If I’ve discovered something from the brand new Statcast bat monitoring information, it’s that bat pace alone isn’t adequate to provide a high-quality main league hitter. Johnathan Rodriguez, Trey Cabbage, Zach Dezenzo, Jerar Encarnacion — all of those guys, at this early stage of their main league careers, swing exhausting however miss tougher. Bat pace solely issues if you make contact.
Once you do hit the ball, nevertheless, it’s good when your swing is as quick as attainable. Swinging quick whereas making good contact more often than not — it’s exhausting to do, but when you are able to do it, you’re most likely among the finest hitters in baseball.
The rationale it’s uncommon is as a result of these two variables — swinging exhausting and making strong contact — are negatively correlated. As some most likely bear in mind from when these stats initially dropped, Luis Arraez swings the slowest and squares up all the things, whereas Giancarlo Stanton swings the quickest however seldom connects. A gradual swing is a extra exact swing, and so the group of hitters who can swing exactly whereas letting it rip are unusual.
To be able to decide who these uncommon hitters are, it’s needed to pick some arbitrary cutoffs. I’ve picked hitters who’ve roughly eightieth percentile bat speeds and fiftieth percentile squared-up per swing charges. (A “squared-up” swing is one the place a hitter maximizes their exit velocity.) Right here is the entire listing of hitters who common over 74 mph of bat pace and have at the very least a league-average squared-up charge: Yordan Alvarez, Gunnar Henderson, Manny Machado, William Contreras, Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and… Lawrence Butler???
Sure, Lawrence Butler, a man who bought despatched down in mid-Could after hitting .179/.281/.274 in his first 120 plate appearances, is a member of this unique listing. Since returning to the majors on June 18, he’s been the seventh-best hitter in baseball, slashing .307/.341/.622 and posting a 169 wRC+ over his 270 plate appearances coming into play Thursday. How is he doing this?
For essentially the most half, it looks like Butler is dominating by fixating on the underside of the zone. I don’t know if that is tremendous unusual, however Butler has zero hits on pitches on the very high of the zone this season. Almost all of his injury is focused on pitches down the center and on the knees.
The warmth maps make this clear. Here’s a map of Butler’s slugging per pitch by zone:
These location-based tendencies suggest that Butler would have a large uppercut swing, however my eyes (and the information) recommend in any other case. In keeping with SwingGraphs, Butler’s common vertical bat angle of 28.6 levels in August ranked in simply the twenty fifth percentile of steepness. (Aaron Decide, for comparability, was within the 98th percentile with a mean VBA of 40.7.) As Esteban Rivera wrote in a wonderful put up on Jackson Merrill from final month, hitters typically have to “make use of a flatter swing path on the high of the zone and a steeper one on the backside.” However Butler is defying this precept, crushing line drives off low pitches together with his flattish swing.
When Butler does join, he typically reveals a good spray tendency. His singles are distributed fairly evenly throughout the sphere, and his house runs are clustered within the right-center hole. He isn’t dishonest for his energy; as a substitute, he’s leaning on his energy to hit balls out to the deepest components of the park.
Butler’s stage swing aircraft and all-fields method could contribute to his skill to maximise high quality contact whereas swinging exhausting. By maintaining his bat comparatively flat via the zone, Butler offers himself a greater probability to make contact in comparison with a hitter with a steeper uppercut. And by seeking to drive the ball via the center of the sphere moderately than searching for out pull energy, he will get just a little bit of additional time to determine whether or not to swing.
Regardless of the purpose, Butler’s numbers are fairly outstanding. Getting into play Thursday, Butler is hanging out simply 19.6% of the time since returning to the majors in mid-June. Amongst his fellow hitters slugging at the very least .600 over that very same timeframe, solely three are hanging out much less usually: Guerrero, Bobby Witt Jr., and Alvarez. Butler’s bodily energy and refined method during the last two and a half months are resulting in outcomes that recommend he can, at the very least for a stretch, grasp with the very best hitters within the recreation.
In fact, Butler is just 24 and spent massive chunks of his season navigating the Pacific Coast League. (I occurred to see him crush a house run simply contained in the left-field foul pole in Tacoma earlier this 12 months, prompting questions on what he was doing there.) To some extent, he’s a piece in progress, and pitchers will make their inevitable changes. Throwing him pitches excessive within the zone is one apparent assault plan for any pitcher. For no matter purpose, he hasn’t accomplished a lot towards pitches in that location.
Butler has additionally proven some weak point towards sure pitch varieties. Towards sinkers, he’s put up a -6 run worth. He’s taken a bunch of them for known as strikes from each righties and lefties, and when he makes contact, he’s typically pounding it straight into the bottom. Maybe it is a draw back of a flat swing path — if Butler places his four-seamer swing on a sinker, it units him up completely to hit a floor ball. A lefty with a demonic sinker like Framber Valdez, in different phrases, is Butler’s nightmare matchup.
Changeups, in the meantime, seem like the go-to pitch for pitchers seeking to induce a swing-and-miss. Butler is whiffing on 40% of changeups he swings at, by far his highest whiff charge on any given pitch kind. This tracks with Butler’s fixation on the center and backside of the zone. If he’s looking low fastballs, for example, a changeup is the right pitch to throw to get him off steadiness and out in entrance.
When pitchers inevitably regulate, it doesn’t appear unreasonable to imagine he can counter. On softer velocity close to the highest of the zone, he has proven he’s able to placing a Merrill-like uppercut swing to inflict injury. And I’ve seen swings the place he reveals the form of bat path variability reflective of a participant with a reasonably good hit device.
That pitch was fairly far outdoors, permitting Butler to increase his arms, nevertheless it hints at what a possible swing on excessive pitches may appear like. Despite the fact that at this level in his profession it doesn’t look snug, the comparatively flat start line means the adjustment won’t be as troublesome.
Butler’s weaknesses aren’t actually value dwelling on an excessive amount of. Once more, he was despatched down in Could of this 12 months. And as just lately as 2022, he was hanging out 31.5% of the time in Excessive-A. In June of 2023, Tess Taruskin expressed concern about Butler’s “in-zone swing-and-miss” points and skill to play the outfield — but in addition noticed the define of a future Butler breakout in his early-season strikeout charge reductions.
“Assuming Butler stays wholesome for all of 2023, his flirtation with a greater method reveals promising indicators of blossoming right into a full-blown romance,” Tess wrote. Quick ahead a 12 months, and never solely has Butler lowered his swing-and-miss sufficient to keep up a mean strikeout charge, he’s even holding his personal in proper area, grading out as roughly common by Baseball Savant’s OAA metric.
It’s been some time for the reason that A’s developed a high quality place participant, however to my eyes, it seems to be like Butler could possibly be higher than simply high quality. He’s 24 years previous, enjoying a good proper area, and slugging like among the finest gamers within the recreation. On the very least, I feel he’s fairly good.
