Let’s Look at Swing Path Variety within the 2024 Playoffs

It’s essentially the most great time of the 12 months: October baseball. As all the time within the playoffs, I’ve been eager to watch lineup building and offensive personnel, significantly from a bat path perspective. Over the previous couple of years particularly, the matchup recreation has turn out to be increasingly more necessary as managers navigate the platoon benefit that comes from switching pitchers out and in of the sport.

In 2023 and 2022, I explored how Vertical Bat Angle (VBA) can function a proxy for analyzing swing range in a staff’s lineup. At first it began as a means of investigating why the Astros have been so constant within the playoffs, then it turned a means for me to know which lineups have essentially the most versatility in bat path and handedness. In principle, the extra versatility, the more durable it’s for a pitcher-catcher mixture to recreation plan. If a lefty with a flat bat path hits forward of a righty with a steep bat path — as is the case with Juan Soto and Aaron Decide — a pitcher is pressured to execute two completely different approaches. If that variance carries by a whole lineup, good luck! Spoiler alert, I’m mainly describing the Dodgers, however extra on that later.

As I’ve mentioned in numerous blogs of mine, VBA will not be a catch-all metric for describing bat path. Assault Angle (AA) and Vertical Entry Angle (VEA), amongst different metrics, are necessary for understanding the total story of every participant’s path. However on this piece, I’m going to stay with simply VBA as a result of that’s what I’ve used for this piece in earlier years. Listed here are a couple of key factors which might be necessary to rehash earlier than exhibiting the outcomes.

For left-handed hitters, I made their common VBA damaging to account for the truth that they swing from the opposite aspect of the plate. (VBA information is supplied by SwingGraphs.) For switch-hitters, I multiplied their common VBA by -0.72 as a result of the league-wide price of switch-hitter plate appearances that come in opposition to righty pitchers — when they’re batting lefty — is 72%. Moreover, regardless that I used regular-season VBA information, I included solely hitters who’ve recorded at the very least one playoff plate look this 12 months within the pattern. By not together with guys who didn’t bat in the course of the postseason, the dataset is extra consultant of every playoff staff’s VBA variance primarily based on how its offense is at the moment constructed. With the remaining group of gamers, I took the variance of the VBAs on the given staff and adjusted it to be a proportion above or under common. The common is ready at 100, similar to wRC+. With out additional ado, right here is the replace on VBAVar+ for 2024:

As I alluded to earlier, the Dodgers come out on prime this 12 months. Their addition of Shohei Ohtani is a giant assist. Shocker! He comes earlier than Mookie Betts, who’s then adopted by Freddie Freeman. From a VBA perspective, these three hitters provide instant variance atop the lineup. Ohtani’s VBA sits round 34 levels on common (though we all know he can alter his swing a ton). Betts presents a really comparable VBA at simply round 33.7 levels, however his comes from the opposite aspect of the plate, and he’s a lot shorter than Ohtani. After that, Freeman has one of many steepest swings in baseball at simply over 40 levels on common. The completely different angles are one solution to illuminate how completely different they’re as hitters. They drive pitchers to execute a number of pitches in numerous places as a result of every of them has completely different strengths or weaknesses as a result of shapes of their swings.

Being and not using a wholesome Freeman takes a flexible layer out of the lineup. The primary baseman is nursing a sprained ankle and bone bruise, an harm that may usually warrant a restoration time of 4 to 6 weeks. He didn’t play within the Dodgers’ 8-0 win over the Padres in Recreation 4 on Wednesday, however he’s within the lineup for Friday night time’s Recreation 5. Both means, he’s not at full power. Throughout his Recreation 4 absence, Max Muncy moved over to his previous residence at first base, whereas Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernández break up the third base duties. Because the Dodgers confirmed of their Recreation 4 rout, they’ve loads of different boppers following the three stars of their lineup. It begins with Teoscar Hernández’s impartial VBA of 33-34 levels. He’s adopted by Muncy’s barely flatter swing (31 levels). Then comes the righty Will Smith together with his steeper angle of about 36 levels. The underside third is highlighted by Gavin Lux and Tommy Edman, who present pitchers one other completely different look with their flatter swings (each lower than 29 levels on common). I do know, I mainly listed your complete lineup, however that’s precisely the purpose: The Dodgers have a ton of gifted hitters with completely different swing profiles, making it very troublesome for pitchers to provide you with a concrete gameplan to get them out. Final season, the Dodgers have been second on this metric. The additions of Ohtani, Teoscar Hernández, and Edman, in addition to the return of Lux from harm, have helped push the Dodgers to the highest of the listing.

The Yankees even have loads of star energy of their lineup. They’ve struggled offensively up to now by their 4 playoff video games and are simply barely above common when it comes to lineup swing variance. Decide is their solely hitter on this pattern who has a mean VBA above 33 levels. Nevertheless, as I discussed earlier, the highest of their lineup is all of the extra harmful as a result of their two greatest hitters, Decide and Soto, have utterly completely different VBAs. Decide’s is 41 levels, whereas Soto’s is 26, and so they additionally come from completely different sides of the plate.

The Padres and Royals seem third and fourth on this leaderboard, respectively. San Diego’s placement is essentially attributable to its means to rotate left- and right-handed hitters. On Wednesday, the Padres’ lineup went like this: L, R, L, R, L, R, L, R, L. There’s one spot that stands proud particularly: Batting Manny Machado fourth and Jackson Merrill fifth. Machado’s flat swing is geared towards crushing heaters, whereas Merrill’s steeper swing (and flexibility) permits him to hit sliders effectively. If pitchers need to spam sliders to Machado, they’re pressured to regulate rapidly and take a special method with Merrill. Sure, that’s doable. But when it makes issues even simply barely harder for pitchers, it’s price it.

Kansas Metropolis is kind of completely different from the opposite groups mentioned up to now as a result of its offense is prime heavy. Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are the 2 key threats. For those who’re not going to overwhelm pitchers offensively with a bunch of star energy, at the very least give them various seems, proper? That’s what this lineup does. The Royals have a handful of lefty hitters with completely different VBAs, starting from Kyle Isbel (very flat) to Adam Frazier (very steep). The Tigers, the opposite AL Central staff to safe a Wild Card berth, are the same story.

The Tigers have completed simply sufficient offensively in the course of the playoffs up to now. They haven’t actually had a giant breakout recreation, however their versatility has allowed A.J. Hinch to make pinch-hitting choices that put his staff in a greater place to play in opposition to the strengths of Detroit’s opponents. A superb instance of this got here in Recreation 2 of the Wild Card Sequence in opposition to the Houston Astros, when Andy Ibáñez pinch-hit for Zach McKinstry in opposition to left-hander Josh Hader within the eighth inning. From a handedness perspective, the transfer is straight ahead; McKinstry bats left-handed whereas Ibáñez is a righty. However what makes this an particularly shrewd transfer is the truth that, from a bat path perspective, Ibáñez is likely to be a super matchup for the Tigers in opposition to Hader. Hader has a flat method angle on his fastball, which he’s making an attempt to maintain above the bats of hitters, and Ibáñez has a flat swing — on common, his VBA hovered between 26 and 27 levels this season — which helps him to keep away from swinging beneath greater pitches. That’s precisely what occurred. Hader fired a sinker up within the zone, and Ibáñez hammered it for a go-ahead double.

And typically, you’ve gotten comparable personnel who’re all enjoying so effectively that having variance doesn’t matter all that a lot! That’s precisely what’s taking place in Queens. Virtually your complete Mets lineup is inside 5 levels of VBA. The one exception is J.D. Martinez, who has a steeper path within the excessive 30s. I don’t assume the Mets’ place all the best way down on this leaderboard is a foul factor; good hitters are good hitters no matter their swing paths. Placing collectively a lineup with a excessive VBA variance is only one solution to construct a profitable staff, but it surely’s removed from the one means.

That is the third 12 months I’ve completed this train and it’s one among my private favorites. The extra context that may be added to a staff’s lineup, the higher you may perceive matchups and managerial choices. Within the small pattern of the playoffs, groups should flex no matter aggressive benefit is on the market. When you’ve gotten the personnel to make life more durable to your opponents, you higher train it.