Whereas free agent beginning pitchers have finished fairly effectively for themselves this winter, free agent relievers aren’t precisely flying off the cabinets. To that time, solely two relievers from MLBTR’s Prime 50 Free Brokers record have signed thus far, and each of them joined their new groups to be beginning pitchers: Clay Holmes and Michael Soroka. It was notably fascinating to see Holmes signal as a starter. For one factor, he hasn’t began a sport since his rookie season in 2018. What’s extra, he has been one of many prime relievers within the sport over the previous 4 seasons, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and a couple of.83 SIERA with 74 saves in 264 appearances. He was an All-Star in 2022 and ’24.
Jeff Hoffman is without doubt one of the aforementioned unsigned relievers from MLBTR’s Prime 50 record. Like Holmes, he’s coming off an All-Star season out of the ’pen, however he’s reportedly drawing curiosity as a beginning pitcher. Certainly, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported in mid-December that Hoffman had obtained “extra curiosity from groups” as a starter. That helps clarify why Hoffman appears to have set his sights on a deal in the identical vary because the three-year, $38MM contract Holmes landed from the Mets, based on Matt Gelb of The Athletic.
It’s not arduous to know why Hoffman would evaluate himself to Holmes. They’re each right-handed relievers with closing expertise, and so they’re lower than three months aside in age. Then once more, whereas Holmes has an extended monitor report of success, most metrics counsel Hoffman has been the higher pitcher since he broke out as a high-leverage reliever partway by the 2023 marketing campaign. Specifically, he’s coming off a stronger 2024 season in nearly each single statistical class, together with strikeout price, stroll price, innings pitched, ERA, SIERA, and all variations of WAR.
That’s exactly why MLBTR ranked Hoffman forward of Holmes on our Prime 50 record, predicting a four-year, $44MM contract for the previous and a three-year, $30MM deal for the latter. Contemplating that Holmes was capable of beat his predicted contract by $8MM, one might need thought Hoffman can be searching for much more – maybe one thing nearer to the four-year, $56MM deal we initially predicted for fellow free agent reliever Tanner Scott.
Nonetheless, Hoffman and his brokers have now had a few months to gauge curiosity on the open market, and one wonders if he’s found that groups aren’t valuing him considerably greater than they valued Holmes. In spite of everything, it doesn’t appear as if the Mets vastly outbid each different suitor for Holmes’s companies. Mere hours earlier than he signed, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reported that Holmes was nonetheless selecting between quite a few provides and that he had been in negotiations with a number of contending groups. Possibly a type of suitors might pivot to Hoffman as an alternative, particularly if he’s searching for the same deal.
The Phillies had been a type of contending golf equipment. They’re additionally the one staff that has been formally linked to Hoffman this offseason. But, after including reliever Jordan Romano, starter Jesús Luzardo, and swingman Joe Ross, they’re nearly definitely out on Hoffman.
Evidently, Hoffman has different suitors, nevertheless it’s not but clear who they’re. Different groups that had been reportedly in on Holmes embody the Orioles, Purple Sox, and Blue Jays. The Orioles had been involved in Holmes as a starter, however they’ve since signed Tomoyuki Sugano, seemingly filling that gap. The Blue Jays, in the meantime, had been involved in Holmes as a reliever, and so they have since signed Yimi García. It’s more durable to say if that may preclude them from pursuing Hoffman. As for the Purple Sox, it’s unclear in the event that they wished Holmes as a starter or a reliever, nevertheless it’s value noting that they’ve added three starters since they had been linked to Holmes (Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Patrick Sandoval), and so they have already got two potential closers behind their bullpen (Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman).
