deliver out their lefties: Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana. Manaea was Severino’s equal this yr, and I feel I’d take him over Severino if I had to decide on one in every of them for one sport solely, however his relaxation schedule gained’t enable him to go twice within the sequence. Quintana continues to be the identical pitcher – he’s artful and might nonetheless spin a pleasant curveball, however his nice expertise is in bulk innings, not dominance. If he can get the Phillies chasing within the early going, he would possibly put up a begin to rival his six scoreless innings towards the Brewers in Recreation 3 of the Wild Card Collection. If he begins falling behind within the rely, it is perhaps an extended evening for the Mets, and a brief one for him.
I count on the Mets to be extraordinarily cautious about letting Schwarber and Harper see the identical pitcher for a 3rd time. I’d be keen to present New York’s two lefty starters an opportunity the third time via, however I wouldn’t let Megill attempt it if the sport is shut, and I wouldn’t really feel nice about Senga’s (assuming he may even face 18+ batters) or Severino’s possibilities. That places the workforce in a tough spot, as a result of it doesn’t have many efficient lefty relievers. David Peterson is the most suitable choice, however he’s a swingman, not a high-leverage arm. Danny Younger is the one different lefty on the squad, and whereas he’s a traditional sinker/slider LOOGY, I wouldn’t be tripping throughout myself to get him into the sport towards two top-tier sluggers.
In a method, although, that lack of lefties might be releasing. Platoon matchups aren’t as essential as simply utilizing good pitchers, and if the Mets aren’t forcing themselves to play the handedness sport, they’ll flip their greatest relievers unfastened towards the highest of the lineup and work every part else out later. Edwin Díaz is comfy getting into video games earlier than the ninth inning and likewise comfy getting greater than three outs; I’d take him over Peterson and Younger any day. Reed Garrett, José Buttó, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek may all draw lefty-slugger obligation as nicely. The important thing might be various up the seems to be whereas deploying good relievers in good spots, which is simpler stated than executed. Carlos Mendoza has executed job of it up to now, although. He’ll get an opportunity to sink or swim on a much bigger stage beginning Saturday.
Due to the construction of this text, it most likely looks as if I feel the sequence is a toss-up. I don’t; the lineups is perhaps comparable, however the rotations aren’t. I’d name the groups evenly matched in Video games 3 and 4, however Wheeler is miles higher than anybody on the Mets workers. That’s two video games the place the Phillies may have a giant benefit within the early innings. Nola is not any slouch both. ZiPS provides the Phillies an enormous 66% likelihood of advancing because of their edge in beginning pitching. Playing markets are almost as bullish; they’ve the Phillies round 65% to win the sequence. Our easy projection-based mannequin provides them a 64% likelihood; PECOTA has it 60/40. The Phillies are undoubtedly the higher workforce.
A much less intrepid preview author would possibly go away it at that. I’ll exit on a limb, although, and say that I feel these odds are too low on the Mets. They aren’t 50% to win this sequence, clearly. The Phillies are better-rested and gained the NL East by six video games. However the two groups had the identical BaseRuns document. The Mets didn’t simply get scorching this week; they’ve the most effective document in baseball since June 1. They’ve outscored the Phillies over that stretch and allowed fewer runs. They have been really abysmal within the early going this yr, and full-season stats and projections do a greater job of predicting playoff success than arbitrary-endpoint streaks, however this isn’t some scrappy underdog squad. The Mets are legit and fairly able to going toe-to-toe with anybody on this juggernaut-light yr.
So my prediction? Mets in 4. I’m going towards what the numbers say, and I don’t assume I’m 50% prone to be proper. However I do assume that the broader baseball public is simply too assured in Philly’s possibilities, and I like going towards the grain. So there you’ve it. In a matchup the place the groups are extra alike than they’re completely different, small edges may decide the sequence. Gimme “OMG” remixes with Pitbull over a will-they-won’t-they relationship with “Dancing On My Personal,” significantly in the event that they aren’t going with the unique Robyn model. And if I decide the Mets after which they get drubbed in three lopsided video games? Properly, what’s extra Mets-y than that? It’s a no-lose proposition.
