Wednesday, December 25, 2024

Issues Francisco Lindor Has By no means Carried out

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports activities

If you understand a Mets fan, you’re most likely acquainted with the speech. The speech begins like this: “Francisco Lindor is probably the most underrated participant in baseball.” The pronunciation is actually necessary right here. You need to pronounce the in order that it rhymes with he, and you need to put a giant lengthy pause between underneath and rated. These are the foundations. From that start line, the speech usually continues for someplace between 30 seconds and 6 hours, bearing on offense, protection, MLB Community rankings, and at the very least two variations of WAR. I’ve by no means been all that positive whether or not the speech was essentially true. Lindor’s greatness has at all times struck me as not possible to disregard. As one of many sport’s premier defenders, in line with each the superior metrics and the attention take a look at, he’s at all times on the spotlight reels. He’s acquired MVP votes in six completely different seasons and gained two Gold Gloves, one Platinum Glove, and three Silver Sluggers. He’s simply 30 years outdated, and he’s already received the Twenty fifth-best JAWS rating amongst all shortstops. He’s nonetheless including to his seven-year peak, too. After I began writing this text yesterday, he ranked twenty sixth.

However perhaps I’m a part of the issue. Perhaps whereas I’ve been taking it with no consideration that everybody is aware of about Lindor’s greatness, different individuals have truly been taking Lindor’s greatness with no consideration. That may be uncool. As such, that is your annual reminder of simply how nice Francisco Lindor is. As a result of we’ve carried out this earlier than, we’ll take a unique tack and give attention to issues Lindor hasn’t carried out.

Be an Common Hitter

Lindor is now in his tenth massive league season, and he’s by no means as soon as put up a wRC+ beneath 101. We’ve seen Lindor have a down yr on the plate, however even at his worst, he’s nonetheless been an above-average hitter. He graced the pages of FanGraphs for the primary time in 2012 in an article with a title that match completely with the auspiciousness of the second: Midwest League Prospect Replace. In it, Mike Newman referred to as Lindor “A gold glove shortstop within the making,” but in addition wrote, “Lindor could wind up being a bit BABIP dependent.” Because it seems, even in 2021, when Lindor’s BABIP fell all the way in which to .248, seventh lowest amongst all certified gamers, he managed to be an above-average hitter. I don’t convey that as much as rag on Mike. If you happen to keep in mind the start of Lindor’s profession, you understand that though he hit all through the minors, the hype round his glove was understandably louder. However the consistency is exceptional, particularly from a switch-hitter. His profession wRC+ is 126 from the appropriate aspect and 115 from the left aspect. He’s solely put up a below-average wRC+ from both aspect of the plate twice: He had a 94 wRC+ from the appropriate aspect in 2016, and a 96 mark in ’21. Based on our database, there have been 549 main shortstops who made at the very least a thousand plate appearances within the AL and NL since 1903. Lindor’s profession 119 wRC+ ranks nineteenth.

This season, Lindor’s 125 wRC+ places him on tempo for his fifth profession season above 120.

Hit Fewer Than 12 House Runs

Okay, Lindor solely had eight residence runs throughout the brief 2020 season, however we’re going to let that slide. Lindor hit 12 homers as a 21-year-old rookie in 2015 after which he hit 15 in ’16. Since then, he’s hit at the very least 20 homers in each season the place the followers have been product of flesh, blood, and different gross stuff relatively than cardboard. When the baseballs received juicy towards the tip of the final decade, he put up three straight 30-homer seasons, together with a 38-dinger bonanza in 2018, and he hasn’t fallen off that a lot for the reason that nice de-unjuicing. His 237 profession residence runs rank tenth all-time amongst shortstops. If we restrict ourselves to residence runs hit whereas truly taking part in shortstop, he strikes as much as sixth place, and he has a small however respectable shot to interrupt Cal Ripken Jr.’s report of 345.

House Runs as a Shortstop

SOURCE: Stathead

* Because of incomplete information, Banks’ whole could be barely undercounted.

These 237 homers additionally rank twenty third all-time amongst switch-hitters, and Lindor ought to crack the highest 15 early subsequent season. Even when we management for the period, his profession slugging proportion of .472 works out to a 113 SLG+, placing him twentieth all-time amongst AL/NL shortstops.

This season, Lindor has hit 22 residence runs, tied for nineteenth within the majors. ZiPS tasks him to succeed in 30 for the fifth time in his profession. If he does, he’ll develop into simply the third shortstop ever to have at the very least 5 30-homer seasons. The present membership contains Alex Rodriguez with seven seasons and Ernie Banks with 5.

Miss 40 Video games

Beginning in 2015, Lindor ranks within the prime 10 in video games performed, plate appearances, defensive innings performed, hits, runs, and stolen bases. He led the AL in plate appearances 3 times (and is at present main the NL). He made his massive league debut on June 14, 2015, and performed in 99 of Cleveland’s 100 video games from that time on. Over the subsequent three seasons, he missed simply 10 extra video games. Since an belly pressure restricted Lindor to 125 video games in 2021, he has missed a mere three video games.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, the participant pages have a enjoyable damage tracker field. (To be clear, the damage tracker field is enjoyable; it’s not a field that solely tracks enjoyable accidents.) As a result of the field is small, you virtually at all times should scroll throughout it to see all of a participant’s accidents. However not on Lindor’s web page. He’s been taking part in within the massive leagues for 10 years and his field options accidents going all the way in which again to Double-A, however they’re nonetheless not sufficient to overflow the tiny field. No scrolling required! I’m unsure I’ve ever seen that earlier than. As a under no circumstances enjoyable comparability, Mike Trout’s field solely goes again to 2022 earlier than you need to begin scrolling.

To date this season, Lindor has began 113 of the Mets’ 114 video games. On Could 2, the day of his lone non-start, he entered as a pinch-hitter within the backside of the sixth and went 2-for-3 with 4 RBI, together with a walk-off double within the eleventh inning. Until he misses 4 video games down the stretch run, he’s set to develop into the thirty first participant ever to place up six seasons of at the very least 158 video games performed.

Win an MVP Award

I feel it will be onerous to argue that Lindor has deserved an MVP. Even in 2018, his 7.8 WAR ranked fourth within the AL, dwarfed by the ten.2 Mookie Betts put up. (Lindor positioned sixth that yr.) Lindor has acquired MVP votes in six seasons, however completed as excessive as fifth as soon as. He’s has been developing his Corridor of Fame case by piling up nice seasons yr after yr, however I don’t suppose it’s a slight to say that he’s by no means put collectively the one towering, simple marketing campaign that’s often required to snag an MVP.

I’m bringing it up as a result of he’s received an actual probability this season. Lindor is at present tied with Ketel Marte for third within the Nationwide League with 5.2 WAR. They path Elly De La Cruz and Shohei Ohtani by a measly half a win. There’s an even bigger hole in line with Baseball Reference WAR, with Lindor at 4.6 and Marte and Ohtani at 5.9, however that’s nonetheless a detailed race, and the winner is sort of actually going to be whichever a kind of 4 gamers can discover one other gear over the stretch run. As the most effective gamers within the league for a full decade now, and with an opportunity to pull the Mets right into a Wild Card berth, Lindor may also have a case that appeals to voters who admire a great narrative. This may very well be his probability.

Make the All-Star Workforce This Decade

Yeah, that one shocked me too. There have been solely 4 All-Star Video games within the final 5 years, however it’s nonetheless fairly surprising. Lindor began his profession by ending second within the AL Rookie of the 12 months voting, then went 4 years in a row with a top-15 end within the MVP voting, both a Gold Glove or a Silver Slugger, and an All-Star choice. After which after that, he’s gotten a pleasant, lengthy trip each July.

During the last 4 seasons, right here’s the place he’s ranked amongst NL shortstops going into the All-Star break.

Lindor within the First Half

12 months WAR SS Rank All-Star Choice
2021 2.5 4(T) No
2022 3.3 3 No
2023 2.9 1(T) Nonetheless No
2024 4.2 2 Significantly?

Over the primary 5 years of his profession, he averaged 6.5 WAR per 162 video games. Over the previous 5, he’s averaged 6.0 and completed prime 10 within the MVP voting twice, so it’s not like he’s fallen off onerous. This decade, he has 22.9 WAR, the seventh most in baseball. He’s missed out on 4 All-Star picks, whereas the six gamers forward of him have mixed to overlook out on two. Perhaps he’s just a bit bit underrated in any case.

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