The Mariners are 56-51 and tied for a playoff spot, so it could be laborious to consider it, however their offense is unhealthy. Not simply unhealthy for a playoff workforce, however twenty eighth in baseball in runs scored unhealthy, .300 OBP and that’s the great a part of the offense unhealthy, put Victor Robles on the prime of the order as a result of he’s the one one who’s been hitting unhealthy. They already did somewhat to handle that deficit by buying and selling for Randy Arozarena, and now they’re doubling down on righty AL East bats by buying Justin Turner in trade for RJ Schreck, as Ken Rosenthal and Ryan Divish reported.
Have you learnt who the Mariners have been enjoying at DH this 12 months? It reads like a cautionary story. Children, should you come into the 12 months attempting to win solely 54% of your video games, you would possibly give your DH at-bats to Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger, and Jason Vosler. It’s not lots prettier at first base. Ty France performed so badly that he bought DFA’d by a workforce desperately searching for offense. Tyler Locklear bought the subsequent shot, and he’s hitting .163/.234/.326 to date. These two lineup spots have mixed for a .211/.304/.369 line, and that’s with some juice from Cal Raleigh when he will get a break from catching.
At 39, Turner isn’t the identical middle-of-the-order drive he was in Los Angeles. He’s settled right into a savvy veteran hitter position, and began enjoying first base in 2023 to present the Pink Sox extra flexibility when he was in Boston. He’s continued to alternate between first and DH in Toronto, with a splash of emergency third base thrown in. He’s nonetheless completely a helpful participant, however he’s simply not the Turner you would possibly count on should you’ve tuned out for the final two years.
You’ll be able to see the consequences of growing old plainly; he nonetheless has an awesome strategy on the plate, nonetheless takes his walks and doesn’t strike out a lot, however he’s simply not hitting for energy the way in which he used to. His exit velocity, barrel fee, and hard-hit fee are all on a gentle downward development, which is placing a ton of strain on his on-base abilities. He’s a formidable thirty ninth in baseball in OBP+; no Mariners common comes anyplace close to him in that regard. He’s 146th in SLG+, although. There’s simply no extra-base thunder to be discovered this 12 months.
That works out to a batting line that’s 9% higher than common. Throughout the majors, DH’s have put up a 111 wRC+ this 12 months, and first basemen examine in at 104. Turner’s mainly common, in different phrases, even when his manufacturing is surprisingly formed. Because it seems, that’s an unbelievable match for the Mariners, as a result of common offense has been frustratingly out of attain all 12 months.
Perhaps Locklear will begin hitting higher as he acclimates to the majors. Perhaps Arozarena’s acquisition will let Luke Raley play first base full time. Perhaps Vosler’s higher than all of us assume. Perhaps Garver will rebound. However these aren’t issues {that a} playoff workforce ought to need to depend on. This offense is just not playoff-caliber in the mean time, and elevating the ground is a worthy aim.
In an excellent world, Turner won’t have a full-time beginning position by 12 months’s finish. Varied choices on the Seattle roster have larger upside. However the Mariners bought into this offensive mess with considering like that. “Certainly considered one of these guys will work” is an inexpensive stance in April. By July 29, the holes within the lineup are much less explainable, much less hope-away-able. Including Turner implies that the workforce can get by with fewer of its hitters understanding the way in which it’d hoped. If he’s his common regular self and the remainder of the workforce catches hearth, eh, he nonetheless wouldn’t be Seattle’s worst hitter. In situations the place the remainder of the lineup doesn’t rebound, he could be an offensive point of interest. You would persuade me that Turner is value a full win improve, an enormous quantity for a partial season from a DH.
To get that improve, the Mariners didn’t have to surrender a lot. The marketplace for corner-only defenders who aren’t big difference-makers on offense simply retains heading down; trendy GMs don’t hand over a lot for offense-only gamers until they’re transcendent hitters. That growth is nice for Seattle, although; they wanted to improve their offense with a league-average possibility, and fortuitously that simply doesn’t price as a lot because it used to.
Particularly on this case, it price them Schreck, a ninth spherical draft choose in 2023 who demolished Excessive-A this 12 months at age 23. As Eric Longenhagen famous in his Seattle prospects writeup, Schreck’s lefty fly ball swing and get in touch with abilities had been an ideal match for the Everett stadium, and whereas that is his first full 12 months as an expert, he was a senior signee who was simply too superior for the competitors there. He walked greater than he struck out and customarily wasn’t challenged. He bought promoted to Double-A two weeks in the past and hasn’t discovered his footing but. How he handles the remainder of the minor league season will give us a greater learn of his abilities; crushing people in A-ball clearly wasn’t sufficient of a take a look at, so I assume the Jays will give him all of the competitors he can deal with and see what shakes out.
That’s not an enormous return for Toronto – Eric would give Schreck a 35 grade, organizational depth with out a lot likelihood of contributing within the majors long-term — however like I already talked about, the marketplace for common hitters has cratered, and Turner’s contract, which the Mariners can pay the rest of, restricted his market even additional. I feel the Blue Jays did effective on this commerce; they had been by no means going to get a lot for Turner, and so they’re virtually utterly out of the playoff race, so at the very least they bought an fascinating lottery ticket in trade.
However, I like this commerce for Seattle. One underrated a part of having big holes in your lineup is that they’re simpler to switch. If everybody’s good already, it’s powerful to improve. As a result of solely the very best few bidders decide the price of a commerce, competing for gamers that everybody needs will be costly prospects-wise. It’s lots simpler on the outdated prospect pockets if there’s a participant whom not many groups need however whom your workforce desperately wants. It’s laborious to have an offense that’s so clearly in want of common hitters and likewise be in playoff rivalry, however the Mariners have managed that trick, and now they’re reaping the advantages: stable veteran hitters at affordable charges.
