Luis Arraez Has Stopped Putting Out

The final time Luis Arraez struck out was August 10, a full month in the past. He struck out the day earlier than that as nicely. As of Tuesday morning, Arraez has performed in 42 of the Padres’ 46 video games in the course of the second half of the season, and he has struck out precisely twice. No different certified participant has struck out fewer than 15 occasions because the All-Star break. Please take a second to consider that. It signifies that the participant with the second-fewest strikeouts has struck out 7 1/2 occasions greater than Arraez. Practically 75% of certified gamers have struck out a minimum of 30 occasions. Arraez, as soon as once more, has executed so twice. Right here’s what that appears like in a graph. Every bar represents a certified participant and Arraez is the tiny inexperienced one all the best way to the fitting. I’ve added a dashed line to offer you a way of how far beneath everybody else he’s.

Arraez at the moment has 26 strikeouts over the whole season. If he can keep beneath 30, he could be simply the ninth certified participant on this century to perform the feat, and the primary since Jeff Keppinger did so in 2008. Even when you do depend 2020, even though Arraez has made 340 extra plate appearances (and counting) than any participant in that season, he at the moment has fewer strikeouts than all however 5 of the 142 certified gamers. Right here’s a chart of the entire 2024 season, only for good measure.

However let’s give attention to simply the second half once more. The Padres had 17 video games left to play as of Tuesday morning, once I ran a Stathead search to see which gamers have had the fewest second-half strikeouts in AL/NL historical past. Though the primary All-Star Sport was performed in 1933, the info goes again to 1901, and I set a minimal of 180 plate appearances. (With no break, I’m undecided how precisely Stathead divides these first 32 seasons, however we’re extra within the spirit of the factor anyway.) Together with Arraez, 32 gamers have struck out not more than two occasions, 67 gamers have struck out not more than thrice, 127 have struck out not more than 4 occasions, and 219 have struck out not more than 5 occasions. (All of the stats I take advantage of on this piece are as of Tuesday morning, however earlier than I proceed, it’s price mentioning that Arraez went 3-for-5 and didn’t strike out in Tuesday night time’s sport towards the Mariners.) Arraez has the possibility to affix a really, very brief listing. On the high is John Dobbs, who in 1905 grew to become the one participant to go with out hanging out in any respect within the second half. Extra importantly, he actually knew find out how to rock a fisherman’s sweater.

Might you look into these eyes – these sturdy, soulful eyes which have peered into the depths of so many chilly and lonesome nights and seen solely the haunting shadow of despair – and handle to throw strike three? No one may in the course of the second half of the 1905 season.

The opposite takeaway from the listing is simply how outdated the names on it are: Wee Willie Keeler, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, Shoeless Joe Jackson. If Arraez can keep away from hanging out 4 extra occasions over the following 17 video games, he’ll be simply the second participant to affix this listing since 1979. The primary participant? Tony Gwynn, who in 1993 struck out 4 occasions over 208 second-half plate appearances whereas batting a crisp .400. Proper now, Arraez has a profession Ok%+ of 30, which means that over the course of his profession, he has struck out 70% much less typically than the common participant. Our all-time lists present just a few gamers forward of him, however we don’t present precise strikeout totals for practically all of these gamers, so I don’t belief their numbers an excessive amount of. Of that group, the one quantity I actually belief is Gwynn’s 29. Maybe you keep in mind some talk-radio screeching from earlier this season, when Arraez received traded to San Diego. Some remarked that Arraez’s ending up a Padre was a becoming tribute to Gwynn, whereas others took offense on the comparability.

It’s plain that Gwynn was a greater participant. Arraez put up a 131 wRC+ in each 2022 and ’23, the perfect marks of his profession. Gwynn surpassed that mark in eight completely different seasons, and ended his profession with a 132 wRC+. He put up a 126 wRC+ in his age-41 season, whereas the 27-year-old Arraez has but to hit his decline section. Lastly, Arraez has by no means actually had a defensive place, whereas Gwynn was a baserunning menace and a strong defender till knee points slowed him down. Nonetheless, I might remind you of the variations of their eras. The opposite plus stats make an eloquent argument for Arraez as Gwynn’s rightful inheritor.

Chances are you’ll be shocked to study that, relative to his period, Arraez is definitely higher than Gwynn at hitting for common. The largest distinction between the 2 is that Gwynn was extra of a slugger. Similar to Gwynn, Arraez is undoubtedly the premier contact hitter of his period. Nonetheless, contact is way, a lot tougher to come back by on this period. We most likely shouldn’t be shocked that as a way to hit for a comparable common, Arraez has needed to sacrifice extra energy than Gwynn did.

Right here’s the place issues get difficult. You can argue that the basis causes behind Arraez’s declining strikeout price are additionally the basis causes behind the step again in his efficiency this season. To begin with, in every of the previous two seasons, his chase price has made an unlimited leap. From 2019 to ’22, his chase price was regular at a hair above 24%. Final season, it elevated to 31.8%, and this season it’s as much as 35.6%. In two seasons, Arraez has dropped from the 78th percentile to the tenth. Usually, chasing extra would result in extra strikeouts, however Arraez isn’t regular, and his contact price has gone up sufficient each inside and outdoors the strike zone that he’s nonetheless making extra contact total. Sports activities Data Resolution has been monitoring plate self-discipline since 2002, and the scatterplot beneath exhibits the info for all 3,366 certified participant seasons since.

These two dots within the purple circle characterize Arraez in 2023 and ’24. Simply six different gamers have ever made that a lot contact, and nobody has executed so whereas chasing anyplace close to as typically. Because of this, Arraez is on tempo to place the ball in play 616 occasions, probably the most since Statcast began monitoring batted ball occasions in 2015, and his stroll price has fallen much more dramatically than his strikeout price.

That’s not all. As a result of extra of the balls he places into play are approaching pitches which are exterior the strike zone, he’s not hitting the ball as onerous as he used to. Final 12 months, a .362 BABIP masked the distinction, however this 12 months he’s at .325. It’s not onerous to see why. When he swings at pitches within the zone, his exit velocity is 88.8 mph. On pitches exterior the zone, it’s 80.9, practically 8 mph decrease. Because of this, Arraez’s .332 xwOBA is the bottom of his profession. Putting out much less is nice, however when you stroll much less too and produce much less on balls in play, it doesn’t matter a lot. I don’t know whether or not the Marlins or the Padres have tried to get Arraez to be a bit extra selective. His expertise for squaring up the ball makes him such an outlier; I wouldn’t be shocked to listen to that they only let him do his factor as a result of they don’t wish to get in his head and mess up his one bizarre trick.

Nonetheless, Arraez hasn’t simply stopped hanging out. Despite the fact that his chase price has elevated from 34.6% within the first half to 37.8%, he’s lastly hitting sufficient to show his season round. He’s working a 119 wRC+ within the second half, lifting his season mark from 104 to 109. This can virtually actually be the third straight season by which Arraez runs baseball’s lowest strikeout price, and it’ll very most likely give him his third straight batting title. Additionally, he’s struck out wanting simply twice all season. To this point, 34 completely different gamers have struck out wanting a minimum of thrice in a single sport.

Let’s finish by certainly one of Arraez’s two second-half strikeouts. Each got here towards the Marlins, with whom Arraez began the season and who subsequently most likely had a fairly good scouting report towards him. I’m going to indicate you the August 9 strikeout, as a result of it’s a doozy. It got here within the high of the eighth inning towards George Soriano. Residence plate umpire Scott Barry had a excessive strike zone all sport, and it looks as if Soriano was conscious of it. Right here’s strike one:

That’s a four-seamer that catches the very, very nook of the zone up and away. It’s a borderline strike, and when the pitcher will get the decision, there’s not a lot you are able to do however tip your cap. Right here’s the second pitch:

That’s now not borderline. That’s a slider, and based on each Statcast and the on-screen strike zone it missed excessive. How typically do pitchers miss above the zone with a breaking ball and earn a referred to as strike? Not typically. As you’ll be able to see, Arraez shouldn’t be notably completely happy about ending up within the gap 0-2 because of a borderline name adopted by a blown name. At this level, he virtually actually appears like he has to swing at something, as a result of there’s completely no purpose to belief the umpire’s strike zone. Right here’s strike three:

That’s a examine swing on a superbly executed again foot slider. Personally, I might argue that Arraez didn’t go, nevertheless it’s an in depth name both means.

Simply to recap, we’ve received a borderline strike on the nook, a missed name above the zone, and a borderline checked swing. That’s a tough luck strikeout if ever there was one. Arraez would strike out as soon as extra the following day, then resolve that he was executed with such issues, presumably perpetually.