I up to date the Prime 100 Prospects checklist late final week; you could find the accompanying piece I wrote, which has a bit extra element on the farm system rankings, latest draftees and the commerce deadline, right here. I additionally wrote about all the pitchers on the Prime 100. This piece goes by means of the hitters and why they stack the way in which they do.
Principally each prime place participant prospect you’ll examine right here is an unfinished product. The very prime of the checklist presently lacks a flawless elite prospect; even probably the most gifted gamers within the minors proper now have changes to make or blemishes that may turn into extra of a problem towards huge league pitching. As with the piece on pitchers, you’ll in all probability need the checklist open in a separate tab to comply with together with my notes; I’ve obtained that right here, with hitters remoted away from the arms.
Jackson Holliday and James Wooden
Orioles infielder Jackson Holliday has begun enjoying protection once more coming off his IL stint for elbow irritation. He seems to be slightly rusty and uncomfortable, if not nonetheless compromised to some extent. He’s making a whole lot of routine performs look tougher than they should be, and the standard of his arms has backed up. He additionally doesn’t look nice on offense. He’s much less explosive than final yr and infrequently late to the contact level. Holliday is inside-outing pitches on the internal third that he was pulling final yr; this was the case earlier than the IL stint and has remained so since he has returned.
I’m inclined to provide Holliday a number of room to breathe on these things (I didn’t give a dinged-up Marcelo Mayer a lot leeway final yr, which seems to be just like the flawed choice now), and he’s nonetheless performing in a superlative means at Triple-A Norfolk, the place he has a 144 wRC+ and practically 50% hard-hit charge at age 20. However he does appear like a 20-year-old misplaced in a sea of adults, and it’s turn into powerful to make a robust argument for Holliday over James Wooden proper now. Wooden is freakier and is holding his head above water within the huge leagues, and if Holliday’s points on protection are lasting, then the as soon as massive hole between their defensive projections has closed. I don’t all of a sudden assume Holliday is prone to busting or something like that, however I can’t have a 70 on him proper now. He slides a spot.
There’s been no change for Wooden since my final replace. Huge league pitchers are attacking him down and away with higher frequency, and Wooden, whose entrance aspect typically stays too excessive all through his swing to succeed in these pitches, is swinging excessive of a whole lot of them and placing out 34.7% of the time. He’s proven flashes of having the ability to bend deeper into his decrease half in order that his barrel can dive to this location, however he’s not doing so persistently but. Modifications to the composition of Wooden’s decrease physique and the way he makes use of it in his swing are key issues to search for when he will get getting into camp subsequent spring.
The Rays Children
The Rays have three impression prospects in infielder Junior Caminero (no. 3), shortstop Carson Williams (no. 5), and first baseman Xavier Isaac (no. 9). The Rays have begun to play Caminero at second and third base in Durham. Apart from the “feast or famine” dynamic created by Cami’s youthful strategy on protection (at occasions spectacular, at others reckless), he seems to be fairly good at each spots contemporary off a Grade-2 quad pressure.
Williams and Isaac each have strikeout points and can in all probability require a chronic adjustment to huge league pitching earlier than they peak as offensive performers, particularly Williams. Consider Williams as the present iteration of Pete Crow-Armstrong: His elite protection at a premium place goes to be instantly evident however strikeouts will undermine his offense. Ultimately, I feel Williams will get to huge energy (he already has rather a lot for a 21-year-old and nonetheless has room for extra) and be an impression participant. He has fairly horrible breaking ball recognition proper now and, like PCA, the beginning of his profession on offense will in all probability be rocky. However over time, Williams’ output ought to find yourself being much like what Willy Adames has performed.
Issac’s swing-and-miss points are additionally form of scary; his contact charges (round 61%) are on the backside of what we see from impression huge league sluggers. He’s struggling to cowl the outer third of the zone proper now. Nonetheless, like Wooden, Issac exhibits glimpses of not solely having the ability to cowl that a part of the zone however of being harmful on the market. He’s most profitable in doing this when he’s bent on the waist over the zone. His energy is so monumental that I feel Isaac might be a well-below-average contact hitter and nonetheless be an impression participant. He has a 60% hard-hit charge up to now this yr. To contextualize that, Aaron Choose’s profession mark is 57% and there isn’t a cluster round him; Choose is in a tier on his personal. If at any level Isaac begins to grasp how simple it’s for him to hit for energy along with his arms alone, he’s going to have that energy and one thing extra like a median hit instrument, leading to years the place he hits 40 house runs.
Williams and Isaac are in all probability nonetheless a few years away. Williams is a possible September 2025 debut, whereas Isaac is monitoring a yr behind him. Within the meantime, gamers like Curtis Mead and Jonathan Aranda (as soon as he’s wholesome) ought to lastly get a chronic alternative to determine themselves, maybe instantly if the Rays proceed to make trades.
The Remainder of the 60 FV Prospects
This tier is usually occupied by gamers projected to carry impression offense whereas additionally enjoying an up-the-middle place. With few exceptions, you need gamers like this slightly than their nook place counterparts. Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo hasn’t caught back-to-back video games since mid-June and has struggled on offense for the final couple of weeks. He seemed completely monumental in comparison with the opposite children on the Futures Sport, and he isn’t an athletic mover, however his arm is just too good to maneuver him out from behind the plate. I’m not going to boost a fuss a couple of teenage catcher (Basallo turns 20 in mid-August) having a so-so July at Double-A; he’s been good for a lot of the season. There’s been no change to his report — he nonetheless has a lefty-hitting Gary Sánchez-type talent set:
I’ll admit to being swayed by Marcelo Mayer’s hit knowledge up to now this season, which features a actually spectacular 50% hard-hit charge. I additionally revisited his protection on tape, and because it has continued to pattern in a constructive route, he moved up on this replace.
Dylan Crews seems to be okay in heart subject. His routes are sometimes circuitous and he tasks as a median defender slightly than an impression one. He’d play a nook on most groups; in the event you take a look at who has performed a whole lot of heart subject within the huge leagues this yr, solely 10 or so of these guys are at or beneath the extent Crews is on the market. Regardless that he’s reduce his strikeout charges a bit at Triple-A, Crews’ swing path goes to depart him weak to huge league velo round his arms and he’ll in all probability all the time strike out a good bit. However he’s so explosive and highly effective that he’ll run into loads of extra-base hits regardless of less-than-great barrel really feel.
Jordan Lawlar (torn thumb ligament, a number of hamstring strains) has been injured just about all yr. There’s been no change to his report.
I wrote about Ethan Salas very not too long ago.
The 55 FV Tier
This grouping begins with the cluster of well-rounded nook outfield bats who’re poised to be heart-of-the-order forces. They’re basically stacked primarily based on their proximity to the massive leagues, besides I slid Heston Kjerstad a tad due to his tendency to chase. The names on this group have been clumped collectively on this a part of the rankings for some time now.
Colson Montgomery continues to be simply too huge and sluggish for me to really feel snug projecting him as a median shortstop defender, however with Bryan Ramos (who has struggled on offense this yr, however continues to be enjoying acrobatic protection that I feel shall be plus at maturity) round, it is sensible to let Montgomery play shortstop within the huge leagues whereas the Sox are nonetheless rebuilding. If Ramos turns into the defender I feel he’ll, then the 2 of them is likely to be okay as a left-side combo even when I’m proper about Colson being a 40 glove.
Wrapping up the 55 FV hitters are two prospects with large energy potential for up-the-middle gamers: Yankees outfielder Spencer Jones and Rangers shortstop Sebastian Walcott. Jones is absolutely struggling; he seems to be completely uncomfortable on the dish and isn’t even accessing his energy amidst all of the whiffs. He has a sub-.400 xSLG on the yr and is poised to slip inside the 100 this winter until he turns issues round between now and the tip of the season. He seems to be higher in heart subject than he does on offense.
In the meantime, Walcott is just too freaky to have ranked decrease than this. When you’ve been studying this web site for some time, you already know I are likely to put the intense threat/upside guys towards the again of the 55 FV tier whereas they’re within the decrease minors. That applies to Walcott, who I feel has a greater shot to stay at shortstop for whereas than I did on my final replace. His energy ceiling is within the Fernando Tatis Jr. space.
The 50 FV Tier
To keep away from this put up getting too lengthy, from right here on out I’ll solely go into element on the gamers who’ve moved. I’ve power-hitting up-the-middle hitters on the prime of the 50 FV tier. Twins heart fielder Emmanuel Rodriguez, Yankees heart fielder Jasson Domínguez and Cubs heart fielder Kevin Alcántara stack subsequent to 1 one other once more. Rodriguez is a extra secure offensive participant than Spencer Jones (who is 2 spots in entrance of him), however my preseason justification for Jones over Rodriguez and Domínguez was that his body has constructive long-term projection whereas the opposite two are already maxed of their early 20s, and prone to thicken and sluggish.
After the power-hitting heart fielders is a giant group (from about thirty second to fifty fifth total) of contact-oriented, up-the-middle on a regular basis gamers who’re lined up largely primarily based on their proximity to the massive leagues. Braves catcher Drake Baldwin is the brand new identify on this group. His minor league Statcast knowledge jives with the spectacular BP and in-game efficiency he had on the Futures Sport. There’s sufficient energy right here for this man to be a major catcher.
There are a few nook guys who’ve sufficient energy to advantage inclusion on this up-the-middle group: latest draftees Jac Caglianone and Charlie Condon, and Cubs infielder Matt Shaw, who lacks a real place. Trickling in amongst and simply behind these guys are up-the-middle gamers with well-rounded however much less distinctive talent units, guys like Kyle Teel and Drew Gilbert, who must be strong on a regular basis gamers however lack a superlative attribute. Nacho Alvarez Jr. strikes into the Prime 100 as a result of the early returns on him enjoying non-shortstop positions are very favorable. He seems to be like a plus or higher third base defender, which we simply didn’t know till now as a result of he had solely been enjoying a mediocre shortstop.
After Nacho, we get into the group of hitters with excessive upside and variance, beginning with Colt Emerson and Termarr Johnson (who each look extra like second basemen than shortstops to me, which is a part of why they’re down right here) and ending with Brady Home. After Home, I’ve obtained flawed gamers with actual query marks. Bryan Ramos’ bat pace is middling, however he can actually choose it and he has posted above-average contact charges his total profession. The group of catchers who’re in all probability first basemen (no less than more often than not) comes after Ramos, and the primary base or unhealthy nook defender hitters with strikeout points (Jace Jung, Owen Caissie, and so on.) carry up the rear.
Between them I sandwiched a couple of extra up-the-middle guys with precocious bat-to-ball abilities. Brewers shortstop Cooper Pratt enters the 100 after wanting not solely surprisingly viable at shortstop, however fairly good there. Guardians center infielder Welbyn Francisca and Dodgers heart fielder Eduardo Quintero have proven sufficient on each side of the ball to affix this group, too. These guys aren’t in Sebastian Walcott territory by way of their energy potential (not one of the hitters on this contingent are), however I really feel like they’re the perfect of this yr’s complex-level contingent. I additionally thought of Diamondbacks third baseman Yassel Soler, who has raked all yr, however finally he’s a nook man whose plate self-discipline I wish to see examined by full-season pitching.
