The Mariners have suffered by means of a reasonably horrible stretch during the last 5 or so weeks. After blowing a 10-game lead within the AL West throughout a 24-game span — the quickest that any staff has ever surrendered such a big divisional lead — they enter play Friday a recreation behind the first-place Astros and three.5 video games out of the ultimate AL Wild Card spot. Over their final 30 video games, they’ve gone 10-20 and have scored a measly 3.4 runs per recreation whereas their pitching employees has allowed the fewest runs within the American League. Issues obtained worse earlier this week, after they have been swept by the Angels and misplaced each Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford to accidents. Rodríguez sprained his proper ankle and there’s no timetable for his return; Crawford, who fractured his proper pinky, is anticipated to overlook 4-6 weeks. Even earlier than these two core items of the beleaguered lineup landed on the injured listing, Seattle desperately wanted an infusion of expertise onto their roster.
With that want exacerbated by these two accidents, the M’s wasted little or no time making their first addition forward of Tuesday’s commerce deadline: On Thursday evening, they acquired outfielder Randy Arozarena from the Rays. In trade, Tampa Bay obtained minor league outfielder Aidan Smith (40 FV), right-handed pitcher Brody Hopkins (45+ FV), and a participant to be named later. Dan Szymborski put collectively a hypothetical model of this commerce only a few days in the past and nailed all of the broad strokes: The Mariners obtained the offensive improve they wanted and the Rays obtained some actually attention-grabbing prospects that they’ll now sculpt.
The previous AL Rookie of the 12 months and All-Star obtained off to a agonizingly gradual begin to the season; by means of the primary month of play, he was slashing .143/.220/.241 with three residence runs, a strikeout fee only a hair under 30%, and a 37 wRC+. He began to tug himself out of his droop in Could (104 wRC+) however was nonetheless underperforming. Since June 1, although, he’s been one of many hottest hitters within the league, placing collectively a .284/.397/.507 slash line with seven residence runs and a 161 wRC+ throughout 179 plate appearances.
As Jay Jaffe famous again in April when he checked in on Arozarena’s woes, after which once more throughout his substitute stage killers collection final week, “Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola had expressed the assumption that Arozarena’s want to make use of the entire subject extra usually, in an effort to make himself a fair higher hitter, might have backfired.”
That change in method could be associated to his diminished contact fee early within the season, notably on pitches within the strike zone.
His rebound in June and July aligns fairly clearly together with his capability to place the bat on the ball when pitchers go away their pitches over the plate. And fortunately, nearly all of his different plate self-discipline metrics are both improved or inside vary of his established norms.
Randy Arozarena, Plate Self-discipline
| 12 months | BB% | Okay% | Swing% | O-Swing% | Contact% | Z-Contact% | SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 9.3% | 28.1% | 44.1% | 25.1% | 69.1% | 76.5% | 13.6% |
| 2022 | 7.1% | 24.2% | 46.0% | 30.3% | 73.4% | 80.0% | 12.2% |
| 2023 | 12.2% | 23.9% | 43.0% | 26.3% | 72.5% | 79.0% | 11.9% |
| 2024 | 11.1% | 24.8% | 42.4% | 25.8% | 71.8% | 77.6% | 11.9% |
| Earlier than June 1 | 10.9% | 28.7% | 42.4% | 25.5% | 67.1% | 73.4% | 13.9% |
| Since June 1 | 11.5% | 19.5% | 42.3% | 26.1% | 78.2% | 83.6% | 9.1% |
He’s nonetheless making glorious swing selections on the plate — his SEAGER is within the 84th percentile amongst all batters this yr — and his batted ball metrics are as strong as ever. That two-month funk to start out the season is dragging his general offensive line means down, however make no mistake, it actually seems as if Arozarena has put these struggles behind him.
He’ll instantly slot into the center of the Mariners lineup as their common left fielder and can give them a potent bat to assist defend Rodríguez every time he returns whereas offering dynamic run manufacturing himself. Maybe extra importantly for Seattle, Arozarena gained’t attain free company till 2027; he’s making $8.1 million this season, his second yr of arbitration. The group has developed a principally homegrown rotation that has emerged as probably the greatest within the majors, however over the previous couple of years, the Mariners have been reluctant to make use of free company to enhance their lineup. That makes it crucial for the entrance workplace to be aggressive on the commerce market to accumulate impression batters who will help the Mariners not simply this season however all through this aggressive window, earlier than their group of pitchers both breaks down or turns into too costly to maintain collectively. Arozarena boosts this lineup now and sooner or later.
For the Rays, this commerce comes at an attention-grabbing time. They’re truly solely a half recreation behind the M’s within the AL Wild Card standings and their pitching employees is getting quite a bit more healthy. Shane Baz simply got here again from his Tommy John rehab earlier this month, Jeffrey Springs must be returning to the majors inside every week or so, and Drew Rasmussen isn’t that far behind Springs. Tampa Bay has been hovering on the sting of the AL playoff image for practically the complete season, however a late-season surge wouldn’t have been out of the query. By transferring Arozarena at this level within the season, the Rays have indicated that they’re extra involved in guaranteeing they’re arrange effectively for the longer term than in hoping for a long-shot playoff run over the following few months.
The timing additionally says quite a bit about what they consider the prospects they’re getting on this deal. Arozarena’s escalating wage now that he’s in the midst of his arbitration seasons had made him an apparent commerce candidate this yr, however the Rays may have waited till the offseason to maneuver him in the event that they didn’t just like the gamers they have been getting in return. That they acted now signifies they favored this bundle sufficient to pounce on it 5 days earlier than the commerce deadline. On the very contemporary Mariners prospect listing that Eric Longenhagen not too long ago put collectively, Hopkins was ranked seventh and Smith twenty first.
In a Seattle group that’s infamous for serving to pitchers grow to be the most effective variations of themselves, Longenhagen referred to as Hopkins probably the most thrilling pitching prospect within the system. He’s a transformed outfielder who was chosen within the sixth spherical of final yr’s newbie draft and continues to be very new to pitching. He’s obtained a low-slot launch with some deception in his mechanics, and that arm slot creates a ton of trip and life on his mid-90s heater and offers him a wipeout slider that flashes plus. He nonetheless must develop a 3rd pitch to flesh out his repertoire to succeed in his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter, however even when he doesn’t, he seems to have a reasonably good ground as a two-pitch high-leverage reliever. He’s already 22 years outdated, which makes him fairly outdated for Single-A, the place the Mariners had positioned him of their group, however as he beneficial properties improvement time as a pitcher, he ought to transfer shortly up the ladder.
As for Smith, he was Seattle’s fourth-round decide in final yr’s draft and has hit very effectively in his temporary skilled profession. A prep choice out of Texas, he’s an athletic outfielder with loads of pace to stay in middle subject. He was slashing .284/.402/.470 at Single-A Modesto, and it seems to be like he had made the required changes to his swing to enhance his really feel for contact. He’s a methods away from the majors, however his bodily projection and profitable begin to his minor league profession have been each intriguing sufficient for Tampa Bay to take an opportunity on him.
Even with Arozarena within the fold, the Mariners shouldn’t be achieved including to their roster. Their offensive points are too deep to be solved by one participant. Even after transferring Hopkins and Smith, Seattle has sufficient extremely regarded prospects obtainable to maneuver for an additional massive splash. They’ve been linked to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over the previous couple of days — each can be important upgrades to the black holes the Mariners are working out at second and first base this yr. Given the Mariners’ place within the standings and the state of their roster and farm system, this transfer for Arozarena shouldn’t preclude them from persevering with to enhance their offense over the following few days.
