Walker Buehler has been among the many hottest targets on the rotation marketplace for groups looking for upside on short-term offers, and Joel Sherman of the New York Publish provides the Mets to the rising listing of groups with curiosity within the longtime Dodgers righty. Buehler has additionally reportedly drawn curiosity from the Braves, Yankees and even the low-payroll Athletics.
The Mets stand to lose three members of their 2024 rotation, with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana all reaching free company this offseason. They’ll even be with out Christian Scott, their high pitching prospect who made his MLB debut in ’24, for many or all the 2025 season after he underwent UCL surgical procedure. The Mets already replenished a few of these innings with final evening’s settlement to signal veteran righty Frankie Montas to a two-year contract, however there’s a transparent want for some extra assist.
Buehler, 30, was as soon as one of many Nationwide League’s most promising younger pitchers however has seen that trajectory slowed by accidents. He pitched simply 65 innings in 2022 and missed all the 2023 season whereas recovering from the second Tommy John surgical procedure of his profession. His World Sequence heroics nonetheless loom massive within the minds of most followers, however Buehler’s 2024 outcomes on the entire had been usually dismal. He totaled solely 75 1/3 innings and did so with a 5.38 ERA and the worst fee stats of his profession. Even in his first postseason look, the Padres roughed him up for six runs in 5 innings through the Nationwide League Division Sequence.
Buehler’s velocity was down almost two miles per hour from its 2020 peak, whereas his 18.6% strikeout fee and eight.1% stroll fee had been approach off from his prior profession ranges (27% and 6.3%, respectively). This previous season’s paltry 8.2% swinging-strike fee ranked a hundred and ninetieth out of the 204 large league pitchers who tossed no less than 70 innings on the 12 months. His profession fee coming into the 12 months had been a pointy 11.6%.
Whether or not Buehler can recapture some or all of his 2018-21 type is a query somebody pays a superb bit of money to seek out out. Over these 4 years, he mixed to log a 2.82 earned run common in 564 innings, fanning 27.7% of opponents in opposition to a 6.1% stroll whereas sitting within the higher 90s together with his heater. That upside is tantalizing, nevertheless it’s additionally been three years and one main elbow surgical procedure since we’ve seen that model of Buehler with any actual consistency. The Dodgers might’ve made him a $21.05MM qualifying supply in hopes of maintaining him however as an alternative declined to make that supply. The shortage of draft decide compensation hanging over Buehler’s head will certainly improve his enchantment, nevertheless it’s additionally maybe a purple flag that the crew that is aware of him finest opted in opposition to that one-year supply (regardless of possessing among the deepest pockets in MLB).
Buehler matches Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns’ ostensible choice for shorter-term offers that preserve roster flexibility. As Sherman factors out, Stearns inked ten free brokers final 12 months throughout his first season in charge of the Mets and solely assured a second 12 months to Sean Manaea (whose contract gave him the precise to decide out of that second 12 months, which he in the end selected to do). Throughout his time because the Brewers’ president of baseball ops, Stearns equally prevented the deep waters of the free agent market.
It’s nonetheless not totally clear whether or not that prior mentality will proceed to drive his strikes in Queens, nevertheless. The Brewers by no means had anyplace close to the extent of spending capability the Mets possess, so it’s solely pure that Stearns eschewed dangerous long-term commitments to free brokers throughout his time in Milwaukee. And whereas he did so final offseason with the Mets, that was partly as a result of the 2024 season was largely seen as a transitional 12 months whereas the Mets waited for lifeless cash from the Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and James McCann offers (amongst a couple of smaller-scale examples) to come back off the books.
The Mets at the moment are about $150MM shy of their 2024 spending ranges, per RosterResource. A notable portion of that’s earmarked for a hopeful signing of Juan Soto, in fact, however there’s no purpose the Mets couldn’t take a extra aggressive stance elsewhere in free company and dealer some lengthier and extra impactful offers for beginning pitchers.
What kind of offers Buehler instructions might in the end boil down to non-public choice. Sherman suggests there are golf equipment with curiosity on one-year preparations and others open to the concept of multi-year offers with opt-out alternatives. Speculatively talking, Buehler would seem best-positioned if he takes a deal that permits him to return to the market subsequent winter, whether or not that’s a straight one-year pact or two years with an opt-out. Doing so might place him as a candidate for a nine-figure deal if he bounces again in 2025. Nevertheless, if he needs to max out proper now, there might conceivably be groups keen to supply medium-length contracts with lighter annual values than he’d obtain on a straight one-year deal or on a two-year pact with an opt-out.
