Know Thy Enemy: Philadelphia 76ers

That is Half II in a collection previewing the Celtics’ likeliest challengers to the throne. Half I, the New York Knicks, may be discovered right here.

Just like the too-old child at summer time camp leaping off the excessive diving board, the Philadelphia 76ers made the splashiest transfer of the summer time, revamping their total roster round a brand new Massive Three in Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George. Will or not it’s sufficient to problem Boston for the throne? Spoilers: no.

I’m not a believer within the Massive Three mannequin anymore. The NBA has grow to be hyper-optimized; the playoffs are about attacking weaknesses. It’s way more vital to be balanced on each ends than to have a excessive focus of top-shelf expertise with a lower than stellar supporting solid.

The 76ers have added some good position gamers for reasonable, as we’ll focus on under, however we stated the identical factor in regards to the Phoenix Suns final yr. They proceeded to embarrass themselves within the first spherical regardless of having all three tentpole stars wholesome(ish).

Well being, in fact, is probably the most essential issue for the 76ers. We’ve not often seen a wholesome Joel Embiid within the playoffs, and Paul George is as rickety as a Lincoln flashing 150,000 miles on the odometer. If both is damage come springtime, the 76ers stop being a risk. However that’s apparent and boring to speak about, so let’s assume they make it to the playoffs intact.

Right here is my finest guess on the new Philadelphia 76ers depth chart:

PG: Tyrese Maxey, Kyle Lowry, Reggie Jackson

SG: Kelly Oubre Jr., Eric Gordon, Jared McCain

SF: Paul George, Ricky Council IV

PF: Caleb Martin, KJ Martin, Guerschon Yabusele

C: Joel Embiid, Andre Drummond

One factor you’ll word proper off the bat is that the 76ers have a bevy of positionally versatile gamers. Embiid is a middle’s middle, however almost everybody on the roster can play a minimum of two and sometimes three positions. We’ll see numerous Kyle Lowry each subsequent to and instead of Tyrese Maxey. Paul George, Kelly Oubre, and Caleb Martin are all able to taking part in two by means of 4.

Philly can’t go big, precisely, as they lack a real energy forward-sized energy ahead except former Celtic Yabusele performs much more than I count on. However they’ve numerous collective size and versatile defenders.

George is the spotlight right here. The Celtics each clobbered and had been clobbered by the Clippers final yr of their two video games, and whereas George didn’t precisely explode, he usually shot effectively. One attention-grabbing tidbit: George solely had three assists complete in these two video games, because the Celtics’ skill to remain out of rotation shrunk the passing lanes.

Picture by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE through Getty Photographs

Boston routinely bullied and beat up Maxey two years in the past, however he carried out higher (if not nice) towards the C’s final season, displaying his general development. Maxey’s uncooked velocity is a troublesome cowl for anybody. With George flanking him on the perimeter, Maxey might discover much more success moving into the lane.

Embiid is a handful. Boston’s artistic defensive schemes have flummoxed Embiid up to now (Jrue Vacation at middle, anybody?), however he’s all the time a risk to interrupt out for 50. Defensively, an engaged and in-shape Embiid continues to be a monster, shutting off the paint (even when doing so permits Porzingis to roam free on the perimeter).

The remainder of the supporting solid seems to be strong on paper, however there are numerous query marks. The wheels might fall off of the 38-year-old Lowry at any minute. Eric Gordon was a powerful pickup, able to holding his personal defensively whereas bombing away from means behind the arc. Nonetheless, at 35 years outdated, Gordon may fall into irrelevance, too.

Oubre was a pleasing shock defensively final season, however he’s by no means been an excellent shooter (though he’s all the time a prepared one). Groups grew to become bolder leaving him open on the three-point line final season. He must be higher than 32% from deep to keep away from being an offensive legal responsibility.

Celtics followers know Caleb friggin’ Martin. He’s most likely slightly overtaxed because the beginning energy ahead on this staff, however he’s a sharpened Swiss Military Knife able to productive minutes throughout three positions. Drummond is a helpful backup middle, however the extra he’s on the courtroom instead of Embiid, the higher for opponents.

The rookie Jared McCain, Council, and Yabusele are unproven, and Reggie Jackson is washed. Exterior of Gordon and Martin, I’m not almost as excessive on this staff’s depth as many individuals appear to be.

Strengths

The 76ers undertaking to be a strong two-way staff.

They had been above-average defensively final season regardless of fewer than 40 video games with Embiid, their anchor. At age 34, Paul George stays one of many league’s finest wing defenders. Even when he loses a step, he’ll be an enormous improve over Tobias Harris. Whereas Philly received’t be a top-five protection, they may simply hover across the seven-to-ten vary, particularly as an Jap Convention staff.

Offensively, George, Maxey, and Embiid are about as cosy a match as you’ll find. All three can shoot, cross, and dribble, every taking part in at a distinct, complementary tempo. George is without doubt one of the deadliest catch-and-shooters within the NBA, and Maxey isn’t far behind. They’ll each play off of Embiid when he’s within the excessive put up, they’ll run two-man actions with one another (think about George choosing for Maxey and popping to the three-point line, or an inverted George/Embiid pick-and-roll), they usually can get a bucket in isolation.

Embiid continues to evolve. Final yr was his finest passing season by far (5.6 assists per sport), and he averaged a career-best 39% from deep on 3.6 makes an attempt per sport. He received the MVP in 2022-23 and was an much more deadly offensive participant when wholesome final yr. Enjoyable reality: Embiid averaged extra factors per minute than Wilt Chamberlain did when he averaged 50 per sport!

Surrounding these three with even semi-decent taking pictures (paging Eric Gordon) will make for an almost unstoppable assault. If this staff struggles, it received’t be due to the offense.

One level in Boston’s favor: Philly initiatives to be a free-throw monster subsequent season but once more (they’d the league’s third-highest free-throw fee final season), however Boston held them to almost six fewer free throws than their season common (and that development held even within the video games they performed with Embiid). Whereas foul-drawing is a Philly energy, the Celtics’ foul avoidance has confirmed even stronger.

Picture by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE through Getty Photographs

Weaknesses

The 76ers undertaking to be a poor defensive rebounding group. Embiid and backup middle Drummond pile up rebounds like my toddler stacking matchbox vehicles, and George is positionally strong. After that, although, there are numerous undersized gamers who’ll must battle amidst the bushes to corral a miss. Boston can and may hammer the glass towards this Philly staff, as offensive rebounds can result in helpful open three pointers for Boston’s many shooters. The 76ers don’t undertaking to be a massively transition-oriented staff, both, limiting the draw back of sending rebounders. Curiously, Boston struggled to make the most of this final season, solely rating twenty second in offensive rebounding fee towards Philly. I’d count on that quantity to enhance, notably if Luke Kornet or Neemias Queta exchange Porzingis’ minutes.

As we’ve already talked about, Philly’s different main flaw is depth, notably on the ahead spots. George is nice, and Caleb Martin is competent. However after these two, the Sixers want a minimum of one among Council, Yabusele, and KJ Martin to show playable for 18 minutes per night time. I’ve all the time appreciated KJ Martin, however he can’t appear to stay anyplace he lands (and his contract might as nicely have include a “TRADE ME” bumper sticker). Yabusele appeared good within the Olympics however proved unplayable offensively in his transient NBA tenure. Council has proven flashes of a well-rounded talent set, however he performed fewer than 300 minutes final yr.

Coach Nick Nurse likes to play his finest guys massive minutes, however this staff has many elderly and/or fragile items; a few of the younger guys can be thrust into a much bigger position whether or not they’re prepared or not. Philly must get one thing from the again finish of their bench. Don’t be shocked if Daryl Morey executes one other commerce or two to beef up the ahead rotation.

Lastly, the Celtics are lucky that three of their 4 conferences with Philly occur in February and March, so with luck, Porzingis will solely miss one sport. For all his strengths, Embiid doesn’t wish to guard Porzingis on the perimeter; the unicorn dropped 29 towards Philly within the one sport they performed towards one another.

Last Ideas

There are actually methods for Philadelphia to make Boston’s life tough, notably if Porzingis misses prolonged time. Embiid’s dimension and Maxey’s velocity are two bodily attributes the Celtics have struggled with at occasions, and George is an efficient sufficient offensive participant to get buckets even towards Boston’s stalwart defenders.

However Embiid is at his worst defensively when the Celtics go five-out. If each groups meet within the playoffs at full well being, I’d count on a monster Porzingis collection from the perimeter whereas Vacation and Derrick White take turns feasting on Maxey. Like I stated up high, the NBA is about mitigating weaknesses, not sharpening strengths. For all their collective expertise, the 76ers may have spots to select at on each ends. Philly may need a scorching night time, perhaps two. Boston may go chilly for a stretch. However the Celtics are extra outfitted to go after the 76ers than vice-versa, and a comparatively stress-free six-game collection appears the likeliest final result.