The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing have a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Corridor of Fame poll. Initially written for the 2016 election at SI.com, it has been up to date to mirror current voting outcomes in addition to further analysis. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the sequence, use the software above; an introduction to JAWS may be discovered right here. All WAR figures seek advice from the Baseball-Reference model except in any other case indicated.
Billy Wagner was the last word underdog. Undersized and from each a damaged residence and an impoverished rural background, he channeled his frustrations into throwing extremely arduous — together with his left hand, regardless of being a pure righty, for he broke his proper arm twice as a toddler. Scouts ignored him as a result of he wasn’t wherever shut to 6 toes tall, however they couldn’t disregard his dominance over collegiate hitters utilizing a mid-90s fastball. The Astros made him a first-round choose, and as soon as he was transformed to a aid position, his velocity went even larger.
Because of excellent lower-body energy, coordination, and extraordinary vary of movement, the 5-foot-10 Wagner was capable of attain 100 mph with consistency — 159 instances in 2003, in line with The Invoice James Handbook. Utilizing a tough slider discovered from teammate Brad Lidge, he saved blowing the ball by hitters into his late 30s to such an extent that he owns the report for the best strikeout fee of any pitcher with not less than 900 innings. He was nonetheless dominant when he walked away from the sport following the 2010 season, contemporary off posting a career-best ERA.
Missing the longevity of Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman, Wagner by no means set any saves data and even led his league as soon as, and his innings whole is effectively under these of each enshrined reliever. Whereas Hoffman’s standing as the previous all-time saves chief helped him get elected in 2018, Wagner — who created related worth in his profession — has confronted main hurdles to getting acknowledged. However because of his extraordinary fee stats, he now stands on the doorstep of Cooperstown. Over the previous 5 election cycles, his share of the vote has greater than quadrupled, from 16.7% in 2019 to 73.8% in ’24, to the purpose that he missed election final yr by simply 5 votes. He’s now in his closing yr on the writers’ poll and, fortunately, a lot nearer to the 75% mark than the handful of current candidates whose elections went all the way down to their final at-bat, so to talk, specifically Tim Raines (2017), Edgar Martinez (2019), Larry Walker (2020), and Gary Sheffield (in need of the mark final yr, alas).
2025 BBWAA Candidate: Billy Wagner
Pitcher | WAR | WPA | WPA/LI | R-JAWS | IP | SV | ERA | ERA+ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Billy Wagner | 27.7 | 29.1 | 17.9 | 24.9 | 903 | 422 | 2.31 | 187 |
Avg HOF RP | 39.1 | 30.1 | 20.0 | 29.7 |
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
William Edward Wagner was born in Marion, Virginia, on July 25, 1971, into circumstances — as documented in a September 20, 1999 Sports activities Illustrated profile by Michael Bamberger — that had been hardly idyllic. Father William “Hotsey” Wagner, an all-county pitcher, married his 16-year-old bride, Yvonne Corridor, on the day he graduated highschool. Billy was born 13 months after they wed; two weeks later, Hotsey left for Saigon, the place he spent 9 months monitoring the urinalyses of U.S. troopers about to return residence from the Vietnam Warfare. His marriage collapsed after he returned residence in 1976. Billy and his youthful sister bounced round within the care of his divorced (and remarried, and re-divorced) mother and father and each units of grandparents. Poverty was a continuing, meals stamps a humiliation; “[a] few crackers with peanut butter and a glass of water” was a typical breakfast.
Whereas taking part in soccer at age seven, Wagner broke his proper (throwing) arm when a buddy fell on it; six weeks later, simply after the solid was eliminated, he broke it once more. Throughout this time, he discovered to throw left-handed, turning his baseball glove inside out and channeling his anger at his instability and grim environment into throwing a ball in conjunction with his maternal grandparents’ home, doing it so arduous that items of aluminum siding fell off. Lastly, simply earlier than he turned 15, he went to reside with Jack and Sally Lamie, his uncle and aunt, in Tannersville, 19 miles away. By that time, Billy had fallen a yr behind at school on account of his unstable residence scenario, however as soon as coaches and directors at Tazewell Excessive College (the closest highschool, an hour away) agreed that his throwing was a hazard to his middle-school friends, they “socially promoted” him into highschool.
Although he grew to only 5-foot-5 and 135 kilos in highschool, Wagner starred as each a middle fielder and pitcher whose fastball may attain 86 mph. As a senior in 1990, he hit .451, stole 23 bases, and struck out 116 in 46 innings with a 1.52 ERA. Scouts had been postpone by his measurement, so he adopted cousin Jeff Lamie to Ferrum School, a Division III college, with the intention of taking part in soccer — till the coach noticed him throw a baseball. At Ferrum, Wagner grew to 5-foot-9, gained 40 kilos, and boosted his velocity to 93 mph. As a sophomore in 1992, he allowed 9 hits in 51 innings and set an NCAA report with 19.1 strikeouts per 9. Whereas dominating the collegiate Cape Cod League, he struck out the aspect within the league’s All-Star sport with out permitting a foul ball. The Astros selected him with the twelfth choose within the 1993 draft.
By now 5-foot-10 and 170 kilos, Wagner started his skilled profession as a starter, battling management points however whiffing greater than a batter per inning at each cease and making Baseball America’s High 100 Prospects listing in 1994 (78th), ’95 (seventeenth), and ’96 (14th). In 1995, he posted a 2.89 ERA in hitter-friendly Double- and Triple-A environments, with 9.7 strikeouts per 9 in 146.1 innings. All of the extra spectacular was that his efficiency got here amid tragedy, as his spouse’s father — who had emerged as a father determine in Wagner’s life — and stepmother had been brutally murdered in Could, simply days after Wagner had been added to the Astros’ 40-man roster in anticipation of a late-season call-up.
Wagner made his main league debut on September 13, 1995 in Shea Stadium; mustering a fastball close to 100 mph, he retired the Mets’ Rico Brogna on a fly ball earlier than being lifted for a pinch-hitter by Astros supervisor Terry Collins. After 12 begins for Triple-A Tucson in 1996, the fire-balling Wagner, 24, joined the Astros’ bullpen in early June and supplanted the injured Todd Jones because the workforce’s nearer after the All-Star break. He transformed 9 saves in 13 probabilities, ending the yr with a 2.44 ERA and 11.7 strikeouts per 9 (but additionally 5.2 walks) in 51.2 innings. The Astros carried a two-and-a-half sport division lead into September, however a 4–16 tailspin to begin the month misplaced them the division and finally price Collins his job.
Underneath new supervisor Larry Dierker and powered by the “Killer B’s” — Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio — the Astros made the playoffs in every of the following three seasons, with Wagner rising as one of many sport’s most dominant closers. He saved 23 video games with a 2.85 ERA and 14.4 strikeouts per 9 in 1997, setting a report for a pitcher with not less than 50 innings. Regardless of lacking greater than three weeks in 1998 after taking a Kelly Stinnett line drive off his head, he topped that strikeout fee in every of the following two seasons and trimmed each his stroll fee and ERA. In 1999, he whiffed 14.9 per 9 and walked 2.8 en path to a 1.57 ERA with 39 saves in 74.2 innings. Not solely did Wagner make his first All-Star workforce, however he additionally tied teammate Jose Lima for fourth in a very Houston-heavy Cy Younger vote; ex-Astro Randy Johnson gained, and Mike Hampton completed second. Wagner’s 3.8 WAR led all Nationwide League relievers and almost topped the three.9 he had accrued within the earlier three seasons.
It was that September when Bamberger caught up with “the Astros’ smaller-than-life nearer” who “would tip the scales at his listed weight of 180 kilos solely after a 3rd serving to of grits,” exploring his tough previous in an try to seek out out, “The place does he get his warmth?”
He throws fastball after fastball, one four-seamer after one other, all within the A to A-plus vary. The motion on his pitches is depraved. Batters converse of heaters that begin at their heads and end on the knees, on the skin nook of the plate. On Wagner you’ll be able to guess fastball. (He throws solely occasional sliders and changeups.) What you’ll be able to’t do is hit it.
…It’s true that Wagner has excellent mechanics, which is wonderful when you think about that he’s a pure right-hander … Additionally it is true that he drives off the rubber in addition to any pitcher since Tom Seaver; his legs are thick and heavy for a person of his in any other case strange physique. It’s true that he has a outstanding capability to throw first-pitch strikes. However these information alone don’t start to reply the query.
In February 1999, Wagner had signed a three-year, $10.1 million extension, overlaying his arbitration years. For as sturdy as his 1999 was, his 2000 was a near-total loss: Wagner struggled together with his management in 27.2 innings earlier than admitting he had been throwing in ache and present process season-ending surgical procedure to restore a torn flexor tendon and take away scar tissue. With their bullpen a rubbish hearth, the Astros sank to 72–90, however each Wagner and the workforce rebounded in 2001. He made his second All-Star workforce, saved 39 video games, whiffed 11.3 per 9, and completed with 2.4 WAR; the Astros gained 93 video games and their fourth NL Central title in 5 years. Alas, they had been once more ousted within the first spherical by the Braves, the workforce that had additionally carried out so in 1997 and ’99.
By each WAR and ERA, Wagner’s efficiency continued to enhance in 2002 and ’03. Within the latter season — his third All-Star marketing campaign — he set profession highs with 86 innings and 44 saves en path to a 1.78 ERA, 11.0 strikeouts per 9, and three.4 WAR, the final of which edged John Smoltz for the lead amongst NL relievers. On June 11, 2003, Wagner helped to make baseball historical past when he closed out a mixed no-hitter of six pitchers towards the Yankees within the Bronx — the primary time New York had been no-hit since 1958. Two pitches into the second inning, starter Roy Oswalt needed to depart on account of a groin damage; relievers Pete Munro, Kirk Saarloos, Lidge, and Octavio Dotel carried the baton to Wagner, who struck out Jorge Posada and Bubba Trammell, then lined first base on Hideki Matsui’s game-ending groundout.
After lacking the playoffs in 2002, the Astros battled with the Cubs for the NL Central title in ’03, however a 3–6 report over the ultimate 9 video games price them a one-and-a-half sport lead. Whereas Wagner took a kind of losses, it was solely the second time over his closing 36 appearances that he allowed a run. After the season, he criticized proprietor Drayton McLane for the workforce’s failure to extend payroll to reinforce their rotation. “It’s going to be a tape job,” he mentioned after the workforce’s closing sport, seeking to subsequent season. “It’s not like we’re going on the market and getting any marquee pitchers.”
Wagner can be confirmed fairly unsuitable, however he had punched his personal ticket out of city. Owed $8 million for 2004 with a $9 million choice for ’05, he was traded to Philadelphia on November 3 for a trio of pitchers (Ezequiel Astacio, Taylor Buchholz, and Brandon Duckworth) who mixed to ship -3.5 WAR as Astros. Their sorry manufacturing was greater than offset by Houston’s marquee free-agent pitchers: Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. Although the latter was restricted to fifteen begins in 2004 on account of elbow surgical procedure, the previous gained his seventh Cy Younger award. The revamped Astros, who additionally added Carlos Beltrán for the 2004 stretch run, reached the NLCS that season and the World Collection in 2005. “I simply want he’d carried out this once we had been a sport out final season,” mentioned Wagner of McLane’s spending.
Although he joined a workforce that was starting to assemble the roster that might dominate the NL East from 2007 to ’11, Wagner’s two years in Philadelphia had been lower than fulfilling. Groin and rotator cuff strains price him two and a half months in 2004, limiting him to 48.1 innings. He rebounded with one other All-Star season in 2005 (1.51 ERA, 38 saves, 2.7 WAR), however his mouth continued to extend headlines. Amid a 4–12 July skid, he criticized the workforce’s depth, saying that the Phillies stop after they fell behind and that “we ain’t received an opportunity to get there proper now,” in reference to the postseason. Whereas the Phillies completed with 88 wins beneath new supervisor Charlie Manuel, they fell one sport in need of the Wild Card and two in need of the division title. Wagner spent the final third of the season in silence after receiving no help in a players-only assembly, then blasted his ex-teammates from afar after departing. Years later, he lamented, “I discovered loads about criticism and the way to not be a frontrunner after I was traded … I started to show into somebody I didn’t wish to be.”
A free agent for the primary time, the 34-year-old Wagner landed a four-year, $43 million take care of the Mets and sparked an inter-borough controversy: His entry tune, Metallica’s “Enter Sandman,” was already in use by the Yankees’ Rivera, although Wagner’s 1996 adoption predated Rivera by three years. The tune received a exercise in Queens: Wagner saved 40 of the Mets’ 97 wins as they claimed their first NL East title in 20 years. Accompanied by a usually low 2.24 ERA, his save whole ranked second within the league, the best he would ever end, and his 11.7 strikeouts per 9 was his highest mark since 1999. He notched the primary three saves of his postseason profession because the Mets downed the Dodgers and gained the NLCS opener towards the Cardinals, however he took the loss in Sport 2 by permitting three ninth-inning runs, then gave up two runs defending a 4–0 ninth-inning lead in Sport 6. In Sport 7, supervisor Willie Randolph left setup man Aaron Heilman in for his second inning of labor within the ninth inning of a tie sport; Wagner may solely watch as he served up a decisive two-run homer to Yadier Molina.
That was as shut as Wagner ever received to a World Collection. Although he pitched very effectively for many of 2007, saving 26 of his first 27 probabilities with a 1.28 ERA, he posted a 6.91 ERA from August 21 onward, a span of 14 appearances. That Mets workforce gained infamy for blowing a seven-game lead with 17 video games to go, dropping out on a playoff spot on the season’s closing day, however Wagner’s solely blown save in that span got here in a New York win. The workforce wound up exterior the playoff image on the ultimate day in 2008 as effectively, partly as a result of Wagner’s August 2 forearm pressure led to Tommy John surgical procedure.
When the Mets signed Francisco Rodríguez to a three-year, $37 million deal that winter, the writing was on the wall for the rehabbing Wagner. After making two late August appearances for the workforce, he waived his no-trade clause and was dealt to the Purple Sox, who in flip promised to not choose up his $8 million choice for 2010, granting him full freedom in selecting the place to pitch the next season. He was sturdy in 15 appearances for Boston, putting out 22 in simply 13.2 innings for a workforce that gained the Wild Card however was swept out of the primary spherical by the Angels.
In December 2009, Wagner signed a one-year, $7 million take care of Atlanta, and at 38, he pitched in addition to ever, posting a career-low 1.43 ERA and putting out 13.5 per 9 (his highest fee since 1999) in 69.1 innings en path to 2.5 WAR for yet one more Wild Card workforce that made a first-round exit. That season included two milestones as effectively. On June 25 towards the Tigers, he struck out the aspect on 10 pitches and have become the fifth pitcher to achieve 400 saves in his profession. On August 27, he struck out Giancarlo Stanton (then often called Mike) for his 1,one hundred and seventieth profession strikeout, surpassing Jesse Orosco for the report amongst left-handed relievers:
Regardless of triggering a vesting choice for 2011, Wagner adopted via with a choice introduced in Could to retire at season’s finish to spend extra time together with his household. No pitcher has ever walked away from his profession following a season of not less than 50 innings with a decrease ERA or the next strikeout fee.
…
Wagner holds another distinctions as effectively. Amongst pitchers with not less than 900 innings, his strikeout fee, whether or not expressed as 11.92 per 9 or as 33.2% of all batters confronted, is the most effective in historical past. Prior to now two seasons, Kenley Jansen (12.66 per 9, 35.4%) and Craig Kimbrel (14.06 per 9, 38.8%) have claimed that distinction on the 800-inning stage, which was the cutoff I had used for pre-2024 variations of this text. Of the pitchers who’ve reached 900 innings, Blake Snell (11.23 per 9), Chris Sale (11.09), and Robbie Ray (11.07) are the next-closest on a per-nine-innings foundation, and Jacob deGrom (31.0%) is subsequent on a share foundation, adopted by Sale (30.6%) and Snell (30.2%). With larger charges in fewer innings, Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman (14.76 Okay/9 and 40.0% in 760 innings) would possibly supplant Wagner on the 900-inning stage, however neither is assured to final that lengthy; the previous was designated for project in mid-September by the playoff-bound Orioles, and the latter has steered his profession to the brink on multiple event.
On the 900-inning stage, Wagner’s .187 opponent batting common is the lowest in historical past, 17 factors higher than the following Twentieth- or Twenty first-century pitcher, Nolan Ryan, although if we decrease the bar to 800 innings, Kimbrel (.169) and Jansen (.183) sneak previous him. Once more utilizing the 900-inning cutoff, Rivera is the one post-1920 pitcher with a decrease ERA (2.21) or larger ERA+ (205) than Wagner’s 2.31 and 187. His 2.73 FIP is the third-lowest in that span, behind solely deGrom (2.59) and Sandy Koufax (2.69). In the meantime, his 0.998 WHIP is the third-lowest all-time behind dead-ball period hurler Addie Joss (0.968) and deGrom (0.994). Wagner’s whole of 422 saves, in the meantime, ranks eighth on the all-time listing behind Rivera (652), Hoffman (601), Lee Smith (478), Jansen (447), Kimbrel (440), Rodriguez (437), and John Franco (424); the 2 energetic pitchers in that group surpassed him this previous season.
Is {that a} Corridor of Fame profession? As I’ve specified by connection to the current instances of Smith and Rivera, with such a restricted variety of relievers within the Corridor — the aforementioned pair, each elected in 2019, introduced the entire to eight — it’s tough to say, significantly given the position’s evolution over the previous half-century. Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, and Goose Gossage had been all multi-inning firemen who racked up larger innings totals than the enshrined relievers who adopted of their wake. Bruce Sutter labored a number of innings as effectively, although typically solely when his workforce had a lead slim sufficient to provide a save alternative. Dennis Eckersley, who spent the primary half of his profession as a starter, grew to become the mannequin for the one-inning nearer we all know in the present day. Even excluding his 3,285.2 innings, the opposite seven relievers elected averaged 1,496 innings, whereas Wagner threw solely 903, effectively under even Hoffman’s 1,089.1 and Sutter’s 1,042. The place the vast majority of the saves of Wilhelm, Fingers, Gossage, and Sutter had been longer than an inning, as had been 27% of Eckersley’s, solely 9% of Wagner’s had been.
Whereas one can actually make the case that, primarily based on fee stats, Wagner was extra dominant than any of them, his shortfall of innings presents an issue when translating to a worth measure resembling WAR. That mentioned, he was a lot extra dominant than Hoffman that the 2 are tied at 23.7 JAWS, with Hoffman’s slight edge in profession WAR (28.0–27.7) offset by Wagner’s slight edge in peak (19.8–19.4). Both manner, each are considerably under the requirements on the place even when I exclude Eckersley. The opposite seven elected relievers averaged 35.8 profession WAR, 23.6 peak WAR, and 30.1 JAWS. One can’t actually justify Wagner’s inclusion in Cooperstown on the premise of these metrics alone.
That doesn’t imply it’s sport over, although. As anybody who has been following me since I launched the metric that grew to become JAWS for the 2004 poll is aware of — at a degree when Sutter was nonetheless two years away from election, and Gossage 4 years away — I’ve by no means been solely happy with the way in which it handles relievers. Over time, I’ve employed varied hybrid metrics in an effort to discover a steadiness between one thing descriptive (what does this say about who’s within the Corridor?) and one thing prescriptive (what is that this telling us about who needs to be in?). Upon bringing my Corridor analyses to FanGraphs for the 2019 poll, I started utilizing one such hybrid measure in evaluating Wagner, and with the assistance of the great of us at Baseball Reference, R-JAWS (Reliever JAWS) was formalized in time for the 2022 election cycle, that means that their computer systems now do the mathematics as a substitute of mine.
Whereas the model of WAR utilized in JAWS options an adjustment for leverage — the quantitatively larger affect on profitable and dropping {that a} reliever has on the finish of the ballgame than a starter does earlier — to assist account for the diploma of problem, it’s not the one approach to measure reliever worth. Win Likelihood Added (WPA) is a context-sensitive measure that accounts for the incremental improve (or lower) within the probabilities of profitable produced in every plate look given the inning, rating, and base-out scenario. For a reliever, single-season WPA scales equally to single-season WAR, which is to say that it’s uncommon that one is price greater than three wins in a single yr, by both measure. WPA may be moreover adjusted utilizing a pitcher’s common leverage index (aLI) for a stat variably referred to as situational wins or context-neutral wins (known as WPA/LI).
Lengthy story brief, each of those are actually within the sauce. R-JAWS is the common of a reliever’s WAR (together with his time as a starter and as a hitter) in addition to his WPA and his WPA/LI. Together with these final two stats helps to raise pitchers for what they did as relievers relatively than as starters, which is what we’re after, as a result of Corridor voters typically aren’t geared towards recognizing swingmen or setup relievers. Not solely can yow will discover R-JAWS on the aforementioned Baseball Reference Reduction Pitcher JAWS Leaders web page, nevertheless it’s additionally now the default technique for sorting (you’ll be able to nonetheless kind by WAR, WAR7, and JAWS as effectively).
Wagner, who’s tied for nineteenth in old-school JAWS, ranks a decent seventh in WPA amongst relievers at 29.1 and a fair higher fifth in WPA/LI at 17.9. That places him proper within the combine with the opposite enshrined relievers in R-JAWS:
High Relievers by R-JAWS
Rk | Participant | WAR | WPA | WPA/LI | R-JAWS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mariano Rivera+ | 56.3 | 56.6 | 33.6 | 48.8 |
2 | Dennis Eckersley+ | 62.1 | 30.8 | 25.8 | 39.6 |
3 | Hoyt Wilhelm+ | 46.8 | 30.4 | 26.3 | 34.3 |
4 | Wealthy Gossage+ | 41.1 | 32.5 | 14.8 | 29.5 |
5 | Trevor Hoffman+ | 28.0 | 34.2 | 19.3 | 27.1 |
6 | Billy Wagner | 27.7 | 29.1 | 17.9 | 24.9 |
7 | Joe Nathan | 26.7 | 30.6 | 15.8 | 24.4 |
8 | Firpo Marberry | 30.6 | 25.5 | 16.8 | 24.3 |
9 | Tom Gordon | 35.0 | 21.3 | 14.5 | 23.6 |
10 | Kenley Jansen | 21.9 | 29.0 | 17.3 | 22.7 |
11 | Jonathan Papelbon | 23.3 | 28.3 | 13.4 | 21.7 |
12 | Ellis Kinder | 28.9 | 23.8 | 11.7 | 21.5 |
13 | Francisco Rodríguez | 24.2 | 24.4 | 14.7 | 21.1 |
14 | Lee Smith+ | 28.9 | 21.3 | 12.7 | 21.0 |
15 | Stu Miller | 27.0 | 20.5 | 13.5 | 20.7 |
16 | David Robertson | 21.7 | 23.9 | 14.5 | 20.0 |
17 | Craig Kimbrel | 22.3 | 22.6 | 13.9 | 19.6 |
18 | Tom Henke | 22.9 | 21.3 | 13.9 | 19.4 |
19 | Dan Quisenberry | 24.6 | 20.7 | 12.5 | 19.3 |
20 | Rollie Fingers+ | 25.6 | 16.2 | 15.1 | 19.0 |
21 | Tug McGraw | 21.8 | 21.5 | 13.1 | 18.8 |
22 | Bobby Shantz | 34.6 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 18.4 |
23 | Aroldis Chapman | 20.8 | 21.3 | 13.1 | 18.4 |
24 | John Hiller | 30.4 | 14.6 | 9.4 | 18.1 |
25 | Bruce Sutter+ | 24.1 | 18.2 | 11.9 | 18.1 |
Corridor avg w/Eckersley | 39.1 | 30.0 | 19.9 | 29.7 | |
Corridor avg w/o Eckersley | 35.8 | 29.9 | 19.1 | 28.3 |
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
R-JAWS is the common of WAR, WPA, and WPA/LI.
+ = Corridor of Famer
Previous to the election of Rivera, Wagner was simply 0.1 under the Corridor common excluding Eckersley, and whereas his standing relative to that common has slipped, he’s the highest reliever exterior the Corridor in that mixed measure. I feel that’s price loads on this context.
These leverage-based measures present a a lot stronger foundation for voting for Wagner than JAWS. That goes doubly when taken alongside his different accomplishments and overlooking his ugly 10.03 ERA in 11.2 postseason innings for groups that had been typically within the midst of being steamrolled.
On the outset of his candidacy, it was clear that Wagner confronted an uphill battle to get to Cooperstown. Overshadowed by Hoffman when the 2 debuted in 2016 and misplaced in a sea of certified candidates at different positions as effectively — 11 exceeded the JAWS customary that yr — he obtained simply 10.5% of the vote. On the time, that was a decrease debut share than any participant elected by the writers since they returned to annual balloting in 1966, however Scott Rolen, who obtained simply 10.2% in 2018 but was elected 5 years later, has since set a brand new customary for what’s doable.
Wagner roughly ran in place over his subsequent two cycles, however on the 2019 poll, as site visitors started to skinny out a bit, he climbed to 16.7%, then posted annual positive factors of 15.0%, 14.7%, 4.6%, 17.1%, and 5.7% over the past 5 cycles. Per The Athletic’s Jayson Stark, that 17.1% bounce was the biggest for any reliever, surpassing the 15.5% improve by Fingers in 1992.
Heading into the 2024 election cycle, these positive factors regarded as if they could put Wagner excessive — however may not. As I famous final yr, amongst post-1966 candidates who obtained between 65% and 70% and nonetheless had eligibility remaining, 14 of 31 had been elected the following yr, and 21 of 31 inside two years. Wagner obtained 78.3% of the votes from ballots revealed earlier than the election announcement, however simply 55.1% on unpublished ballots, and barely missed the mark.
The excellent news is that historical past remains to be on his aspect. Of the final 24 instances a candidate obtained not less than 70% however lower than 75% and nonetheless had eligibility remaining, that candidate was elected the following yr 21 instances, with the exceptions being Jim Bunning (twice) and Curt Schilling. The previous was carried out in as soon as by a barrage of clean ballots and as soon as by a crowd of stronger candidates, whereas the latter discovered more and more intricate and offensive methods to sabotage his personal candidacy as he approached 75%. Notably given the urgency created by this being the ultimate yr of his candidacy, I don’t anticipate Wagner falling brief.
Right here’s the current historical past of how candidates who obtained not less than 50% of their ninth yr of eligibility fared of their Tenth and closing yr:
Current Tenth-Yr BBWAA Candidates
Participant | ninth Yr | % | Tenth Yr | % | Acquire |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Billy Wagner | 2024 | 73.8% | 2025 | TBD | TBD |
Curt Schilling | 2021 | 71.1% | 2022 | 58.6% | -12.4% |
Edgar Martinez | 2018 | 70.4% | 2019 | 85.4% | 15.0% |
Tim Raines | 2016 | 69.8% | 2017 | 86.0% | 16.2% |
Barry Bonds | 2021 | 61.8% | 2022 | 66.0% | 4.1% |
Roger Clemens | 2021 | 61.6% | 2022 | 65.2% | 3.6% |
Gary Sheffield | 2023 | 55.0% | 2024 | 63.9% | 8.9% |
Larry Walker | 2019 | 54.6% | 2020 | 76.6% | 22.0% |
Whereas seeing that solely three of the earlier seven had been elected in yr 10 is perhaps unsettling, by that time it was clear that Bonds and Clemens weren’t going to achieve 75% on account of their hyperlinks to performance-enhancing medication, and Schilling was taking the primary scorched earth electoral marketing campaign in Corridor of Fame historical past to its deserved conclusion. Three of the opposite 4 gained entry, including a mean of 15.5%, and it’s price remembering that Sheffield was held again to some extent by his BALCO connection.
Add to that the truth that Wagner is already nearer to 75% than any of those current predecessors, and I feel we’ll be listening to his identify referred to as on January 21.
Due to the crowded area of candidates in his early years of eligibility, I didn’t embrace Wagner on my digital poll till 2019, then added him to my precise poll in ’21, and he’s been there ever since. Whereas JAWS guides my course of, I’ve remained significantly open-minded relating to its dealing with of relievers over time, in search of alternative routes to guage them, and Wagner’s dominance in so many classes is tough to disregard, as is his underdog story. He’s no Rivera, however he’s hardly misplaced in a gaggle that features Hoffman, Smith, Fingers, and Sutter. With Jansen, Chapman, and Kimbrel all struggling at factors of their mid-30s to the purpose that solely one of many three spent all of 2024 as a full-time nearer, we are able to respect how arduous it’s to keep up the extent of efficiency that Wagner did, proper as much as the tip of his profession. Perhaps 15 years from now we’ll be speaking about Emmanuel Clase on this context, however Wagner stands as the most effective reliever exterior the Corridor. To those eyes, that’s price a vote.