The Guardians are re-signing right-hander Shane Bieber, per Buster Olney of ESPN (X hyperlink). It’s a one-year take care of a participant possibility for 2026, per Robert Murray of FanSided (X hyperlink). Per Jeff Passan of ESPN (X hyperlink), Bieber will make $10MM subsequent 12 months with a $16MM wage on the choice and a $4MM buyout. Which means it’s a $26MM assure over two years however Bieber can doubtlessly return to free company subsequent winter after banking $14MM in 12 months one. Per Jon Heyman of The New York Submit (X hyperlink), Bieber turned down extra money with different golf equipment so as to return to Cleveland. The righty is represented by Rosenhaus Sports activities Illustration.
Bieber, 30 in Might, returns to the one group he’s ever recognized. The contract is a mirrored image of his present standing, as he underwent Tommy John surgical procedure in April, which means he’ll miss at the least a part of the upcoming season. This deal affords him the possibility to return to the mound in 2025 and set up his well being. If his efficiency can return anyplace close to his beforehand elite ranges, he can resolve to return to the open market. Although if he hits any form of setback or doesn’t fairly bounce again instantly, he can financial institution the additional $12MM and stick round one other 12 months.
Whether or not he can certainly get again in kind is the large query. Bieber’s ceiling is effectively established, as he received the American League Cy Younger award in 2020. He dominated the shortened season, making 12 begins that 12 months with a 1.63 earned run common. He struck out 41.1% of batters confronted, walked 7.1% of opponents and received grounders at a 48.4% charge.
However issues have principally gone downhill since then, even earlier than the surgical procedure. In 2021, his numbers dipped, which wasn’t precisely surprising as sustaining his 2020 stats over a full season would have been nearly not possible. His 3.17 ERA and 33.1% strikeout charge had been each off of his earlier season however nonetheless robust numbers. He missed about three months as a consequence of a proper shoulder subscapularis pressure.
In 2022, he stayed wholesome sufficient to make 31 begins and log 200 innings with a 2.88 ERA, however with extra regarding indicators elsewhere. He averaged simply 91.3 miles per hour on his fastball that 12 months, after principally being within the 93-94 vary in prior years. His strikeout charge additionally dipped to 25%, nonetheless a bit above league common however a drop for him personally. In 2023, he missed time as a consequence of proper elbow irritation, which appears in hindsight like a precursor to his surgical procedure. He did make 21 begins on the 12 months however with a 3.80 ERA, 20.1% strikeout charge and related velocity to the 12 months prior.
Going into 2024, his identify was in loads of commerce rumors. The Guardians usually commerce gamers as their wage grows and so they get nearer to free company, doing so with gamers like Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and Corey Kluber considerably not too long ago. In hindsight, maybe the Guards ought to have pulled the set off on a deal, however perhaps they didn’t obtain substantial presents on the heels of all of the pink flags in 2022 and 2023.
For a short second, hanging onto Bieber appeared like a superb transfer. He made two begins originally of 2024, tossing six shutout innings in every of them and recording 20 strikeouts in these 12 innings. His velocity got here again barely, together with his fastball averaging 92.3 mph in his first begin of the 12 months. However it dipped to 91.6 mph within the second begin and the information of his surgical procedure dropped earlier than he may make a 3rd.
Now he’ll be trying to come again from the prolonged Tommy John restoration course of, in addition to the regarding seasons that preceded the operation. It’s now been a very long time since Bieber had his finest stuff over a full season, arguably since 2019. The shortened 2020 season was clearly exterior of his management however all however one season since then has seen him miss important time. Within the one season the place he stayed on the mound, his stuff was clearly diminished.
All that makes this an attention-grabbing gamble for the Guardians, as it is a pretty notable expenditure for them. They don’t usually spend a lot in free company, significantly on the pitching aspect. As proven in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, within the final 15 years, that is the primary time they’ve given a pitcher greater than $7MM. That’s partially a testomony to their capacity to develop their very own pitching however they’ve additionally solely given 4 place gamers a bigger assure than this in that point.
Per RosterResource, the Guards at the moment are projected for a payroll of $107MM subsequent 12 months, already greater than what they spent in 2024. They may maybe drop that by buying and selling somebody like Josh Naylor or Lane Thomas however this Bieber deal is an honest chunk of the price range both means.
It’s a dangerous proposition for these parameters. Provided that restoration from Tommy John surgical procedure usually takes 14 months or longer, the Guards would possibly solely get half a season or so from Bieber in 2025. If he hits a setback of any sort, it might be lower than that. Even when he’s again on an enormous league mound by June, it’s no assure that he’ll be in good kind.
The upside play is that Bieber comes again to one thing resembling an ace. The Guards set up him into their second half rotation after which, ideally, as a key piece of their postseason rotation. At that time, he would decline his participant possibility and so they may difficulty him a qualifying supply, which can in all probability be within the $22MM vary. Assuming he declines that and goes out searching for a significant deal, they’d recoup draft choose compensation.
On the opposite finish of the spectrum are the eventualities the place Bieber isn’t fairly totally wholesome or just isn’t pretty much as good as he was earlier than, through which case he sticks round for an additional 12 months at a fair increased wage than in 2025.
It’s a threat the Guardians are keen to take, which is maybe as a result of respect that the group has for him, nevertheless it’s additionally maybe a mirrored image of the present rotation state of affairs. The Guardians managed to win the Central in 2024, however the Bieber-less rotation was the weakest a part of the roster. They struggled to seek out viable options there for a lot of the 12 months, discovering success on the backs of an honest offense and elite bullpen.
Pitchers like Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen both struggled or had been injured or each. Tanner Bibee was the membership’s solely starter who has persistently wholesome and performing effectively all 12 months lengthy. Matthew Boyd was a superb midseason addition, coming in after recovering from his personal Tommy John surgical procedure, however he turned a free agent at season’s finish and has a deal in place with the Cubs.
Subsequent 12 months’s Opening Day rotation for Cleveland at the moment consists of Bibee and plenty of query marks. Guys like Williams, McKenzie and Allen are nonetheless within the combine however coming off these aforementioned difficulties. Journeyman Ben Vigorous is on the roster, as are pretty unproven guys like Joey Cantillo and Doug Nikhazy. The Guards in all probability have extra to do in upgrading that group however they’ll hope that Bieber can cost in like a proverbial white knight in some unspecified time in the future in the midst of 2025 to save lots of the day.
The aforementioned Boyd provides a tough template of what Bieber and the Guards can be hoping for subsequent 12 months. Boyd posted a 2.72 ERA in eight begins down the stretch after which had three extra good outings within the postseason. That was sufficient to get him a two-year, $29MM deal, however Bieber has a path to incomes way over that. Boyd goes into his age-34 season whereas Bieber can be going into his age-31 marketing campaign in 2026. Boyd’s damage observe report can be extra in depth than Bieber’s and Bieber has the extra spectacular early profession numbers.
As such, with a powerful end in 2025, Bieber may place himself to earn way over Boyd simply did. Although that’s simply certainly one of many potential eventualities in entrance of him and the Guardians within the 12 months to return.
Extra to return.
