Usually talking, late Saturday evening is just not the time for rational choices. Late Saturday evening is when folks make the varieties of choices that they received’t even bear in mind till midway by their eggs on Sunday and whose logic they’ll battle to puzzle out for years to come back. However simply earlier than midnight on Saturday, Jeff Passan revealed that the Nationals and the Mets made a wonderfully cheap swap. The Mets, at present half a recreation forward of the Diamondbacks for the ultimate NL Wild Card spot, bolstered their outfield and added a much-needed left-handed bat by sending 24-year-old right-handed pitching prospect Tyler Stuart to the Nationals in alternate for half a season of the resurgent Jesse Winker. After placing up a dreadful -0.8 WAR in an injury-shortened 2023 marketing campaign, Winker is operating a 126 wRC+ and has put up 1.3 WAR, fourth-best amongst Washington’s place gamers. Winker additionally spent his early childhood in upstate New York and has been vocal about his appreciation for Mets followers.
Winker received into Sunday’s recreation together with his new workforce, getting into as a substitute and enjoying left subject, although his final vacation spot may be in proper. Winker hasn’t performed greater than 100 innings in proper subject since 2019, however with Starling Marte out since June 22 attributable to a knee harm, that looks as if essentially the most logical match. The Mets are at present platooning Jeff McNeil and Tyrone Taylor on the market. In opposition to righties, Winker may permit McNeil to maneuver second base, pushing Jose Iglesias, who began out red-hot however has only one hit over his previous six video games, again right into a bench function.
At his finest, in the course of the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Winker mixed a particularly affected person method with glorious contact high quality. He nonetheless runs one of many lowest chase charges within the recreation, however his contact high quality plummeted in 2022 and particularly in 2023, when again and neck accidents restricted him to simply 61 video games with the Brewers. His exit velocity and hard-hit fee have bounced again some this season. They’re not fairly at league common, however mixed together with his preternatural plate self-discipline, they’ll work. Winker additionally received scorching on the good time. He has a 150 wRC+ since June 14, which marks one of many hottest stretches of his total profession, and by far the very best since 2021:
The 30-year-old Winker has battled accidents, again accidents specifically, for a lot of his profession. His improved play may merely be a results of being wholesome for the primary time in a very long time. Nonetheless, there are some apparent caveats right here. It’s necessary to notice that Winker is operating a .318 BABIP, which can also be his finest mark since 2021. His improved contact high quality however, there’s no actual purpose to anticipate that to proceed. Second, Winker is benefiting from seeing much more hittable pitches this season. His 53.2% zone fee isn’t just the best of his profession (except for his a partial rookie season in 2017), however the fifth-highest amongst all certified gamers this season. His 8.6% meatball fee additionally ranks twelfth amongst qualifiers. Listed here are the pitches Winker noticed final 12 months and this 12 months:
Final 12 months, pitchers stayed away from him with breaking pitches and offspeed stuff. This 12 months, they’re throwing much more fastballs proper over the plate.
Winker has all the time been one of the vital selective gamers in baseball. His 18.9% chase fee ranks within the 96th percentile and is only a hair above his profession common. The distinction is that this season, his swing fee on pitches within the zone has fallen to 62.7%, the bottom of his profession. It’s not as if he’s being choosier and ready for the proper pitch. His swing fee on pitches over the guts of the plate can also be at a profession low:
Consequently, SEAGER, which measures selective aggression, doesn’t love him prefer it used to, rating him within the forty seventh percentile after three straight seasons within the mid-80s. It’s laborious to say whether or not Winker will hold seeing so many hittable pitches. This might simply be a small pattern measurement fluke, however perhaps pitchers aren’t afraid of him like they was, or perhaps they’re simply sick of strolling him. Winker might be due for a little bit of regression within the second half, however he may also have the ability to sit in opposition to lefties a bit extra usually in New York. In addition to, he doesn’t have to hold operating a 126 wRC+ to be helpful to the Mets in the course of the stretch run.
Now for Washington’s aspect of the deal. As a result of I wish to spare you ache, I’m not going to make you learn a listing of all of the gamers the Nationals have traded away during the last 4 seasons. I received’t even make you learn a listing of the bounce-back candidates they’ve signed to one-year offers for the specific goal of flipping them on the deadline. However that is what they do. They pump, they dump, they repeat. It’s their technique. This 12 months, it labored with Winker and appears to be working with Dylan Floro, however not with Joey Gallo or Nick Senzel. The actual query is whether or not this may be the technique’s final hurrah. The Nationals are on tempo for his or her finest file since 2019, and, because of the implosion of the Marlins, their first non-last-place end. Administration has been making noises for 2 years now about how shut the workforce is to ending its rebuild. We’ll discover out in a couple of extra months whether or not all which means that they’ll lastly signal a participant they’d truly prefer to hold round for greater than 4 months.
As a 6-foot-9 right-hander with one of many thickest necks in skilled baseball however with out nice fastball form, Tyler Stuart was destined to finish up with the Nationals. The Mets chosen Stuart within the sixth spherical of the 2022 draft out of Southern Mississippi. A transformed reliever, he earned a promotion to Double-A final season. In response to MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato, Stuart’s mixed 2.20 ERA led all certified pitchers within the minors. To date this season, he’s operating a 3.96 ERA and three.28 FIP.
Eric Longenhagen ranked Stuart twenty seventh (as a 35+ FV) within the Mets system again in Could, and he appears more likely to be a back-end starter. Stuart doesn’t have nice velocity or stuff, however he fills up the zone, and is at present strolling 5.6% of batters and operating a 47.5% groundball fee; per Eric, his sturdiness and command give him a excessive ground. As Eric wrote in Could, “He’s principally going to dwell within the low 90s with each a two- and four-seamer whereas commanding a mean slider to his glove aspect.” Stuart remains to be engaged on creating a good offspeed pitch, and his future appears to be dependent upon whether or not or not he can crack it. If he can’t determine it out, he’s extra more likely to find yourself as a fastball-slider reliever.
