Joel Dahmen gained his PGA Tour card in dramatic vogue. Here is the catch

Joel Dahmen’s chase for a PGA Tour card was arguably probably the most resonant story of the autumn season. With 125 playing cards obtainable, the Tour fan favourite entered the ultimate week of the season at No. 124, along with his future in severe jeopardy. A double-bogey 7 late in Saturday’s spherical appeared to doom his probabilities — however then he bounced again with a Sunday 64 that catapulted him again to No. 124, precisely the place he’d began the week and simply contained in the quantity.

However in keeping with the oldsters at DataGolf, you could possibly make the case that Dahmen’s 2025 PGA Tour standing might truly make it harder to return for him to return in 2026. Had he missed out on the highest 125 Dahmen might have opted to play a Korn Ferry Tour schedule, and per their calculations it’s truly simpler to earn PGA Tour standing via the KFT than to maintain it whereas on Tour.

To be clear, no person is suggesting Dahmen ought to have punted on ending high 125. Being on the PGA Tour is all the level, in spite of everything. The cash, the majors, the factors, the perks, the dream, the upside. Dahmen’s job is to maximise all of that, to not merely retain his card for 2026. It’s additionally robust to challenge what Dahmen’s 2025 would appear like had he completed No. 126, for example, and performed a mix of KFT and PGA Tour occasions. But it surely’s nonetheless an attention-grabbing lens via which to discover the modifications to the PGA Tour’s construction, which can see playing cards decreased from 125 to 100 on the finish of subsequent season and cut back KFT graduates from 30 to twenty.

What does the maths say? Per DataGolf’s glorious publication, the A centesimal-best participant on Tour has averaged +0.16 “True strokes gained” per spherical over the past 20 years, although within the final two years, within the LIV-poaching period, that quantity has dropped to +0.05. However examine that with the No. 20 place on the KFT, which has averaged -0.36 True SG/spherical. By that measure, the identical high quality of golf might earn you a PGA Tour card from the KFT and lose you your job on the PGA Tour. (This was true with the earlier card format, too.) It additionally is sensible that KFT graduates usually have a troublesome time preserving their playing cards; the identical degree that received them to the Tour isn’t at all times ok to maintain them there.

Dahmen didn’t know these numbers, naturally. However he, like each Tour professional, is conscious that preserving his job is simply getting harder.

“I’ve to enhance a ton,” he mentioned after his remaining spherical, then checked himself. “Not a ton, however I’ve to get higher to be within the high 100.

“I’ve mentioned this for a very long time: my ball-striking is Prime 30 on the planet. I’ve simply received to get a bit of higher with the opposite issues and be extra according to my strategy to Thursday and Friday rounds to play how I can play.”

That checks out: In arguably golf’s most vital statistic, strategy play, Dahmen was No. 16 on Tour this season. He was glorious off the tee, too, ending fortieth in strokes gained in that division. He truly led the Tour in common proximity to the outlet, averaging six inches nearer than World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler. However he struggled on Thursdays (145th in scoring common) in comparison with Fridays (14th, greater than a stroke and a half higher). He completed the season 181st in placing, too. In different phrases, there are many brilliant spots however room for enchancment, too.

“I confirmed how I can play below stress at this time, like, bringing it,” Dahmen concluded. “And my Friday spherical as effectively, that was I believe one of many higher rounds on Friday at Seaside [when he rallied to make the cut]. Two of the most important stress moments of my profession I confirmed up. And I can take that going ahead and would possibly as effectively begin at Sony.”

It’s secure to say Dahmen will take his probabilities on the large Tour as an alternative.