Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –12/17/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon! And welcome to (lastly) my first FanGraphs chat of December 2024. It has as soon as once more been too lengthy, and as proof for the way rusty I’m, I promoted this on the socials for being at 2 pm (ye olde slotte) as a substitute of midday. So, thanks to those that figured it out with out my assist.

Jay Jaffe: I had a good time with my FG colleagues on the Winter Conferences final week. After sickness and different points reduce into our group final yr, we had a really full lineup, and we ate effectively and had a number of laughs.

Jay Jaffe: The Russell Martin one is deliberate for tomorrow.

Wealthy Allen and the Ebonistics: Lastly!

Jay Jaffe: Dick Allen’s election was so overdue that I felt extra reduction than pleasure. It’s a bittersweet second — he’s gotten the popularity he deserves, however isn’t round to get pleasure from it. On reflection, the Phillies’ transfer to retire his quantity in September 2020, only a few months earlier than his loss of life, looms giant as he did at the least get that second within the solar. And for no matter my perturbances are in the case of squaring Dave Parker’s lackluster JAWS along with his election, I’m glad he’s round to simply accept the honour as a result of these post-death elections are actually not one of the simplest ways to do it.

Jay Jaffe: For individuals who didn’t get the reference to the chat title above, that was the moniker Allen used when he launched a single in 1968.

Jay Jaffe: Most likely for the perfect he saved his day job, truthfully.

Talfred: Do you assume the Yankees are decided to get Decide out of middle subject, or would they be open to having him play there full-time once more if the roster comes collectively that approach?

Jay Jaffe: they’d have saved him in middle in the event that they re-signed Soto, so I don’t assume this was a hardline resolution, only a choice. In the event that they in some way landed Mookie Betts in a commerce (man, that’d be bizarre), they’d most likely do it that approach too (assuming they didn’t have a emptiness at 2B), however I think about by the point you get down the listing — and it’s not that a lot additional down — to Kyle Tucker you’d have a Tucker-Dominguez-Decide outfield as the primary alternative

Idiotic Failson: “Caleb Durbin is our 2b” all the time felt like “Bubba Crosby is our LF” for NY, however even that’s now implausible as they traded Mr. Durbin for a better. What on this planet are the Yankees going to do with 2B?

Jay Jaffe: Willie Randolph is sitting by the cellphone, ready.

Jay Jaffe: I actually don’t know. I suppose it’s doable they create again Torres as a result of the opposite FA choices are mainly stopgaps. I don’t assume Oswaldo Cabrera or DJ LeMahieu is an appropriate choice to take into spring coaching so that they’ll need to scare up a commerce someplace.

J Co: Hello Jay and Blissful Holidays.  I actually get pleasure from your work on the HOF.  What’s your tackle leisure worth of a participant because it pertains to the HOF?  Does it and the way does it think about to your votes.  For instance, Vlad Guerrero was shy of the JAWS normal for RF, however he was for my part a really entertaining participant to look at, so I believe it was simple for voters to pick out him.  Likewise, I believe Ichiro’s leisure worth makes him an easy sure vote even when his superior stats might need in any other case given some voters pause.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the type phrases. The leisure worth is secondary however… not insignificant. I even have some ideas on this, esp. vis-à-vis Ichiro, that I’ll air someday after the election

drplantwrench: im an enormous believer in utilizing all 10 votes and a extra inclusive HoF and ive seen a number of ballots that solely use 3.  what are your ideas on utilizing a restricted variety of votes vs utilizing all 10?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve gotten out of the enterprise of commenting on particular person ballots however good lord these 3-name ones annoy the piss out of me. These are probably the most gatekeep-ass voters round, and appear to assume in the event that they vote for too many candidates — greater than they will depend with the fingers they’re not utilizing to stroke their smug faces — that there is perhaps an excessive amount of pleasure someplace. AND WE CAN’T HAVE THAT

drplantwrench: who’s the subsequent Angel to be voted into the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: Albert Pujols, eligible 2029 poll (however he’ll put on a Cardinals cap as a result of duh).

Jay Jaffe: So if you happen to’re not counting him, it’s Mike Trout.

Jay Jaffe: It ain’t Bobby Grich, alas.

Barry M.: Roki Sasaki prediction?

Jay Jaffe: The Padres look like the obvious match. Perhaps the Giants? I believe West Coast.

Tim: What’s an affordable expectation for Tomoyuki Sugano? As an O’s fan, I discover it mildly dispiriting that we’re reaching again to the 2017 WBC for efficiency clips.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have an important learn on him myself and haven’t had time to do a lot homework however his high-grounder, low-walk, meh-strikeout charge combo recommend one thing alongside the strains of Hiroki Kuroda however with barely higher velo.

HOF sequence: Thanks for the HOF sequence. I’m not precisely within the Corridor of Fame, however I’m all the time struck by what I’ve forgotten about these individuals — did Dave Parker actually play for the Brewers, as an example? Effectively, sure, he did, despite the fact that I solely keep in mind him winding up with Oakland. A lot appreciated.

Jay Jaffe: it’s a fuel to revisit these guys’ careers and see a number of the detours they took. Baseball from 1989-91 was significantly off my radar as I used to be in school and principally with no TV so there are player-team combos that I’ve no reminiscence of, and Parker-Brewers is certainly considered one of them. For that matter, whereas they each predate my baseball consciousness, Dick Allen on the A’s all the time appears bizarre, as does Dick Allen on the Dodgers

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, glad you get pleasure from!

Mike Trout: I hold seeing that Juan Soto will finally be a DH however is there any purpose he couldn’t transfer to 1B as a substitute?

Jay Jaffe: I suppose it’s doable nevertheless it ain’t as simple because it appears to be like (inform ’em, Wash!), and never each outfield convert is Bryce Harper, any person who actually throws himself into such a transfer.

1B-related HOF notice: I’m studying Dave Parker’s autobiography Cobra, accomplished in collaboration with Dave Jordan. It’s excellent (nice reward thought for the baseball fan in your life) however what I used to be not conscious of was that the Pirates within the early/mid-’70s had such an outfield logjam that they tried Parker at first base earlier than finally shifting Willie Stargell there completely c. 1975.

David: Are you optimistic about Holmes turning into a starter with the Mets?

Jay Jaffe: I just like the transfer greater than the Frankie Montas signing, and assume he could be stable. The Mets did fairly effectively revitalizing the careers of Severino, Manaea, and Quintana and Holmes does have great things, so I guess it really works out

Roman: Thanks for all of the chats and articles this yr. Maybe that is too machiavellian, but when the As are solely involved with hitting the wage minimal, why aren’t they utilizing their “cap house” to tackle underwater contracts that may include prospects hooked up (arenado, montgomery, and many others)? Giving up picks for Severino and Springs doesn’t make sense

Jay Jaffe: A great query although Arenado didn’t embody them on his commerce listing (Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Pink Sox) in order that ain’t occurring.

Jay Jaffe: I believe principally they need to look busy and get the union off their backs, precise roster planning is secondary

StiebTea: Oh! I’ve been trying ahead to the Martin piece … and never solely as a result of I do know you’ve been hinting at some surprises. Any spoilers you possibly can share forward of time? Martin > Molina? and many others. …and welcome again, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: Martin is correct close to the highest of the dimensions in the case of pitch-framing. He’s a Molina-like candidate however with considerably higher offense however not pretty much as good an arm. Sadly, Molina crowded him out of the Gold Gloves and he by no means made the World Collection, however the man was a greater ballplayer than some individuals understand.

wheelhouse: am I flawed to be exhausting out on christian walker as a free agent? giving a 34-year-old righty 1B-only with a very-good-not-great bat is the type of factor that bites groups within the ass on a regular basis

Jay Jaffe: he’s a legitimately plus defender (“precise difference-making first base protection,” to make use of Ben Clemens’ phrases, and Ben watched a ton of video to vote for the Fielding Bible Awards), which raises his ground. I share your issues to a point however as long as he’s not anticipated to be the middle-of-the-lineup stud, I believe on a three-year deal, he’d most likely be tremendous

Idiotic Failson: Do you assume Decide might hit 100 HR a yr within the KBO or NPB?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a enjoyable query to ponder. I’m wondering what Dan Szymborski would undertaking!

Jay Jaffe: I’ll say “no” however solely as a result of he’d get drained operating across the bases so typically.

Uncle Spike: Inform us one thing fascinating about members of the Fangraphs workers.

Jay Jaffe: Davy Andrews is a superb baker! Michael Baumann spends extra time speaking about school baseball than the parents at Baseball America! Jon Becker has superb spreadsheets! I can’t share an excessive amount of extra with out violating the workers omerta although.

Third Base Standings: With the election of Rolen, Beltre, and (now) Allen, is third base higher and extra absolutely represented within the Corridor than it was earlier than? Or does work must be accomplished nonetheless?

Jay Jaffe: That’s an enchancment however there are nonetheless solely 18 non-Negro Leagues/Black baseball third basemen, in comparison with 23 shortstops and 29 proper fielders, which is the non-pitcher excessive. Extra work to be accomplished

Phil: Why do you assume there appears to be a lot divergence in opinion about Triston Casas? I believed you stats guys liked walk-taking energy guys, however Dan S. appeared unimpressed, and folk have opined in regards to the rumored Casas for Castillo commerce as being lopsided in each instructions, which appears paradoxical.

Jay Jaffe: I actually don’t know, except it’s the subpar defensive metrics which have restricted his worth. I’d like to see Casas get a full main league season collectively; he looks as if a great constructing block, however typically I do not know what the Pink Sox are doing in the case of place gamers. I believed, for instance, that Connor Wong’s defensive shortcomings made conserving Kyle Teel an apparent alternative however I assume they needed Crochet extra, and that i get that.

StiebTea: As starter utilization and expectations proceed to alter, do you assume profession evaluations will proceed shifting towards peak weight and away from longevity? I do know up to now you’ve burdened the seven yr peak … may that shorten? (Is it already?) I promise this isn’t a disguised King Felix query … however I assume it form of is ….

Jay Jaffe: I believe that’s most likely the way in which it’s going to go, at the least partially. Gonna spend a while on this in February, I believe (not that it’ll essentially see the sunshine of day).

Mike Ortman: As increasingly gamers from the Cooperstown Casebook are elected, I really feel like a component two is increasingly wanted, with a second wave of essays on worthy candidates. Do you see that taking place and when?

Jay Jaffe: I would like to do a second version and positively have a storehouse of candidates and subjects, however discovering the time to jot down it’s one difficulty and discovering a writer is one other. It’s doable that I would pursue a self-published method however … I’ve some analysis and logistical obstacles to determine, amongst different issues.

Phil: Concerning the leisure issue, the place would you rank the jerk-nice man spectrum as an HOF criterion? I’ve been stunned to see some stuff on the market about Suzuki on this regard, however I assume he may very well be fairly curt with beat writers.

Jay Jaffe: 99.9% of the time, that stuff shouldn’t matter, and airing it says extra in regards to the particular person complaining than the participant. Oh, Ichiro — probably the most in-demand participant of his time, media-wise, and in want of a translator — didn’t reply your each inane query?

Jay Jaffe: That mentioned, I do perceive {that a} author may bear a grudge if a participant lied to them about one thing necessary. A complete lot of the PED-related grievances among the many citizens come from that viewpoint, and likewise a number of the resistance to Beltán.

Adam: Do you see the Phillies shaking up the roster like they mentioned they might? I all the time see bohm tossed round as a commerce piece, however what do you truly see them doing this offseason? They’ll’t presumably plan to run it again once more…

Jay Jaffe: I’d be stunned if it’s in depth however Bohm’s title has been tossed round sufficient that I guess he will get moved. The transfer I’d make could be to ship Nick Castellanos anda truck full of money to wherever will take him as a result of he’s largely been a catastrophe (internet 1.4 WAR in 3 years). Cody Bellinger would make sense right here, enormous outfield protection improve and doesn’t must be the lineup centerpiece.

Visitor: As Andrew Jones continues his more and more doubtless ascent to Cooperstown, how doubtless do you assume a revisiting of Jim Edmonds’s case

Jay Jaffe: As I attempted to convey within the Félix Hernández article, you completely shouldn’t maintain your breath ready on your pet one-and-done man to get on an Period Committee poll as a result of the Historic Overview Committee isn’t gonna save them, in all chance. Ted Simmons is the one one to go that route and get in. Lou Whitaker has been on one poll and was left off the subsequent one regardless of a stable exhibiting. Bobby Grich, David Cone, Dave Stieb, no love. Johan Santana isn’t even eligible till 2029, don’t wait up. Edmonds shall be eligible in 2026 2029 however there’s no approach on God’s inexperienced earth he’s going to seek out room when Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield, Schilling, and Kent are all prone to be on there. [Update: Tracker Team member Anthony Calamis reminded me that Edmonds won’t be eligible in 2026; he’ll have to wait until 2029, as the rules no longer allow for a BBWAA candidate to move directly to the Era Committee process — which was the case for BB, RC, and CS — without a one-year delay. It’s still the same potential pool of candidates, plus Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel and (hopefully not) Billy Wagner.]

Mike M.: Following Manfred’s lead, the BBWA provides one HOF voter a “golden vote” which lets you write in a single title for computerized induction into HOF. Who’s bought your golden vote?

Jay Jaffe: I’d have to consider this for longer however my knee-jerk reply is Barry Bonds

Fally: Does Cody Bellinger have adverse commerce worth?

Jay Jaffe: Not adverse however the opt-out clause complicates issues drastically.

SKip: Foolish query however does being energetic for 10 years to be Corridor eligible imply you simply need to play one recreation in throughout the season? If a man got here up and pulled a Steve Nebraska one time a yr for a decade is he eligible for the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: One recreation counts as a yr for Corridor functions however there’s nonetheless a lot gatekeeping in constructing the ballots that no person with 9 years + 1 recreation is getting on there except it’s an elite participant and an excessive circumstance (consider the Mike Trout hit by a bus instance)

Yeah Effectively Hiura Towel: Did you do a HOF replace on Chris Sale that I missed? Looks as if he’s nearly however not fairly there.

Jay Jaffe: I coated him on this yr’s roundup (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2024-progress-rep…) and have talked about him in passing since, however I do see him as again on the radar. He’s now at 53.4/41.7/47.5, which places him tied with Tommy John for 76th,  one spot under Orel Hershiser, seven under Johan Santana, six above Andy Pettite, and 21 above Félix Hernández (3.4 factors behind). If the latter had his line, he’d actually have made my life a lot simpler, could be a simple vote, and as it’s, I’d most likely tab Sale if he got here up for election along with his CURRENT physique of labor. He’s the short-career, high-peak template in my thoughts proper now.

Mike Ortman: Jay give us an replace in your prime ten Outsiders because it stands now. I’m positive Dick Allen was excessive on that listing.

Jay Jaffe: This appears to be like lots like a January column!

Theo be Praised: Cubs are pursuing Jesus Luzardo, which might give them 4 left-handed starters within the rotation.  Conceptually, is that an issue?  Or does starter handedness probably not matter at that macro stage like it will in bullpen?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, possibly a bit, however not an enormous one. Get good pitchers and the remainder will kind itself out.

Additionally it will be nice to have Jesus Luzardo and the Jesus Lizard (whom I noticed final week on their newest reunion tour; they nonetheless slay) in the identical metropolis.

Chip: Hey Jay – on a current EW episode, a listener (Michael Mountain, possibly?) got here on and mentioned his WAA-based model of JAWS, which he named BOOG. I’m curious if you happen to heard about this/listened to it, and your ideas. As a peak-over-career man, it intrigues me

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t hear it — I don’t have a lot bandwidth for podcasts, and I don’t have a lot bandwidth for many issues this time of yr. I’ve piddled round briefly with WAA nevertheless it correlates so extremely with WAR7 (about .8 for the highest 100, and 87 for the highest 300 in the case of beginning pitchers) that it looks as if there could be much less gained and extra misplaced by altering — I nonetheless get individuals who assume I’m utilizing finest 5 consecutive for peak which is why I’ve come to not thoughts the “WAR7” tag.

Jay Jaffe: forgot so as to add that my correlation take a look at there was for beginning pitchers, which is de facto the place it is perhaps of use. I did have a look at Félix’s WAA; he’s 111th there all-time, vs. one hundred and fifteenth in WAR.

Jay Jaffe: Perhaps in January i’ll test that podcast out although, I don’t need to dismiss it with out listening to him out.

Captainjameshook: sorry we by no means linked up at Double Windsor earlier than we purchased a home and moved to rva however hope you’re digging the neighborhood!

Jay Jaffe: aw, drat! I went for lunch there final month with Graig Kreindler, the good baseball painter, and I bought noticed by one other baseball-loving bartender. That was humorous.

Anyway, digging the neighborhood. Hope your transfer goes effectively, too!

Jay Jaffe: With regards to lunch, it’s about that point for me, so I’m going to wind this up.

1) As you plot your vacation gift-giving, please hold a FanGraphs membership in thoughts for the baseball followers in your life (https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-membership/).

2) The shop the place I signed copies of The Cooperstown Casebook can now not reliably get them (the e book is out of print) however I do have some bookplates that I can ship. Hit me up on Bluesky (@jayjaffe.bsky.social) and we’ll kind it out.

3) No chat from me both of the subsequent two weeks on account of holidays however I’ll be churning out profiles proper up till subsequent week and possibly one (plus MY BALLOT) throughout the in any other case darkish/best-of week right here.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for stopping by, and please get pleasure from your Xmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/Festivus/New Yr’s Eve celebrations  responsibly!