Is now the second to make a transfer for Jimmy Butler?

This thought experiment explores the hypothetical state of affairs of a Jimmy Butler commerce, analyzing its potential on-court advantages, monetary ramifications, and what it might sign for the Celtics’ future decision-making.

Jimmy Butler to the Celtics might have occurred earlier than — twice, really.

First, again at his draft in 2011, then President of Basketball Operations Danny Ainge was near choosing him however ended up with JaJuan Johnson after a commerce with the Nets. A number of years later, Ainge might have traded for Jimmy Butler utilizing the draft picks that became Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. And but, Jimmy Butler to the Celtics by no means occurred… up to now.

As you might need heard, Jimmy Butler has reportedly requested to be traded out of Miami, searching for a spot to compete for a title. And what higher place for that than the Boston Celtics? From his perspective, this would possibly appear like the proper alternative.

You may be questioning—how and extra importantly why might the Celtics commerce for Butler, and whether or not it is smart to take of venture on the 35-year-old ahead. Nicely, stroll with me into this parallel universe (that might be a not too far actuality).

Photograph by Maddie Meyer/Getty Photos

The how

The Celtics are within the second apron, so they can not ship a number of gamers in a commerce to match salaries and tackle extra wage past what’s already on their books. This may probably imply an easy swap between Jaylen Brown and Jimmy Butler, doubtlessly with draft picks concerned, probably going from the Warmth to the Celtics. As we converse, the Warmth have solely two picks to ship (2030 and 2031 first spherical) however they may transfer issues round to construct a greater provide.

Why it’d make sense on the courtroom

What are the Celtics scuffling with this season?

• Producing free throws (twenty first within the league)
• Attending to the rim (twenty eighth within the league)
• Forcing turnovers (twenty third within the league)
• Creating transition alternatives (twenty fifth within the league)

What’s Jimmy Butler good at? Nicely, the entire above.

Offensively, he’s arduous to cease from attending to the rim. This yr, half of his shot makes an attempt have come on the rim, the place he converts at a 70% price—regardless of Miami’s common spacing. Think about the injury Butler might do with the elite spacing offered by the Celtics.

He’s additionally an absolute menace relating to drawing fouls. He generates capturing fouls on 23% of his makes an attempt—higher than Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo. This alone might increase the Celtics’ offense considerably when their exterior pictures aren’t falling. For context, Butler averages 1.31 factors per shot try, in comparison with 1.10 for Jaylen Brown.

Defensively, the Celtics have struggled to create turnovers and transition alternatives. Jimmy Butler’s elite anticipation and talent to disrupt passing lanes can be a major increase. Traditionally, he has excelled at pressuring ball handlers and forcing steals.

In transition, whereas the Celtics would miss Jaylen Brown’s ending capacity, Butler’s playmaking would compensate. Mathematically, based mostly on on-court influence, Butler might assist rework most of the Celtics’ present weaknesses into strengths.

Nevertheless, the Celtics can be lacking Jaylen Brown point-of-attack protection. This commerce would enhance the off-ball protection and will result in extra transition, however the Celtics can be out of their go-to-guy to cease the opponents famous person. Would Jimmy Butler be capable to decelerate Luka Doncic as a lot as Jaylen Brown did over the past NBA Finals? I doubt it.

Nevertheless, Jrue Vacation or Jayson Tatum might take over the famous person task, whereas Jimmy Butler would stay off-ball, prepared to leap on passes.

As for considerations about match, Butler has a smaller utilization price than Brown, and his driving and post-up recreation would thrive inside the Celtics’ spacing. He wouldn’t clog their offense or disrupt the movement.

And let’s not overlook Jaylen Brown’s remark that the Celtics “hunt seals” on offense. Jimmy Butler is an elite hunter.

Why it’d make monetary sense

The Celtics’ monetary state of affairs is complicated. They’re within the second apron and are projected to stay there subsequent season. Past the standard penalties, staying within the second apron for 3 years inside a five-year span has important penalties: “if groups stay within the second apron for any three years in a five-year interval, their upcoming first-round draft choose is mechanically moved to the top of the primary spherical.”

The Celtics at present have 5 gamers incomes over $30 million yearly for the subsequent two years. Transferring Jrue Vacation’s contract can be tough, Derrick White’s deal is simply too useful to commerce, and Kristaps Porziņģis gives essential spacing and rim safety—plus his current harm diminishes his commerce worth. Sooner or later, the Celtics could face a alternative between their two franchise stars.

Buying and selling for Jimmy Butler might be an early (and probably untimely) method out. Whereas Butler’s participant possibility looms, his expiring contract might present the Celtics with monetary flexibility within the close to future—all whereas preserving them in rivalry.

Nevertheless, what is going to occur to Jimmy Butler’s subsequent contract? Will he need out of the Celtics? Will he ask an excessive amount of — making it unattainable for the Celtics to maintain him joyful? Jimmy Butler is already 35 years outdated, his greatest years are up to now, whereas Jaylen Brown peak is but to come back.

Will this gamble of Jimmy Butler deliver the Celtics extra finance flexibility — or will they be caught in a extra problematic state of affairs, with a participant that lately appeared unattainable to maintain joyful.

What concerning the intangibles?

Neglect the courtroom and the finance for a second… how would the Celtics gamers and training workers react to akin to tsunamis within the locker room? The Celtics present success has been construct round Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum — would this even work with one of many Jay’s out?

On prime of Jaylen’s departure, would the Celtics be capable to combine Jimmy Butler after such a monumental transfer? Jimmy has been an enemy for the final years. How might the Celtics entrance workplace commerce for him in opposition to one in every of their brothers?

There are clear doubts that Jimmy Butler would match effectively with a gaggle that simply noticed its Finals MVP and longest-tenured participant traded for him. And it’s uncertain that Brad Stevens would break aside the group he spent the offseason solidifying.

Nevertheless, a possible Butler commerce serves as a reminder that tough choices are on the horizon. Do not forget that, on prime of the overloaded payroll, the Boston Celtics are at present on the market. With this commerce, the present possession might make the monetary state of affairs extra interesting for potential consumers.

Whereas such a earth-shattering deal could not make sense this season, it might be a template for what’s to come back.