After being traded for the second time in as a few years again in Could when he was acquired by the Padres in a deal that despatched a four-player bundle again to Miami, Luis Arraez advised reporters (together with MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that he’s trying ahead to the soundness of figuring out the place he’s going to play subsequent 12 months. Not solely that, Arraez even expressed curiosity in a longer-term deal to maintain him in San Diego past the top of the 2025 season, when he’s scheduled to succeed in free company for the primary time.
“It means a whole lot of good issues,” Arraez stated, as relayed by Cassavell. “In the event that they need to signal me, I need to keep right here. That is enterprise. I perceive the enterprise. However I hope I keep right here for a very long time.”
Arraez is in for a wholesome payday this winter, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz tasks a $14.6MM wage for the infielder in his closing journey by way of arbitration. It’s a hefty value to pay for Arraez distinctive however considerably restricted ability set. Arraez has by no means offered a lot defensive worth even when he primarily performed second base with the Twins and Marlins. That modified upon Arraez’s arrival in San Diego, because the Padres used him on the keystone in simply 9 video games whereas in any other case splitting his time between first base (the place he profiles as a under common defender) and DH.
In the meantime, Arraez’s elite contact is held again by lackluster plate self-discipline and a scarcity of energy. Whereas Arraez simply gained his third consecutive batting title with a wonderful .314 common, he was simply 9% higher than the league common hitter by wRC+ because of a paltry 3.6% stroll price and a minuscule .078 ISO that leaves him with the third-lowest energy manufacturing amongst all certified hitters this 12 months. An damage might assist clarify Arraez’s downturn in manufacturing after back-to-back 130 wRC+ seasons in 2022 and ’23, nonetheless: the infielder advised reporters (together with Cassavell) that he’s been enjoying by way of a thumb damage this 12 months and is about to bear an MRI to additional discover the state of affairs now that the Padres’ season has come to an in depth.
If Arraez could be open to a long-term deal at a decrease common annual worth than the $14.6MM determine he’s at present projected to earn by way of arbitration this winter, it’s not arduous to think about the Padres having incentive to place a deal collectively. In spite of everything, RosterResource tasks the membership for a luxurious tax payroll simply over $243MM in 2025, round $2MM above the bottom tax threshold of $241MM. In the meantime, the membership’s precise payroll is projected for simply over $207MM, a rise of practically $50MM over 2024’s $169MM determine. Whereas specifics of the membership’s payroll plans for 2025 are usually not but clear, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Padres are “dedicated” to a payroll nearer to their 2024 determine than 2023, once they ran an estimated payroll of $257 per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
With wants within the beginning rotation and outfield that must be addressed this winter, San Diego brass could wind up needing to get inventive as a way to afford the additions crucial this winter. Extending Arraez might be one such inventive path to a decrease payroll, and it’s one the Padres have used beneath A.J. Preller up to now. Lefty Wandy Peralta and right-hander Yu Darvish are two of essentially the most notable current examples of gamers who have been signed or prolonged on contracts designed to mitigate their luxurious tax influence, and it’s even attainable an Arraez extension might be considerably back-loaded as a way to liberate extra {dollars} for the 2024 group.
In fact, such an association would require the Padres to have Arraez of their plans past the 2025 season. It’s not but clear if Arraez’s need to stay in San Diego past the lifetime of his membership management is reciprocated by membership brass, although The Athletic’s Dennis Lin did spotlight Arraez not too long ago as an “apparent” extension candidate for the membership and emphasize San Diego’s respect for the 27-year-old’s distinctive ability set. There would absolutely be different obstacles to workaround as a way to make a long-term deal into actuality even when the curiosity is mutual, in fact, not least of which might be Arraez’s standing as one of many league’s most troublesome to worth gamers.
