JAWS and the 2025 Corridor of Fame Poll: Andruw Jones

The next article is a part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing take a look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Corridor of Fame poll. It was initially written for The Cooperstown Casebook, printed in 2017 by Thomas Dunne Books, and subsequently tailored for SI.com after which FanGraphs. For an in depth introduction to this yr’s poll, and different candidates within the collection, use the software above; an introduction to JAWS might be discovered right here. For a tentative schedule and an opportunity to fill out a Corridor of Fame poll for our crowdsourcing venture, see right here. All WAR figures discuss with the Baseball-Reference model until in any other case indicated.

It occurred so rapidly. Freshly anointed the sport’s prime prospect by Baseball America within the spring of 1996, the soon-to-be-19-year-old Andruw Jones was despatched to play for the Durham Bulls, the Braves’ Excessive-A affiliate. By mid-August, he blazed by means of the Carolina League, the Double-A Southern League, and the Triple-A Worldwide League, then debuted for the defending world champions. By October 20, with simply 31 regular-season video games underneath his belt, he was a family title, having change into the youngest participant ever to homer in a World Collection sport, breaking Mickey Mantle’s report — and doing so twice at Yankee Stadium besides.

Jones was no flash within the pan. The Braves didn’t win the 1996 World Collection, and he didn’t win the ’97 NL Rookie of the 12 months award, however together with Chipper Jones (no relation) and the large three of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz, he grew to become a pillar of a franchise that received a outstanding 14 NL East titles from 1991 to 2005 (all however the 1994 strike season). From 1998 to 2007, Jones received 10 straight Gold Gloves, greater than any middle fielder besides Willie Mays.

By the top of 2006, Jones had tallied 342 homers and 1,556 hits. He appeared sure for a berth in Cooperstown, however after a subpar remaining season in Atlanta and a departure for Los Angeles in free company, he fell aside so utterly that the Dodgers purchased out his contract, a rarity in baseball. He spent the following 4 years with three completely different groups earlier than heading to Japan at age 35, and whereas he hoped for a return to the majors, he couldn’t discover a deal to his liking after both the 2014 or ’15 seasons. He retired earlier than his thirty ninth birthday, and due to his speedy descent, he barely survived his first two years on the Corridor of Fame poll, with shares of seven.3% and seven.5%. Over the previous 5 cycles, he’s jumped to 19.4%, 33.9%, 41.4%, 58.1%, and 61.6%, to a degree the place eventual election, both by the writers or a small committee, has change into not only a chance however a probability. With three years of eligibility remaining, he nonetheless has an excellent likelihood to get to 75% from the writers.

Andruw Rudolf Jones was born on April 23, 1977 in Willemstad, Curaçao, the capital metropolis of roughly 150,000 of the Dutch-Caribbean island, which lies about 35 miles north of the coast of Venezuela. His father, Henry, was a catcher for Curaçao’s nationwide staff within the Seventies, ok to play professionally — besides that the island wasn’t scouted by main league groups at the moment, and attending a significant league tryout ended a participant’s newbie standing. Henry gave Andruw his first glove at age three and his first bat at 4, and the child remained years forward of the curve at each stage. He went to Japan with a touring staff at 11, one yr earlier than Hensley Meulens change into the primary Curaçao-born main leaguer with the Yankees in 1989. At 15, Jones performed in opposition to Juvenile League groups that includes youngsters 16–18 years outdated. At a match in Puerto Rico, Braves scout Giovanni Viceisza, who had been scouring the Netherlands Antilles for Atlanta for 5 years, acknowledged Jones’ five-tool expertise and summoned longtime Braves director of scouting Paul Snyder, who suggested the staff to signal him as soon as he turned 16. They paid a $46,000 bonus.

Nonetheless shy of his seventeenth birthday, Jones struggled within the complex-based Gulf Coast League in 1994, however he fared higher upon being moved as much as the Appalachian League. His uncooked numbers on the two stops (.290/.368/.412 with three homers and 21 steals in 63 video games) have been respectable; that he held his personal in leagues the place the common participant was two or three years older was much more necessary. Simply shy of his 18th birthday, Jones ranked twenty first on Baseball America’s prime prospect record within the spring of 1995, second on the Braves behind Chipper Jones. His efficiency that yr with Macon within the South Atlantic League (.277/.372/.512 with 25 homers in 139 video games) earned him Baseball America Minor League Participant of the 12 months honors and their prime general prospect rating heading into the 1996 season. Earlier than arriving within the majors, Jones hit a mixed .339/.421/.652 with 34 homers cut up between 66 video games at Excessive-A Durham, 38 at Double-A Greenville, and 12 at Triple-A Richmond.

“Andruw was past his years, baseball maturity-wise,” Snyder instructed Baseball America in 2006. “The largest downside was that we couldn’t discover any stage that he didn’t dominate… Very seldom do you get a man like this to come back by means of so rapidly.”

The Braves owned a seven-game cushion after they recalled Jones from Richmond on August 14. They’d misplaced common proper fielder David Justice to a season-ending dislocated shoulder again in Might and wished to check {the teenager} earlier than the August 31 deadline to set their postseason roster. Jones went 1-for-5 in his debut in opposition to the Phillies on August 15, hanging out twice in opposition to Curt Schilling however gathering a ninth-inning single off Toby Borland. The subsequent night time, going through the Pirates, he homered off Denny Neagle, the primary of 5 he’d hit in 31 video games. He began 17 video games in proper discipline and 5 in middle. “Some scouts say he’s on a par with Atlanta’s Gold Glove middle fielder, Marquis Grissom,” famous Sports activities Illustrated’s Tim Kurkjian, lower than two weeks after Jones arrived.

Within the postseason, Braves supervisor Bobby Cox initially used Jones as a defensive alternative for lumbering left fielder Ryan Klesko. He didn’t begin till Recreation 3 of the NLCS in opposition to the Cardinals and didn’t acquire his first hits till Recreation 7, with a two-out RBI single within the first inning, then a two-run homer within the sixth of a 15–0 rout. Then got here his large night time within the World Collection opener, with a two-run homer off Andy Pettitte and a three-run homer off Brian Boehringer in a 12–1 trouncing. Jones hit .400/.500/.750 and began all six video games, although the Braves misplaced.

Jones repeated as BA’s Minor League Participant of the 12 months (the second participant to take action for the reason that publication’s 1981 inception) and primary prospect (the primary to take action since they started rating them in 1991). Even so, the Braves didn’t instantly hand him a full-time job. Towards the top of spring coaching, they traded Grissom and Justice to Cleveland for Kenny Lofton and dealt Jermaine Dye, who had performed 96 video games with Atlanta as a rookie in 1996, to the Royals for Michael Tucker. Klesko, Lofton, and Tucker have been the regulars, with Jones both coming off the bench within the late innings or beginning in opposition to lefties whereas Tucker sat, although he did spend six weeks in middle discipline when hamstring and groin accidents sidelined Lofton. For the yr, he performed in 153 video games however began simply 96 (55 in proper, 41 in middle), hitting a modest .231/.329/.416 with 18 homers. Nonetheless, his protection — valued at +28 runs by way of Complete Zone — turned sufficient heads that he completed fifth within the NL Rookie of the 12 months voting, effectively behind winner Scott Rolen however forward of Vladimir Guerrero.

Lofton’s return to Cleveland in free company opened middle discipline for the 21-year-old Jones, who hit .271/.321/.515 with 31 homers, 27 steals, +35 protection (!) and seven.4 WAR, tops on the staff and tied for fourth within the league, 0.1 WAR behind Mark McGwire and 0.9 forward of Sammy Sosa within the yr of the pair’s nice house run chase. His first Gold Glove kicked off his 10-year streak. Persevering with to offer excellent protection together with energy and velocity, he ranked second within the NL in WAR in each 1999 (7.1) and 2000 (a career-best 8.2), and made his first All-Star staff within the latter yr, hitting .303/.366/.541 with 36 homers and 21 steals. After being ousted within the NLCS in each 1997 and ’98, the Braves drew a rematch in opposition to the Yankees within the ’99 World Collection, however Jones may muster no magic, going 1-for-13 as Atlanta was swept.

Following that large 2000 season, Jones (and agent Scott Boras) received a report $8.2 million wage in arbitration. After a barely off 2001 (.251/.312/.461, 94 OPS+, 4.9 WAR), the 24-year-old ballhawk, who was one yr away from free company, agreed to a six-year, $75 million extension. As Boras instructed The Sporting Information’ Ken Rosenthal, “We’ve had managers and coaches say that Andruw Jones is the most effective middle fielder they’ve seen since Willie Mays. It’s a visible understanding. Andruw’s routes to balls are glorious. His first step is superb. His potential to come back in and return is superb. He can catch the ball operating at many various angles.”

Jones wasn’t resistant to off years similar to 2001 and ’04 (.261/.345/.488 with simply +8 protection and three.2 WAR), besides, his energy and glove work assured a considerable baseline of worth yearly from 1998 to 2006; he made 5 All-Star groups throughout that stretch, homering within the ’03 and ’05 video games. Adjusting to a wider stance during which his head stayed decrease and moved much less, he broke out to guide the NL in each homers (51) and RBI (128) in ’05, rating fourth with 6.7 WAR and ending a detailed second within the NL MVP voting behind Albert Pujols, then adopted that up with a 41-homer, 5.6 WAR season in ’06. Throughout these 9 years, he hit a mixed .270/.347/.513 for a 118 OPS+, averaging 35 homers, 21 fielding runs, and 6.1 WAR; he trailed solely Alex Rodriguez (7.8 WAR) and Barry Bonds (7.5 WAR) in that span.

Learn that once more: for a nine-year interval, solely A-Rod and Bonds have been extra useful than Jones. If that looks like hyperbole, take into account the extent to which the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz triumvirate prevented runs and picked up Cy Younger awards regardless of Smoltz being the trio’s solely true strikeout pitcher. These pitchers wanted defensive help, and yr in and yr out, no defender performed a much bigger half than Jones.

“Andruw was all the time shifting earlier than the ball was even hit,” mentioned Matt Kemp, briefly Jones’ teammate on the Dodgers however, earlier than that, a middle fielder he studied. “He would learn the pitch, anticipate the place the ball was going to be hit and already be shifting to that spot.”

Jones’ shallow positioning, his fast first step, and an uncanny knack for the suitable routes made for fewer spectacular dives than, say, Jim Edmonds. However these expertise translated to a defensive efficiency that was an estimated 192 runs above common throughout that nine-year span, 58 runs higher than another participant in baseball (Darin Erstad was second). Together with the whole thing of his Braves’ run, which by the top had seen Maddux and Glavine each depart, Jones was 239 runs above common within the discipline, miles forward of the second- and third-ranked Braves, outfielder Brian Jordan (56) and shortstop Rafael Furcal (52).

Be aware that I’ve lower the 2007 season from the consideration of Jones’ heyday. After clouting 92 homers in 2005–06, his remaining yr earlier than free company was a disappointment, as he hit simply .222/.311/.413 for an 87 OPS+, with 26 homers. Although nonetheless 19 runs above common afield, his 3.0 WAR was decrease than even his official rookie season. He was removed from full well being, battling soreness in each knees in addition to a hyperextended left elbow suffered on Might 27, however he refused to lean on these as explanations. “I’m not going to make excuses concerning the accidents that I had,” Jones mentioned that September. “I simply didn’t play on a excessive stage.”

Jones left the Braves after 2007, his age-30 season, and signed a two-year, $36.2 million cope with the Dodgers, whose normal supervisor, Ned Colletti, cited the elbow harm as a proof for the outfielder’s struggles. Boras instructed the media that Jones had reviewed video suggesting his stance was too vast by 4 inches, costing him steadiness.

The cope with the Dodgers started unraveling when Jones confirmed as much as camp off form, chubby by 15–25 kilos in response to numerous reviews. His batting common slipped beneath .200 within the season’s fifth sport and stayed there. In late Might, he went on what was then the disabled record for the primary time in his profession, shedding six weeks to surgical procedure to restore a torn meniscus and take away a cyst in his proper knee, the all-important again knee in his batting stance, which lessened his potential to drive the ball. Irritation and tendinitis additional restricted him to only one sport after August 9, sandwiched round two extra DL stints. Together with his strikeout charge spiking from 21% in 2007 to 31% in that abysmal marketing campaign, he completed at .158/.256/.249 with simply three house runs and an astounding -1.6 WAR in 75 video games.

Worse than Jones’ efficiency was the notion that he didn’t care, not that his displaying up off form may have created another impression. Caustic Los Angeles Occasions columnist T.J. Simers known as him “the Tubbo” in print on a number of events. In one column, Jones continued to reply variants of “I don’t care” in response to a barrage of unflattering questions, together with whether or not he was bothered by the boos from Dodgers followers. “Don’t you care that the followers in Dodger Stadium have turned on you?” Simers requested.

“No,” Jones replied. “That’s their downside… You play for the staff, you don’t play for the followers. The followers by no means performed the sport. They don’t know.”

Such feedback solely exacerbated the scenario, however the disappointment of Jones’ downward spiral was overshadowed by the mania surrounding the July 31 acquisition of Manny Ramirez, who powered the Dodgers to the NL West flag and all the way in which to the NLCS earlier than the staff fell to the Phillies. Unable to search out any takers for Jones in commerce, the Dodgers negotiated a uncommon contract buyout, releasing him and spreading the remaining $22.1 million on his deal over six years; they put a few of the financial savings towards retaining Ramirez. Quickly afterwards, the Rangers signed Jones to a minimum-salary deal on the idea of a January 26 exercise; he was mentioned to have misplaced 25 kilos. Partially-time obligation, primarily in opposition to lefties, he hit .214/.323/.459 (100 OPS+) with 17 homers in 82 video games, although he battled hamstring woes.

Jones spent three extra seasons within the majors tacking an analogous course as a part-timer, one with the White Sox after which two with the Yankees. He hit 19 homers with a 120 OPS+ and was price 1.9 WAR in 2010, his yr in Chicago, although his efficiency with the bat was truly higher in his first yr in New York (.247/.356/.495, 126 OPS+ with 13 homers in 222 PA). However for as potent as he was, his contributions have been restricted by ache in his left knee that finally required offseason surgical procedure. In December 2012, following a disappointing second season in pinstripes, he signed a one-year, $3.5 million cope with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Japanese Pacific League. Lower than two weeks later, on Christmas Day, he was arrested in reference to a home dispute. In line with the police report, after consuming a number of drinks, he allegedly assaulted his spouse, Nicole, placing his fingers round her neck and threatening to kill her. He was charged with battery, and per week later, she filed for divorce. In a tragic irony, the Washington Publish article reporting his arrest famous that the Joneses had been main supporters of Jaden’s Ladder, a gaggle that helps victims of home violence.

The couple tried to reconcile (although they divorced in 2015). Jones pled responsible, paid a wonderful, and obtained probation that allowed him to go away the nation to proceed his profession. In Japan, he hit a mixed .232/.392/.441 with 50 homers in 2013 and ’14. He explored a return to the majors in early 2015, however reviews of curiosity from a number of groups failed to supply a assured contract. In early 2016, he formally retired.

…

From a conventional standpoint, Jones’ greatest impediment to election isn’t his abrupt decline and departure from the majors itself — extra on that beneath — however its influence on his profession hit complete, since he fell 67 in need of 2,000. Till the election of Tony Oliva by the Golden Days Period Committee on their 2022 poll, BBWAA and committee voters rejected each post-1960 growth candidate who fell in need of that mark, some very swiftly and others a lot much less so. Edmonds, Bobby Grich, Robin Ventura, and Jimmy Wynn went one-and-done on the BBWAA poll and by no means received one other shot from the Veterans Committee. Dick Allen by no means received 50% of the vote from the writers and has fallen one vote quick in three straight Period Committee poll appearances. Minnie Miñoso, who was elected alongside Oliva whereas Allen fell quick, solely surpassed 2,000 hits after Main League Baseball’s 2020 determination to acknowledge seven Negro Leagues from the 1920–48 interval as main leagues. Now that the ice has been damaged, Jones could have extra of an opportunity.

He’s received a number of issues working in opposition to him past simply the hit complete, together with his lifetime .254 batting common. Solely three Corridor of Fame place gamers are beneath .260: shortstop Rabbit Maranville (.258), first baseman Harmon Killebrew (.256), and catcher Ray Schalk (.253). Maranville and Schalk performed key defensive positions and had robust defensive reputations that predate the Gold Glove period however are at the very least partially upheld by the metrics, although the previous ranks useless final in JAWS amongst enshrined shortstops, and the latter second-to-last amongst enshrined catchers. Killebrew punched his ticket to Cooperstown with 573 house runs (to not point out a 143 OPS+) however ranks simply fifteenth in JAWS among the many 25 enshrined non-Negro Leagues first basemen, beneath the requirements in all three classes resulting from his subpar protection. Jones has stronger defensive metrics in his favor than any of that trio, and at a key place besides, to not point out 434 homers, however the paucity of Corridor of Famers within the .250s doesn’t bode effectively.

What’s extra, although his ample energy and endurance boosted the influence of that low batting common, Jones hails from a high-offense period. His 111 OPS+, from a .254/.337/.486 line, is decrease than 16 of the 19 enshrined middle fielders, matching that of Richie Ashburn and forward of solely Max Carey (108) and Lloyd Waner (99). It’s decrease than 56 of the 79 enshrined up-the-middle gamers (catchers, second basemen, shortstops, and middle fielders). Even the ten Gold Gloves aren’t as large a assist as one would count on. Whereas all 5 non-pitchers with at the very least 12 Gold Gloves are in (Mays, Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith, Ivan Rodriguez, and Roberto Clemente) and likewise for the 5 eligible 10-time winners moreover Jones (Roberto Alomar, Johnny Bench, Ken Griffey Jr., Al Kaline, and Mike Schmidt), the 2 11-time winners (Keith Hernandez and Omar Vizquel) aren’t. The previous fell off the poll with out ever reaching 11.0%; the latter, who obtained 52.6% of the vote in his third yr of eligibility, is nineteen.3 factors beneath the JAWS normal and trending downwards resulting from allegations of each home violence and sexual harassment.

As a member of the Braves dynasty, Jones noticed loads of postseason motion. His .273/.363/.433 line with 10 homers in 279 PA just isn’t a very robust displaying, nonetheless, and it doesn’t assist that the Braves went 2–8 in collection during which he posted an OPS of .575 or above.

Jones’ Corridor of Fame Monitor rating of 109, which acknowledges his large house run seasons and reaching the 400 plateau, his common play at a key defensive place on playoff-bound groups, the Gold Gloves and so forth, leaves him someplace between “a superb chance” at 100 and “a digital cinch” at 130. Amongst his contemporaries, gamers similar to Jimmy Rollins (121), Magglio Ordonez (114), Nomar Garciaparra and Michael Younger (each 112), Matt Holliday (111), Carlos Delgado (110), Edgar Renteria (109), and Jason Giambi (108) present that the space between these two ranges is the place Corridor of Fame desires go to die.

Jones’ candidacy does have factors in its favor on either side of the ball. First, the homers: solely 33 of the 53 gamers with at the very least 425 homers are enshrined, however 4 others have been both energetic in 2024 or not but eligible for election. Ten others have been linked to performance-enhancing medicine. Of the remaining six — Jones, Delgado, Carlos Beltrán, Adam Dunn, Dave Kingman, and Paul Konerko — Beltrán is the one different one moreover Jones who performed a key defensive place. In truth, solely 4 up-the-middle gamers — Mays, Griffey, Mantle, and Beltrán — prime Jones’ 434 homers, the final by precisely one. In the meantime, Jones’ complete of 235 fielding runs not solely leads all middle fielders but in addition all outfielders, 50 runs forward of second-ranked Mays.

It’s truthful to be skeptical concerning the precision of Baseball Reference’s estimate for fielding worth, which for Jones combines Complete Zone fielding runs (1996–2002) with the extra acquainted Defensive Runs Saved. In the course of the 2019 election cycle, in a roundup of assorted unfastened ends pertaining to a number of candidates, I printed some information and elements of an e-mail supplied by Chris Dial, the inventor of RED (Runs Successfully Defended), a forerunner to different batted ball data-based metrics similar to DRS and UZR. Whereas RED just isn’t presently printed anyplace, it’s included among the many alphabet soup of metrics within the SABR Defensive Index, which has accounted for 25% of the Gold Gloves voting in non-pandemic seasons since 2013; in ’20, the SDI was used for the whole thing of the Gold Gloves choices as a result of the geographically restricted schedule prevented voters from seeing greater than a 3rd of the league.

“By each metric obtainable within the late Nineties — Baseball Reference’s Complete Zone, Michael Humphries’ DRA, and RED, which is predicated on STATS Zone Score batted ball information — Andruw’s protection was excellent,” Dial wrote. In his evaluation, Jones got here again to the pack within the early 2000s and fell beneath common defensively from 2003 onward, roughly. Right here’s his desk evaluating the assorted metrics:

The place the weighted SDI helps Jones’ declare on 10 Gold Gloves, Dial’s RED-driven view suggests he ought to have received solely three (1997, ’98, ’99). In line with Dial, the opposite metrics, each earlier than the arrival of batted ball information and after, aren’t delicate to the way in which Jones’ fielding numbers are propped up by discretionary performs, routine ones the place a couple of participant may have caught the ball. “Jones simply took all of the discretionary performs from the left fielder and continued to take action after he had misplaced his vary. That’s not expertise, it’s Kelly Leak,” Dial wrote, referring to the ball-hogging star of the Dangerous Information Bears. UZR and DRS “weight performs made by share for a place — when Andruw takes a discretionary play, he will get an excessive amount of further credit score in these methods. Every little thing else tells us Andruw misplaced a step or three. His zone scores (share of balls caught), his further weight, his velocity scores, his vary elements. How the opposite metrics miss this, I can’t say,” he added.

Dial moreover equipped information relating to the possibilities of the Braves’ left fielders, stating that it was the much less adept Klesko and Chipper Jones who have been enjoying left discipline throughout Andruw’s peak defensive years (1997–2003). It’s a compelling various view, however with out the flexibility to check Jones on that foundation in opposition to his cohorts and traditionally, it’s powerful to determine the right way to weigh that info. Is Complete Zone failing to appropriate for discretionary performs by Willie, Mickey, and the Duke as effectively? And likewise for DRS in the case of Jones’ contemporaries? I don’t have that reply, however I do assume it’s noteworthy that the combination SDI nonetheless helps some measure of Jones’ prowess.

Again to the WAR-based numbers: the strongest level in Jones’ favor is his 46.4 peak WAR, which ranks ninth on the place, 1.7 wins above the usual, 2.0 above Beltrán, and second amongst these outdoors the Corridor moreover Mike Trout (65.1, already third all-time!). Due partly to his early retirement, Jones’ 62.7 profession WAR is “solely” 14th, beneath 10 of the 19 enshrined middle fielders and 9.0 wins beneath the usual. His 54.6 JAWS is 3.6 factors beneath the usual however nonetheless good for Eleventh all-time, behind seven enshrinees plus Beltrán (57.2) and Lofton (55.9), who went one-and-done on the 2013 poll and was bypassed for the 2023 Modern Baseball Period Committee poll.

With reference to Jones’ fade, his 58.0 WAR by means of his age-29 season ranks twenty fifth amongst place gamers; his 342 homers are tied for seventh with Mel Ott and Henry Aaron, and his 1,556 hits rank fortieth. Take away the Corridor of Famers and people not but eligible from the equation, and Jones’ house run complete by means of age 29 is second solely to A-Rod (Bonds is tenth at 259), together with his WAR rating third:

That’s fairly a listing. A few of these gamers acquitted themselves fairly effectively after 30; others flamed out in spectacular vogue. Jones’ drop-off — a spot of 53.3 WAR between the 2 segments of his profession — is the steepest of the bunch. He’s nonetheless among the many seven who exceed the height normal at their positions, however not among the many 4 who exceed the JAWS normal.

Between the poll logjam, the sub-2,000 hit complete, the apportioning of a lot credit score for the Braves dynasty by way of the elections of Chipper Jones and the three pitchers, and the abrupt fadeout of his profession, I anticipated Jones to fare poorly in his 2018 poll debut. Voters are likely to undervalue protection (as was the case for one-and-done candidates Bell and Grich, to not point out Rolen and 2020 honoree Larry Walker), and past the numbers, recollections of each his ugly Dodgers tenure and the home violence incident linger. Even overlooking the non-statistical elements of his case, a voter might need simply concluded that he was the Eleventh-best candidate in a format that solely permits 10 votes. With the poll equally packed, I left him off my digital poll for 2019, although I restored him in ’20 and have included him on my first 4 precise ballots. He’s on observe to be included once more.

In contrast to current middle fielders similar to Lofton (tenth in JAWS however simply 3.2% in 2013) and Edmonds (fifteenth in JAWS, 2.5% in 2016), Jones survived previous the primary yr on the poll, and these days he’s been helped by the visitors scaling down. Going strictly by JAWS, irrespective of any PED allegations, 10 candidates have been at or above the requirements at their respective positions when he debuted in 2018, and 13 had a JAWS of at the very least 50.0, in “shut sufficient” territory for some votes. These respective totals have fallen most of the time within the seven cycles since:

The electoral historical past for candidates in Jones’ place provides much less enlightenment than typical. Final yr, I reported that of the 12 post-1966 candidates not on the poll who obtained sixth-year shares inside eight factors of Jones’ 58.1%, 9 have been finally elected (together with Gil Hodges, by the 2022 Basic Baseball Period Committee). Simply eight candidates have been inside seven factors of Jones’ 61.6% of their seventh yr on the poll, 5 of whom are actually within the Corridor. The exceptions in each circumstances are the self-sabotaging Schilling and the PED-linked Bonds and Roger Clemens. The 5 enshrinees all date to the interval when candidates had 15 years on the poll as an alternative of 10; every of the three with greater shares than Jones (Tony Perez, Andre Dawson, and Wealthy Gossage) was elected two years later, whereas Don Drysdale (60.6%) wanted three years, and Jim Rice (57.9%) wanted eight. Amongst candidates with simply 10 years of eligibility, the closest sixth-year share to Jones is Billy Wagner with 51%. He obtained 73.7% in yr 9 (2024) and seems extremely more likely to acquire entry this yr. Jones is forward of that tempo, however his 3.5% acquire from 2023 to ’24 is a reminder that nothing is automated, and I do know of at the very least a number of voters who view his home violence arrest and responsible plea as disqualifying.

Right here it’s price a reminder that this poll additionally features a pair of candidates with DV allegations, particularly Ramirez and Vizquel. Between the previous’s PED suspensions and the latter’s sexual harassment allegations (settled out of courtroom), each have given voters a number of causes to not vote for them that transcend their statistical circumstances, and that make a direct comparability to Jones’ scenario much less instructive.

Within the steadiness, Jones stays in fairly fine condition in the case of the Corridor. Given his {hardware} and defensive metrics compiled whereas enjoying an up-the-middle place on a perennial playoff participant, he already had a good elevator pitch, to not point out a peak rating above the middle discipline normal and a JAWS among the many place’s prime dozen. Whereas there are precedents for candidates leaping at the very least 14.4% to cross the 75% threshold, these conditions are often spurred by urgency (Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, and Walker had even larger beneficial properties of their tenth and remaining yr of eligibility). Thus I don’t count on Jones to make such a leap this yr, notably with Wagner and first-year candidates Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia higher positioned for election, however I do assume we’ll see him in Cooperstown quickly.