Jake McCarthy Fights the BABIP Monster

What a wild journey it’s been for Jake McCarthy the previous three seasons. In 2022, he completed fourth in NL Rookie of the 12 months voting, seemingly the fitting fielder of the longer term for the Arizona Diamondbacks. It wasn’t the type of efficiency that may make anybody assume that he — and never Corbin Carroll — was Arizona’s franchise participant. Nevertheless it was the type of efficiency that would tempt inveterate contrarians into saying, “You recognize, Carroll will get all the eye, however McCarthy is the one who actually makes this workforce tick.”

Then, in 2023, McCarthy was whole buttcrack. He barely saved his head above alternative stage as he misplaced enjoying time to Alek Thomas, Pavin Smith, Tommy Pham, and a partridge in a pear tree. Then, as a result of when it rains it pours — even within the desert — McCarthy suffered an indirect damage that saved him from enjoying any half within the Diamondbacks’ run to the World Collection.

However in 2024, he’s reclaimed his rightful place within the lineup, and he’s hitting .303/.375/.451. With nearly two months left within the common season, he’s set new profession highs in video games performed and WAR. All is effectively as soon as once more.

Or, as an alternative of studying these three paragraphs, you may simply learn this desk and intuit the narrative by yourself:

Say, what’s that column all the way in which over on the fitting with the numbers highlighted? Oh no, we’re going to speak about BABIP.

Nicely, first we’re going to speak about Austin Jackson. In December 2009, the Detroit Tigers took half in a three-way commerce with the Diamondbacks and Yankees that despatched star outfielder Curtis Granderson to the Yankees. It appeared like a drag on the time. Granderson was one of many Tigers’ finest gamers, and such a pleasant man he was actually exhausting to hate, even in Yankee pinstripes.

However though Granderson posted two 40-homer seasons in his first three years in New York, the Tigers didn’t must mope for lengthy. Jackson, the prized Yankee outfield prospect, took over in middle area and instantly become We Have Curtis Granderson at House: .293/.345/.400 with 27 stolen bases for a no-sweat 4.1 WAR season that arguably ought to have received Jackson AL Rookie of the 12 months.

(The Tigers additionally acquired a younger pitcher named Max Scherzer on this commerce, which I think about helped clean issues over with anybody who nonetheless missed Granderson.)

What we didn’t respect on the time was Jackson’s .396 BABIP, which is the ninth-highest single-season mark in historical past for a professional hitter in a 162-game season. It’s not like Jackson went straight right into a tailspin after that — he was additionally superb in each 2012 and 2013 — however he didn’t fairly become the following Granderson in any case.

And it’s not like we didn’t know this on the time. Right here’s an article from August 2010 on FanGraphs dot com by Wisconsin baseball legend Jack Moore, inspecting how a lot of Jackson’s stratospheric BABIP was legit and the way a lot appeared like luck.

Estimating these inputs — luck versus ability — makes an enormous distinction whenever you’re speaking about BABIP. A 50-point swing in BABIP is a distinction of 11 or 12 hits within the variety of at-bats McCarthy has had in every of the previous two seasons. That’s about 40 factors’ value of precise batting common, or the distinction between McCarthy being commerce fodder and a borderline All-Star.

Let’s begin by inspecting whether or not McCarthy has made beneficial properties outdoors of balls which are recorded by BABIP. In different phrases, how productive is he on residence runs, strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and numerous interferences. What’s the other of batting common on balls in play? Batting common on balls out of play. I desperately needed to name this little part “BABOOP,” however that’s not completely correct, as a result of most of those occasions aren’t batted balls, and I’m measuring greater than batting common, and… you realize what, to heck with it:

McCarthy is definitely strolling barely lower than he did final season, however he’s additionally chasing much less, lacking much less, and placing out much less. And that needs to be an intentional adjustment: Final 12 months, McCarthy swung on the first pitch 38.5% of the time. This 12 months, he’s swinging on the first pitch simply 31.0% of the time. And he appears to be making higher contact:

In the event you take a look at McCarthy’s xBA, it does appear like he was fortunate in 2022 however really good this season. Which brings up an vital level that’s peculiar to McCarthy.

Keep in mind that xBA solely elements in a batted ball’s launch angle and exit velocity, however not horizontal placement. And it additionally doesn’t consider that should you had been to construct a hitter in a lab with the article of getting a excessive BABIP, the product would look so much like McCarthy. (I don’t know why you would, however hey, it’s not my lab.) McCarthy is a left-handed groundball hitter (48.4% profession groundball fee), and in addition one of many quickest gamers within the league (97th-percentile dash pace). He’s additionally not possible to shift; out of 209 gamers with not less than 300 PA this season, McCarthy has the 169th-highest pull fee. And that spray tendency solely will get extra excessive should you slender the pattern to grounders: McCarthy is 191st in pull fee among the many 222 gamers who’ve hit 80 or extra grounders this season.

And whereas McCarthy is certainly hitting the ball within the air extra — his GB/FB ratio is 1.32, up from 1.86 in 2023 — that’s solely in relative phrases. He’s nonetheless comfortably within the prime half of the league for groundball fee. He additionally isn’t hitting it significantly exhausting; McCarthy is in simply the fifth percentile for EV50 and the second percentile for hard-hit fee. On line drives, the shortage of exhausting contact is particularly pronounced. McCarthy’s BA-xBA on liners is .099, which is Seventeenth-highest out of the 357 batters who’ve put 100 or extra balls in play this 12 months. McCarthy’s hard-hit fee on line drives is simply 38.6, which is Twenty ninth-lowest amongst that very same group.

However simply getting the ball in play is half the battle, I assume. If there’s one factor McCarthy is definitely distinctive at as a hitter, it’s making contact, significantly towards fastballs. McCarthy is considered one of simply 26 gamers who’s seen 150 or extra four-seamers this season and has a whiff fee of lower than 10%, and his efficiency towards fastballs has been a serious driver of each his droop in 2023 and his rebound this 12 months.

McCarthy is among the many league leaders in batting common and speak to fee, however on the different finish of the leaderboard in pull fee and bat pace. And having stared at a bunch of these leaderboards, two sorts of hitters share McCarthy’s traits. First, there are absolutely the top-end bat management guys: Steven Kwan, Mookie Betts, Luis Arraez. The post-integration BABIP leaderboard places Rod Carew, Ichiro Suzuki, and Wade Boggs within the prime 10, and two Derek Jeter season within the prime 25.

The opposite type of participant who hangs round this finish of the leaderboard is much less flattering: It’s singles hitters whose bat pace has fully gone. Which illustrates how perilous the tightrope is for a hitter like McCarthy, who doesn’t have 80-grade cat-with-Jedi-training hand-eye coordination like Ichiro or Betts. When all the things goes proper, he will be among the finest on-base guys within the league. However all the things has to go proper.