Apr 18, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Cleveland Guardians catcher Bo Naylor (23) circles the bases on a solo residence run in opposition to the Pittsburgh Pirates throughout the third inning at PNC Park. Obligatory Credit score: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Pictures Yesterday’s over/beneath wager was clean crusing — surprisingly led extra by Ben Vigorous than Paul Skenes — and each gambler within the historical past of mankind needs all of them got here that simple. Sadly, that’s not the way it works.
We’re going to hunt out one other comparable consequence from the identical venue to shut out the week, with the Pittsburgh Pirates internet hosting the Cleveland Guardians and attempting to keep away from a three-game sweep.
One of many Pirates’ finest beginning pitchers, Mitch Keller, attracts the task right here. He’s off to a strong begin this season, recording a high quality begin in all however one in all his 4 outings. If not for a tough efficiency through which he was tagged by the New York Yankees in Pittsburgh’s residence opener, Keller would have a much more engaging ERA (4.30) and WHIP (1.35) subsequent to his identify.
Though the Iowa native has skilled a decline in strikeouts — not simply early this yr however by means of 2024 general — there are nonetheless issues to love about Keller, particularly when he’s in the best spot.
This matchup in opposition to the Guardians appears like a type of spots. First off, it’s a house recreation for Keller, who has typically pitched significantly higher inside the pleasant confines of PNC Park than on the highway. In 71 residence video games (70 begins), the 29-year-old holds a 4.07 ERA whereas limiting opponents to only 0.81 homers allowed per 9 innings.
Our Present Finest Gives
1
Declare your Particular Decide by way of Code + First Time Deposit as much as $250 in bonus!
T&Cs apply, 18+
2
100% as much as $100
T&Cs apply, 18+
3
100% as much as $500
T&Cs apply, 18+
4
$65 worth with only a $10+ deposit
T&Cs apply, 18+
Distinction that with a 5.14 ERA and 1.27 HR/9 in 66 contests (65 begins) exterior of Pittsburgh, and the variations are stark.
Keller’s potential to maintain the ball within the park at residence will serve him effectively on this matchup. Cleveland is tied for ninth in baseball in workforce residence runs, so stopping the lengthy ball may very well be a deciding think about whether or not he goes deep within the outing — or not less than turns in a high quality begin.
Notably, just one residence run has been hit off Keller thus far this season. If he can navigate the highest half of Cleveland’s batting order, he ought to be capable of proceed protecting the ball within the yard, particularly contemplating there’s no important energy menace past Carlos Santana within the No. 5 spot.
On the opposite facet, Logan Allen can also be doing job of limiting the lengthy ball, permitting only one residence run by means of his first few begins. After a rocky season debut, the previous second-round draft choose has bounced again with a pair of sturdy outings and should now be tapping into the promise he confirmed when he first debuted.
In 2023, Allen impressed as a rookie, going 7-8 with a 3.81 ERA whereas practically averaging a strikeout per inning. Final season didn’t go as deliberate — he was even despatched down just a few instances — however the present model of Allen seems to be so much like that strong rookie marketing campaign.
Allen began turning heads throughout spring coaching, the place he posted a pointy 1.89 ERA and struck out 19 batters in 19 innings.
Pittsburgh may very well be one other favorable matchup. As famous in our beneath wager yesterday, the Pirates are one of many worst offensive groups to start out the yr — and even worse in opposition to left-handed pitching. They rank twenty fourth in workforce batting common in opposition to lefties (.195), twenty seventh in on-base proportion (.263) and twenty seventh in slugging proportion (.302).
And it doesn’t cease there. The Bucs additionally strike out at a excessive clip in opposition to southpaws, fanning as soon as each three at-bats. Yuck.
This complete, nonetheless, mustn’t generate a “yuck” response. Anticipate some high quality beginning pitching to take us residence.
Decide: UNDER 8 (-102, DraftKings)
2025 MLB Betting Document: 14-12-1, -0
Over/Unders: 12-8-1
Props: 2-3
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Outcomes: Guardians-Pirates Beneath 8.5 (WIN), Chris Sale Over 17.5 Outs (LOSS)
Every wager graded as if to win one unit until in any other case indicated.
Observe me on X (previously Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential further picks.
Our Present Finest Gives
1
Declare your Particular Decide by way of Code + First Time Deposit as much as $250 in bonus!
T&Cs apply, 18+
2
100% as much as $100
T&Cs apply, 18+
3
100% as much as $500
T&Cs apply, 18+
4
$65 worth with only a $10+ deposit
T&Cs apply, 18+
