It seems like Nathan Eovaldi made the fitting determination. To this point this offseason, the pitching market has been a lot hotter than projected, and because the Winter Conferences kicked into excessive gear in Dallas on Tuesday, that pattern continued. The 34-year-old right-hander won’t remorse for a second declining his $20 million participant choice with the Rangers. After signing a two-year, $34 million contract (plus that choice) earlier than the 2023 season, Eovaldi will stay in Texas on a model new three-year, $75 million deal. That $25 million common annual worth far outstrips the projections of $16 million by Ben Clemens, $20 million from our readers, and $22 million from MLB Commerce Rumors. As Nick Deeds famous for MLBTR, Eovaldi is barely the third pitcher prior to now 15 years to signal a deal for greater than two years that begins in his age-35 season or later.
Talking of pitchers who’re sufficiently old to recollect the band the Wallflowers, the Texas rotation options an terrible lot of them. Eovaldi rejoins Jon Grey, Tyler Mahle, and Cody Bradford, together with no matter presumably small, magnificent portion of a season Jacob deGrom can present. In case you’re maintaining observe at house, the common age of these pitchers is 32.28 years. Bradford is the child, as he’ll be a young 27 when the season begins. Dane Dunning, who took a step again final season (and turns 30 the week after subsequent), may even be obtainable. The rotation may additionally get an infusion of youth from Kumar Rocker, who completely annihilated the minors and pitched properly in three huge league begins throughout the 2024 season, and Jack Leiter, who struggled mightily in 9 huge league appearances.
Which may simply be sufficient beginning pitching depth to make it by means of the season, however – apart from free brokers Andrew Heaney and Max Scherzer – the Rangers are working again a rotation that completed the season ranked twenty second in WAR and twenty first in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. Even of their championship 2023 season, the Rangers ranked simply 18th in all 4 of these metrics. And it’s not as in the event that they’re clearly due for an enormous bounce-back 12 months. If that group goes to meaningfully enhance, it’ll imply deGrom staying wholesome and both Rocker or Leiter making that final huge soar, and neither of these propositions is what you’d contemplate a certain factor. Eovaldi is a confirmed big-game pitcher with a 3.05 profession ERA and a 9-3 report within the postseason. (In fact, if the Rangers hope to avail themselves of that talent set, they’ll must exit and discover roughly one whole bullpen’s value of relievers, however that’s a dialog for a distinct day).
Eovaldi’s bread and butter is a unbelievable splitter, which he has been leaning on increasingly more every of the final 4 seasons. In 2024, the pitch was as much as a 31% utilization price and it was as efficient as ever. Over the previous three seasons, Statcast has the pitch value 16 runs, making it the Twentieth-most useful offspeed pitch in baseball. Eovaldi additionally depends on a stable cutter and the occasional breaking pitch, and though the stuff fashions are unanimous of their disdain for his four-seamer, the pitch has carried out properly and its 95.4-mph common velocity remains to be above the league common. He offers up much more arduous contact than any pitcher needs to be comfy with, however he induces loads of chases and groundouts, avoiding walks and placing out sufficient batters to get by. In 2024, his ERA ballooned from 2.97 within the first half to 4.81 within the second half, however the underlying numbers regarded pretty related.
Holding Eovaldi round could not increase the rotation’s ceiling all that a lot, however it actually reinforces the ground. In 2024, his 170.2 innings and 29 begins made him the one certified Rangers pitcher, and his 3.80 ERA (which matched his 3.83 FIP practically completely) ranked second among the many crew’s starters, behind Bradford. Over the 2 years of his earlier deal, Eovaldi’s 5.1 WAR led the Rangers, with Grey and Heaney the one different pitchers above 2.0. Over the previous 5 seasons, Eovaldi’s 12.7 WAR ranks Twentieth amongst all starters, and he’s additionally been a top-30 starter by way of each innings pitched and video games began. The final time Eovaldi ran an xFIP above 4.00 or a DRA- above 100 was 2019. All of that is to say that by way of efficiency, Eovaldi is among the most constant pitchers round, and for a Rangers crew that’s so depending on the supply of deGrom and the emergence of Rocker and Leiter, consistency is a useful commodity. In case you set his age apart, there’s no motive to count on Eovaldi’s efficiency to out of the blue deteriorate.
Sadly, nothing lasts perpetually. The Rangers don’t have the posh of setting Eovaldi’s age apart, and consistency isn’t nearly efficiency. Eovaldi carries his personal important damage danger. He has already had two Tommy John surgical procedures, and prior to now three seasons, he’s missed time on account of each shoulder irritation and a forearm pressure, two physique components that set alarm bells ringing within the thoughts of any baseball fan. He’s surpassed 27 begins simply thrice in his 13-year profession, and he’s now beneath contract by means of his age-37 season. Mix that damage historical past with the chance of easy age-based decline, and suddenly, the possibilities that Eovaldi pitches three full, wholesome seasons at his present efficiency stage look fairly small.
The Rangers are actually conscious of these dangers, however Eovaldi ranked seventeenth on our High 50 Free Brokers record for a motive, and moreover, you strive going out and discovering a pitcher who carries no damage danger. Eovaldi is coming off two seasons wherein he put up 2.4 and a pair of.7 WAR, and made his second All-Star recreation. He additionally went 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA throughout the Rangers’ 2023 championship run, clinching the World Sequence with six scoreless innings in Sport 5. There’s so much to love within the satan they know.
