After 23 race weekends the System 1 grid arrives on the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, the season’s remaining race, with the Constructors’ Championship nonetheless up for grabs. Simply two groups stay in rivalry, McLaren and Ferrari, with 21 factors separating the 2 rivals.
McLaren had an opportunity to clinch the title final weekend on the Qatar Grand Prix, and a front-row lockout from Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris within the F1 Dash Race in Qatar — coupled with each drivers operating within the prime three within the Grand Prix — put them on the verge of clinching the Championship. Nevertheless, a ten-second stop-and-go penalty handed all the way down to Norris within the closing phases of the race dropped him from second all the way down to P15, and whereas Norris fought to get again into the factors, it allowed Ferrari to shut the hole between the 2 groups from 30 all the way down to 21. Proper now McLaren has 640 factors on the 12 months, with Ferrari sitting on 619.
That provides Ferrari an opportunity this weekend, however McLaren nonetheless holds the benefit.
Listed here are the title permutations for each groups heading into the ultimate race of the season.
What number of factors are left to be determined within the 2024 F1 season?
With only one Grand Prix remaining, that is fairly simple. Probably the most a group can financial institution in a single grand prix is 44 factors: 25 factors for first place, 18 factors for second place, and a bonus level for one of many drivers selecting up the quickest lap of the race.
It must be famous that between the 2 groups, solely Ferrari has completed this feat in the course of the 2024 season. That got here on the Australian Grand Prix again at first of the 12 months, when Carlos Sainz Jr. gained with Charles Leclerc ending second, and Leclerc picked up the bonus level for the quickest lap of the race.
Whereas McLaren does have a one-two end on the books this season, on the Hungarian Grand Prix the place Piastri gained and Norris completed second, George Russell took the bonus level that day.
Purple Bull completed that feat twice earlier within the 12 months, on the Bahrain Grand Prix after which on the Japanese Grand Prix. Max Verstappen gained each races — taking the bonus level in every — with Sergio Pérez ending second in each races.
Earlier than diving into the varied eventualities it’s price remembering how F1 allocates factors in grands prix. The winner takes residence 25 factors, with a sliding scale from there. The second-place driver banks 18, third place 15, after which 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, and all the way down to a single level for the Tenth-place driver.
How can McLaren clinch the Constructors’ Championship?
With a 21-point lead over Ferrari, McLaren wants so as to add 24 factors in Abu Dhabi to clinch the title and stop Ferrari from catching them. 24 factors would deliver their lead over Ferrari to 45 factors, one level forward of the utmost on supply this weekend.
They’ll additionally win the title in the event that they rating 43 factors in Abu Dhabi, which might deliver their result in 44 factors forward of what Ferrari accomplishes within the race. Nevertheless, that might require that neither Leclerc nor Sainz win the race. Ought to the 2 groups end stage on factors, the primary tiebreaker could be the variety of race wins.
For the time being every group has 5 wins. But when Ferrari had been to win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, that might give them six, and a tiebreaker benefit ought to the 2 groups end stage on factors.
The best manner for McLaren to clinch the title? Both Piastri or Norris wins the race. That alone would give them 25 factors, and an insurmountable lead for Ferrari.
Different combos that might get McLaren the 24 factors they want? A P2 (18 factors) and a P7 (six factors) would get the job carried out. A P3 (15 factors) plus a P5 (10 factors) would even be sufficient, even when Ferrari had been to lock out the entrance row and choose up the bonus level.
McLaren has extra pathways to win the Constructors’ Championship had been Ferrari to complete additional down the order, however assuming a Ferrari one-two, together with the bonus level, these are the outcomes McLaren would want.
How can Ferrari clinch the Constructors’ Championship?
Ferrari, given the 21-point deficit, has a a lot narrower pathway to a title.
The best — albeit unlikely — path for Ferrari is for them to attain 22 factors or extra, and see McLaren fail to earn a single level. If, hypothetically, certainly one of their drivers wins the race that might give them 25 factors, and a sudden four-point lead over McLaren. Then if each Piastri and Norris end exterior the factors, that might be sufficient.
Or, as outlined above with McLaren, a P2 and a P7 would give Ferrari 24 factors, and if McLaren failed to attain that might quantity to a three-point victory within the Constructors.
The place it will get more durable for Ferrari is whenever you begin working by means of eventualities the place McLaren a minimum of finishes within the factors. As famous above Ferrari may lock out the entrance row and choose up the bonus level, and a P3/P5 mixture from McLaren would nonetheless be sufficient for the Woking-based group to win the title.
Nevertheless, if Ferrari certainly locks out the entrance row and picks up the bonus level for the quickest lap, that might give them 44 factors and a 23-point lead over McLaren. A P3 from certainly one of McLaren’s drivers would reduce that lead all the way down to eight factors, and a P6 from McLaren’s second driver would web McLaren one other eight factors, seeing the groups end stage on 663 factors every.
However in that state of affairs, Ferrari’s win in Abu Dhabi would give them the tiebreaker benefit.
