Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/6/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people! It’s been awhile since I did considered one of these due to much more July chaos than common — Substitute Degree Killers, commerce deadline and Corridor of Fame stuff. Glad to lastly squeeze considered one of these in.

Jay Jaffe: (grateful for the ZiPS assist from Dan Szymborski on that one and sure, i’ll take the over on the post-2024 Trout projection)

Ryan: For what Preller needed to minimize in payroll and buying and selling Soto I believe that is his greatest job as a GM to this point. It simply looks as if a extra full group then any of his earlier iterations. Ideas on the job he’s achieved with the restrictions positioned on him?

Jay Jaffe: As famous above, I wrote concerning the Padres on Friday. They’ve handled some important accidents however this has turned out to be a deeper squad than final yr, partly as a result of they someway lucked right into a Jurickson Profar profession yr after a season that may have been a career-ender, and since the Jackson Merrill middle discipline transfer has paid off so nicely. I believed they did very nicely in augmenting their bullpen on the deadline.

Lengthy story brief, the Padres’ power in scouting below Preller, and his philosophy about buying and selling them as a substitute of getting too connected to them, has allowed him to strengthen his rosters and stay aggressive even whereas coping with some limitations.

Doc: Do you have got a tackle Mark Vientos?  I didn’t see this coming.  He’s been a dependable risk offensively, and greater than sufficient defensively.  He’s no Francisco, however the Mets wouldn’t be the place they’re immediately with out him.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have a powerful take however figured that between Vientos and Baty, it wasn’t unreasonable that one would pan out and supply some real assist. And I agree that Vientos’ bat has greater than offset the considerations about his glove.

Benjamin, J: Does Jose Ramirez’s multifaceted method to the sport make him much less more likely to earn induction into the Corridor of Fame? I can’t assist however fear that since Jose’s not the defender Scott Rolen is (but additionally not the hitter Chipper Jones is) that he might get left behind

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s generally more durable for a candidate with a broader ability set to face out to voters, however we’re speaking a few participant who’s already banked 4 top-four finishes within the AL MVP voting; the writers are conscious that he’s been the most effective gamers within the league, and an enormous cause that Cleveland has been so aggressive within the AL Central.

12 to six: so far this season, this mlb group has misplaced/been with out for important durations: its beginning ss (and mvp candidate and second greatest hitter), substitute ss (and gold glove stage defender), beginning 1b (and mvp canddiate and third greatest hitter), beginning 3b (and all star, lynchpin energy hitter), beginning proper fielder (and greatest defensive common outfielder), second and third most pivotal bullpen arms, and their #2, #3, and #4 opening day pitching rotation members, in addition to (as well as) three of their greatest beginning pitchers (and different sundry items); but, they’re in first place and have the second greatest run differential in baseball.

i invite folks to criticize friedman’s work – it’s *exceptional* that the dodgers proceed to dominate given their harm patterns this yr.

Jay Jaffe: I believe that litany overstates issues a bit (Freeman lacking 8 video games isn’t the identical as Mookie lacking two months, Heyward now not actually being a daily or an important defender) however sure, it’s spectacular that the Dodgers have survived so many accidents and underperformaces. They actually have made a factor out of cultivating some wonderful depth, which has helped them keep away from panicking after they’ve misplaced, say, Yamamoto and Glasnow to the IL on the similar time whereas Kershaw was nonetheless rehabbing.

That stated, I additionally was impressed by their touchdown Flaherty for seemingly not a lot whereas different contenders sat on their palms almost about frontline pitching.

Matt: Hey Jay, do you suppose the Covid-shortened season can have any impact on gamers HOF probabilities? I consider somebody like Jose Ramirez, who was on tempo for a 7-8 WAR season and will have gotten round 100 extra hits in a 162-game schedule. When you may argue he’s nicely on his technique to the HOF, gamers like Nolan Arenado, Felix Hernandez and Manny Machado (to an extent) present generally the descent is extra pronounced than gradual.

Jay Jaffe: it would have an impact in relation to some edge circumstances, simply because the 1981 and ’94 strikes did, however I don’t suppose anyone who lived via the 2020 season goes to overlook the circumstances of what the gamers went via and what they misplaced anytime quickly. This isn’t going to be like 1992 voters failing to contemplate what Bobby Grich misplaced within the ’81 strike.

Selina: Three sturdy new candidates (Ichiro and CC).  A hopeful shoo-in (Wagner).  A number of returnees with momentum (Beltran, Andruw, Utley).  A powerful first-year class, with a number of newcomers who will in all probability have sufficient juice to clear 5% (Felix, Marin, McCann, Pedroia).  So:  does Wright fall off the poll on his second go-around after simply clearing the hurdle final time?  Is there any manner he makes headway in the direction of a 10-year run (ala Pettitte)?

Jay Jaffe: 6.2% doesn’t go away Wright lots of wiggle room but it surely wouldn’t shock me if he sticks round for at the very least one other yr whereas McCann and Martin fall wanting 5% regardless of my greatest efforts to FRAME their circumstances (see what I did there?). That stated I don’t suppose his case is lengthy sufficient for him to linger the way in which Pettitte has, as a result of the latter has some elements of his resumé (256 wins, large postseason credentials and rings) that Wright doesn’t. Additionally the HGH disadvantage, however longevity drives candidacies greater than high-peak/brief profession does

Lance: In a world the place Wagner doesn’t get elected this time, is he a shoo in for the 2026 Up to date Committee slot?  Or is the make-up of the voters extra possible to offer us Jeff Kent and Don Mattingly?

Jay Jaffe: Bonds, Clemens and Schilling went from the BBWAA to Period Committee ballots with out interruption, however the Corridor now has a rule in place stopping different candidates from doing the identical, so if Wagner falls brief this yr (no pun meant), he must wait till the 2029 Up to date poll to be thought of once more. Which might suck.

Jay Jaffe: Some important accidents, stunning underperformances, and an try and re-create the 2021 recipe for choosing up outfielders off the scrapheap has left the Braves in a extra precarious place than they’ve been for a lot of the yr.

RookieWookie: With 2+ months to go within the season, Gerrit Cole goes to have to indicate us one thing if he thinks he can decide out of the final 4/144 of his contract, proper? Undecided what number of takers there can be on guaranteeing him $150mm at this level given age/well being considerations?

Jay Jaffe: In the long run I strongly suspect that his opting out might be a precursor to a restructured deal that lowers his AAV and helps the Yankees a bit almost about their CBT state of affairs

Will: Who do you want for ROY at this level and why?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I don’t know but. There do appear to be much more candidates within the NL. Skenes, Shota, Merrill, Winn… I believe Yamamoto’s harm in all probability guidelines him out. Gil, Miller, Cowser, Wells within the AL. I don’t see sufficient separation but to have an actual favourite in both league, so we’ll see how these guys do down the stretch.

By the tip of it, Skenes might have the majority to be the clear favourite within the NL.

Daniel: Does it offer you just a bit little bit of pause to debate Griffey ‘s profession as a disappointing end result for Trout? I suppose it speaks to Trout’s greatness. Nevertheless it’s odd to me that anybody can be anticipated to be a prime 5 participant. These are the outliers amongst outliers.

Jay Jaffe: It’s not a lot that Griffey’s profession is a disappointing end result, it’s that the resemblance between the shapes of Trout and Griffey’s careers up to now implies that we’re not going to see a complete lot extra greatness from Trout. I hope we’re incorrect about that.

I believe we overlook how exceptional Griffey’s profession was. Till he got here alongside, there wasn’t a single total #1 decide who made the Corridor of Fame. No one had lived as much as these expectations. Griffey did it, then Chipper and Mauer (A-Rod did it too, however… ). You’d take that profession from any 1/1 decide. That Trout surpassed that to place himself within the dialog alongside the likes of Mays and Bonds, even for a short while, is unimaginable too.

Butter Brickle: How are the parallels between Mike Trout and Andruw Jones so far as  middle fielders whose productiveness dropped off markedly of their 30s (for no matter causes)

Jay Jaffe: Proper now there’s a superficial resemblance, in that Jones had 58.0 bWAR via age 29, 4.7 after, however Trout is at 76.3/10.0 so he’s already doubled the 30s manufacturing and continues to be far above league common and below contract, so he’ll get to maintain going.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: and primarily based on a desk I created for The Cooperstown Casebook

Matt: Roughly what number of wins will shedding Westy price the Os?

Jay Jaffe: possibly zero if both Holliday or Mayo clicks upon getting some enjoying time.

Jason: From a group constructing perspective, would you agree that the Diamondbacks appear arrange for fulfillment? Good core of younger, productive gamers surrounded by a number of key veterans.

Jay Jaffe: They’re in a good place however I’m completely nervous about Carroll, and I haven’t actually seen them produce the form of beginning pitching they’re going to want to maneuver off the Wild Card fringe.

wheelhouse: you suppose jazz sticks at 3B going ahead?

Jay Jaffe: Undecided but, however I believe this winter the Yankees will be capable of use his flexibility when planning what to as soon as Gleyber Torres reaches free company.

Jay Jaffe: Good lord do they should transfer on from Torres

Guardcore Clevelander: Enjoyable reality, since Danny Jansen acquired traded to the Pink Sox and is more likely to play within the August twenty sixth rematch of the rain-postponed June twenty sixth recreation (the place he performed for the Blue Jays on the time), so he might find yourself within the field rating on each groups without delay.

Jay Jaffe: With apologies to the complications that is going to trigger Sean Forman, I hope we see this.

Daniel: Do you get vibes from George Kirby that his profession may find yourself trying particular? Not simply by way of worth but additionally traits? Would his uniqueness, in your thoughts, increase his probabilities of ending up with extra historic signfiicance?

Jay Jaffe: Individuals who know much more about pitching than I do like his stuff loads (which isn’t to say that I don’t). However ultimately the importance goes to come back from him sticking round and remaining very productive, no matter how he will get there. These guys are in very brief provide proper now.

Guardcore Clevelander: How far off is Ketel Marte from a possible HoF invite post-career? I acknowledge that he’s a transparent stage under the Ramirez’s and Lindors of comparable age, however his greatest manufacturing has been jaw dropping every time it occurs.

Jay Jaffe: I like him as a participant however Corridor-wise he’s acquired 30.2 profession bWAR and a 29.6-WAR seven-year peak, with two seasons of 5.0 WAR or higher together with this one, plus a 4.9. He’s going to want a number of All-Star seasons in his 30s to emerge as an actual candidate.

Visitor: Witt or Elly can have a greater profession?  Witt clearly is having a greater yr, however Elly’s age 22 season is blowing the doorways off Witt’s age 22 season.

Jay Jaffe: Witt, whose defensive metrics have improved a lot at shortstop that I’ve little doubt he can stick there for awhile. I’m much less certain about Elly but on that entrance, for as entertaining a participant as he’s.

btownfritz: What sort of contract do you see Soto signing?

Jay Jaffe: One thing within the $47-48 million AAV vary (after deferrals) to take over #1 in that division. Possibly 11/$517M with some bells and whistles (opt-outs, choices)

Biff: Any probability that Marte or Lindor topple Ohtani for MVP?  Ohtani has a big WAR lead, however, nearly as good as he’s, is he ok to win with out enjoying a defensive place whereas Lindor and Marte each play up-the-middle positions and have single-handedly saved their groups in rivalry.

Jay Jaffe: I’m an enormous Lindor fan who caught hell from the idioterati for a chunk in late 2022 suggesting he was having an MVP-caliber season. He’s having a really related season offensively to what he’s achieved in every of the previous two seasons, and people amounted to 2 Ninth-place finishes within the voting, so I don’t see what’s going to place him forward of Ohtani, who with out enjoying protection has the upper WAR than both of them.

Tike Mrout: A query I’ve all the time had about JAWS, Jay: Why 7 years for the height? Is it simply to match as intently as attainable the historic norms of HOF voting? And have you ever examined how delicate the outcomes are to altering to six or 8 years and so forth?

Jay Jaffe: as soon as upon a time, when JAWS was primarily based on Baseball Prospectus’ WARP, I examined a number of completely different iterations and located that 7 years labored higher than 6 or 8 or 10. I’ve caught with it partly as a result of it took practically a decade for some folks to get that I wasn’t nonetheless utilizing my unique definition of peak, which was greatest 5 consecutive years.

Connor Norby: This dude just isn’t ok to play 2B for the post-deadline Marlins???

Jay Jaffe: or they’re messing together with his service time or simply conserving him away from their present rubbish hearth.

Matt VW: The place would you have got Wilyer Abreu on an AL ROY poll?

Jay Jaffe: IIRC Rookie of the 12 months ballots are 5 deep. He’d be in rivalry for my prime 5 within the AL but when I drew it up immediately I’m unsure he’d be on it. I’m unsure he *wouldn’t* be on it, both.

David: Ideas on who’s main the AL West on September 1 (and on the finish of the yr)? Astros appear to be cooling off and the Mariners schedule appears brutal.

Jay Jaffe: To paraphrase what was stated concerning the 1944 World Sequence, I don’t see how anyone can win the division. Each time I believe the Astros are lifeless attributable to their accidents, they arrive again, and each time I write off the Mariners, they discover a technique to stick round. FWIW the strength-of-schedule measure in our Playoff Odds provides the Astros solely a three-point edge (.499 HOU, .502 SEA)

Ben: Austin Wells, prime 5 catcher in baseball?? Anticipated stats appear to assist however it’s a bit exceptional he’s outperformed his 2023 MiLB efficiency on the massive league stage

Jay Jaffe: He’s made some nice strides defensively from what I perceive (I’m not the prospect man), and his precise manufacturing is catching as much as his Statcast-expected manufacturing. In a yr the place two of the 5 greatest catchers from latest years (Realmuto and Contreras) have missed important time attributable to accidents, he’s third in WAR amongst that group, and in far much less enjoying time than anybody else within the prime 7. It is going to be fascinating to see whether or not he can maintain that, and it helps that the Yankees have one other productive catcher to pair him with in Trevino

Edward: Off the highest of your head, 10 largest Corridor snubs of the post-integration period (excluding these on poll)?  Allen, Munson, Whitaker, Grinch, Keith, Cone, Hershiser, Stieb, Johan, Lofton?  Apart from Allen, who’s most probably to make it via the Committee course of?  (As a baseball lifer, would like to see Keith, however he appears to get misplaced behind Mattingly depsite the JAWS/WAR differential.)

Jay Jaffe: you’d should put Bonds and Clemens among the many snubs, and I suppose possibly Schilling till you think about the harm he’s inflicted upon his candidacy. I’d in all probability think about Kevin Brown and Dwight Evans for the highest 10 too. Allen, Grich, Whitaker, Munson, Hernandez… It’s arduous to pare the record to 10.

sgb523: Are some positions overvalued by WAR reminiscent of ss and 2b?

Jay Jaffe: It could be straightforward to say, “nope, they’re all completely valued” and name it a day, however you realize what, if Tom Tango and Sean Forman and Sean Smith and others concerned within the builds of WAR have considered this and are available out the place they’ve come out, with their positional changes as excessive as they’re, I don’t I’ve the chops to show them incorrect, and I’m guessing you don’t both.

AL Central Casting: Is the Twins’ offense being missed? Attributable to accidents – principally these to Royce Lewis – no person actually stands out on the leaderboards, however the unit as a complete is extraordinarily productive.

Jay Jaffe: Agreed. Most of their greatest hitters by price stats (Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Miranda) have missed substantial time however total they’re fairly good.

Jay Jaffe: Okay people, nonetheless loads of good questions within the queue however I’ve acquired to mosey on down the highway. Thanks for stopping by! No chat from me subsequent week as I might be on trip.