With Juan Soto signed and each Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger traded, among the high outfielders nonetheless out there this offseason embrace Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernández and Jurickson Profar. Per current reporting, Santander is in search of a five-year deal and Hernandez is in search of three. Jeff Passan of ESPN stories as we speak that Profar is “in search of a deal within the three-year-plus vary.”
These asks are roughly in keeping with preseason expectations. As a part of MLBTR’s annual High 50 Free Brokers put up, Santander was predicted for $80MM over 4 years, Hernández for $60MM over three, and Profar $45MM over three.
The three gamers have some similarities. Every is taken into account a subpar defender in an outfield nook. None is especially threatening on the basepaths. Hernández does have 83rd percentile dash pace however has by no means swiped greater than 12 luggage in a season and may not high that now that he’s 32 years outdated.
However all three are above common hitters. Profar is definitely coming off the strongest 2024 season of the three, however he’s been far much less constant in his profession. His 2023 season was so poor that he settled for a $1MM assure from the Padres final offseason.
That became a outstanding discount for the Friars. Profar has all the time had good plate self-discipline and that didn’t change this yr, as his 15.1% strikeout fee and 11.4% stroll fee had been every just a few ticks higher than common. However when he made contact, he did extra injury than ever earlier than. His 24 dwelling runs and 158 hits had been each profession highs. His .302 batting common on balls in play was one of the best of his profession, however so was the standard of his contact. His common exit velocity of 91.1 miles per hour was just a few ticks above his earlier better of 87.5 mph. His 44.4% arduous hit fee was far larger than his earlier private better of 34.3%.
The general outcome was a .280/.380/.459 batting line and a 139 wRC+, indicating he was 39% higher than league common. Hernández and Santander had a 134 and 129 wRC+ this yr, respectively. Profar’s protection wasn’t graded strongly however he did add ten steals this yr, tying a profession excessive. General, FanGraphs thought-about him to be value 4.3 wins above alternative on the season, with Hernandez at 3.5 fWAR and Santander at 3.3.
However as talked about, consistency has not been Profar’s forte, one thing that MLBTR has lined beforehand. His offense has seesawed between beneath and above common in alternating years, courting again nearly a decade now. Ranging from 2017 and going to the current, his wRC+ numbers have been 36, 107, 90, 113, 87, 110, 78 and 139. Hernández had a dip with Seattle in 2023 however has in any other case been within the 130-145 vary from 2020 to the current. Santander has been between 119 and 129 in three straight seasons now.
There’s some danger in taking a three-year guess on Profar, therefore the decrease predicted contract. But when the Statcast information factors to any type of actual change in strategy and the contracts find yourself roughly within the predicted areas, then he has an opportunity at being one of the best funding of the three.
Profar’s market has been comparatively quiet to date. He and the Padres every want a reunion however he hasn’t been linked to some other golf equipment. The mutual curiosity between him and the Friars isn’t shocking. San Diego’s president of baseball operations A.J. Preller clearly has an affinity for Profar. Preller was working for the Rangers when that membership signed Profar as an beginner and has since signed Profar to the Padres many instances. After Profar had an unsuccessful sojourn with the Rockies, he spoke overtly of how completely satisfied he was to ultimately return to San Diego.
Nonetheless, the monetary state of affairs may stand in the way in which of one other reunion. RosterResource tasks the Padres for a payroll of $210MM subsequent yr, nicely past their 2024 payroll of $169MM. It’s been reported that they should get trim that projection down, in all probability nearer to their 2024 quantity. That’s led to rumors of gamers like Dylan Stop, Luis Arráez and others being out there in trades, so signing Profar to a notable three-year deal is tough to see for the time being.
Groups just like the Blue Jays, Purple Sox, Dodgers and Yankees have been linked to Hernández and Santander this winter and it stands to purpose that they might have not less than some curiosity in Profar as nicely. The Astros, Reds, Pirates, Royals and different golf equipment are logical matches for nook outfield assist.
