Jay Monahan mentioned the PGA Tour’s tv numbers aren’t as unhealthy as they appear, however what did he actually imply?
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Jay Monahan is by most accounts a good man. However even respectable guys generally must commerce in deception.
Like, for instance, throughout the second act of your twice-a-year media availability assessing the state of your employer’s enterprise, when a reporter has simply requested you a very thorny query. Ethics and morality say it is best to attempt to reply the query actually, however a few zillion years of public relations analysis reveals it’s greatest to not reply in any respect.
So, you make up a solution that sounds a bit of bit like what Jay Monahan mentioned on Wednesday morning on the Tour Championship, when the PGA Tour commissioner was requested about his emotions on the Tour’s freefalling TV scores. Not an outright lie, however a deft little bit of spin.
“I believe whenever you take a look at 2024, it’s essential to notice, and I’m going to notice it, that total consumption throughout our platforms in mixture is up,” Monahan mentioned, straight-faced. “That’s a very good signal for the PGA Tour and the engagement that we’ve got with our followers.”
For those who perceive the character of TV scores conversations, you may solely recognize the shiftyness of this reply. To Monahan’s level, maybe the “total consumption” actually is up “in mixture.” That seems like nice information. However the even higher information is that few folks know what the PGA Tour’s total consumption even is, and no one is aware of how these metrics correlate to {dollars} earned by the Tour. In different phrases, it’s a approach to declare a victory within the face of comparatively damning proof on the contrary.
We care about TV scores as a result of they assist us perceive why networks pay such exorbitant sums to broadcast sports activities. Large audiences imply extra advert cash, which is the beginning of the unholy cycle of the TV enterprise (extra advert {dollars} equals extra worth, and extra worth equals extra money handed alongside to leagues in trade for his or her rights). Declining audiences, then again, imply bother.
And relaxation assured, bother is approaching the PGA Tour on this planet of TV scores. In his query to Monahan, Josh Carpenter of the SBJ instructed one of many Tour’s TV companions had seen scores drop by “15 to 17 p.c” from 2023. After years of secure or mildly declining scores, 2024 marked an disagreeable expertise with viewers freefall that the Tour would very very similar to to keep away from repeating.
Does all that imply Monahan was mendacity when he instructed the PGA Tour’s total consumption was up? Not precisely. It means he was intentionally not addressing the reality, which is that the PGA Tour’s TV companions have seen near one-fifth of their viewers disappear in 2024. And, when the TV companions see one-fifth of their viewers disappear, it doesn’t matter if the PGA Tour’s consumption knowledge uncovers the Zodiac. It’s unhealthy information for the Tour, for golf, for the networks — for everybody.
Now some essential qualifiers. Sure, TV audiences are slowly falling throughout the board due to the decline of cable tv. Sure, viewers metrics are altering annually to extra precisely seize those that have left cable TV however nonetheless watch dwell tv. And sure, the PGA Tour had seen a number of years of regular scores by way of the primary few years of LIV, which implies we can not instantly assume the dip in viewers is tied to Saudi divisiveness and never a minimum of partially due to, say, a number of different points like scheduling and unhealthy climate and peculiar viewers behaviors and cable TV’s gradual demise march.
Monahan made a number of of those factors on Wednesday, additionally asserting the creation of a fan suggestions program that goals to check and implement fan-promoted broadcast options in PGA Tour telecasts. (No phrase from the Tour on if they are going to contemplate “much less commercials” ample suggestions.)
“Nielsen itself is presently its personal system and will likely be asserting modifications to its system,” Monahan mentioned, earlier than pivoting to a different most popular buzzword. “Whenever you take a look at attain on the PGA Tour, when that comes out, you’re more likely to see a double-digit improve in attain from the PGA Tour, as they’ve been capable of additional dig into the intelligence that they’re now able to receiving by way of different companions.”
These are all good factors, all truthful defenses of a enterprise that most likely isn’t as unhealthy because the sky-is-falling TV scores protection (of which this column already does far an excessive amount of) suggests. However can we really imagine Jay Monahan when he says he isn’t too fearful about TV scores?
Unusually, and just for the second, sure.
Monahan is clearly conflating the reality within the hopes he can divert consideration away from the actually unhealthy numbers and into a number of the less-unhealthy ones. He clearly understands that Nielsen is to not blame for his golf tour’s scores falling in 2024, as a result of if Nielsen had been responsible, each different present on tv would have fallen by comparable margins. He doesn’t significantly imagine consumption and attain are extra useful quantifiers than TV viewers.
However he does perceive an important piece of the TV scores gambit, which is that nothing issues in the course of a contract. The PGA Tour is certain to NBC and CBS by way of the top of the last decade by two separate, very massive portions of paper: a number of billion {dollars} and lots of tons of of pages of legalese. That a lot isn’t altering. And, till it comes time to start out negotiating rights once more seemingly someday in ’28 or ’29, it won’t change.
For Monahan to undermine the Tour’s place by calling out its yr of dreadful TV scores is an personal aim not price taking. The paycheck is similar it doesn’t matter what he says. The identical is true for the community’s TV companions, which is why we’ve heard nothing however phrases of assist, and to some extent dismissal, about low-ratings grumbles.
For the golf public to obsess over those self same TV scores is an personal aim of comparable, if barely extra comprehensible, proportions. The numbers really feel like they matter, particularly now. For higher or worse, the one quantifiable battlefields within the struggle between the PGA Tour and LIV exist on the main championships and within the Nielsen information. If the numbers are down, they have to imply one thing, particularly when these numbers verify our preexisting emotions of existential dread.
The reality is that the numbers do imply one thing, simply seemingly a bit of bit lower than you’ve allowed your self to imagine. The PGA Tour will most likely not get dumped by its TV companions or offered off for scraps earlier than the top of its contract, which implies the Tour has a number of years, if no more, earlier than the general public considerations of in the present day turn out to be ample trigger for boardroom freakouts.
The information isn’t good. Falling 15 p.c in a yr is like shedding 15 video games within the first half of an NBA season. We’re closing in on the All-Star break nevertheless it’s not too late to show issues round.
Be involved, be very involved in case you’d like. Simply don’t be shocked when Jay Monahan tells you he isn’t.
You’ll be able to attain the creator at james.colgan@golf.com
