GT inch nearer to playoff, MI in robust spot after loss

With 56 matches completed in the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 season, the playoff race has entered its most intense phase. Teams now don’t have time to slack off, with a single loss probably ending their race to the next round. Mumbai Indians might be one of those teams. With Gujarat Titans edging MI in a dramatic match, Hardik Pandya & Co are now in a tough spot. However, for GT, they can breathe a sigh of relief as a win in their remaining three games will ensure a Top 4 spot.

The win over MI helped GT jump to the top of the IPL 2025 Points Table with 16 points from 11 matches. They are ahead on NRR even though Royal Challengers Bengaluru are also on 16 points from 11 games.

While Chennai Super Kings (CSK), Rajasthan Royals (RR) and Sunrisers Hyderabad (SRH) are officially eliminated, seven teams still remain in contention for the final four spots.

The top of the table is tightly packed, with Gujarat Titans (GT), Royal Challengers Bengaluru (RCB), Punjab Kings (PBKS), and Mumbai Indians (MI) all within touching distance of qualification. But Delhi Capitals are not far off either. Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR) and Lucknow Super Giants (LSG) are also banking on favourable results to sneak in. With every remaining match carrying weight, the margin for error is razor-thin.

Usually, teams with 14 points go through to the top four. However, this will not be the case at IPL 2025. Four teams already breached this mark just when May started and now even 16 points won’t guarantee qualification. Here’s a team-by-team breakdown of what each side needs to qualify.

IPL 2025 Points Table

IPL Playoff format

• Qualifier 1: The top two teams (1st vs 2nd) from the league stage compete. The winner advances directly to the final. The loser gets another chance in Qualifier 2.
• Eliminator: The third and fourth-placed teams (3rd vs 4th) face off. The winner advances to Qualifier 2, and the loser is eliminated.
• Qualifier 2: The loser of Qualifier 1 plays the winner of the Eliminator. The winner of this match qualifies for the final. The loser is eliminated.
• Final: The winner of Qualifier 1 faces the winner of Qualifier 2 to determine the IPL champion.

GT (Gujarat Titans) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs DC (A), vs LSG (H), vs CSK (H)
• Position: 1st – 11 matches, 16 points, NRR +0.867
• Probability: ~95%

GT Qualification Scenario

GT have three games left and that gives them flexibility. Even one win in those remaining matches will help them secure 18 points and perhaps playoffs. Three wins will ensure a top-two finish and thus, the cushion of Qualifier 1. However, their match against DC and LSG will be crucial. DC can sneak in with a win, while LSG could upset others. Their strong NRR gives them a safety net in tie scenarios.

RCB (Royal Challengers Bengaluru) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs LSG (A), vs SRH (H), vs KKR (H)
• Position: 1st – 11 matches, 16 points, NRR +0.482
• Probability: ~90%.

RCB Qualification Scenario

RCB are all but through. One more win from their remaining three matches will mathematically confirm a playoff spot. Two wins will take them to 20 points, likely locking a top-two finish unless other teams also surge. Their NRR is steady but not unassailable, so a large loss could still complicate things if there’s a multi-team tie at 16 or 18 points. However, with their current cushion, a 95%+ probability of qualification is realistic.

PBKS (Punjab Kings) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs DC (H), vs MI (H), vs RR (A)
• Position: 2nd – 11 matches, 15 points, NRR +0.376
• Probability: ~80%

PBKS Qualification Scenario

One more win takes PBKS to 17, which should suffice for a top-four finish. Two wins likely guarantee it. They face two strong teams in MI and DC, so the upcoming games are crucial. A 1-2 finish may leave them at 17 and dependent on NRR and other results, especially if DC or KKR push through.

MI (Mumbai Indians) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs PBKS (A), vs DC (H)
• Position: 4th – 12 matches, 14 points, NRR +1.274
• Probability: ~70%

Qualification Scenario

The loss against GT did not help MI. It not only ended MI’s 6-match winning streak, but also slightly dented their hopes. MI now must beat Punjab Kings or Delhi Capitals to remain in the fray. Two wins in two matches will ensure qualification. But if they lose both, they will be knocked out. Both PBKS and DC are playoff contenders. While a loss against PBKS won’t be that damaging, a defeat to DC could end their playoff hopes.

DC (Delhi Capitals) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs PBKS (A), vs GT (H), vs MI (A)
• Position: 5th – 11 matches, 13 points, NRR +0.362
• Probability: ~60%

DC Qualification Scenario

DC must win at least two of their remaining three matches to be in contention. That gets them to 17, a likely qualifying score. If they only win one (15 points), they will depend heavily on NRR and need other teams to falter. Beating either GT or MI is a must in hurting rivals and boosting their own case.

KKR (Kolkata Knight Riders) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs CSK (H), vs SRH (A), vs RCB (A)
• Position: 6th – 11 matches, 11 points, NRR +0.249
• Probability: ~10%

KKR Qualification Scenario

KKR need to win at least two of their last three matches to get to 15 points. Even then, they’ll need favourable results elsewhere. Three wins (17 points) give them a strong shot, but their final game is against RCB away. A loss in any match could eliminate them, depending on how DC and LSG finish. Their NRR is better than LSG’s, but worse than DC’s.

LSG (Lucknow Super Giants) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs RCB (H), vs GT (A), vs SRH (H)
• Position: 7th – 11 matches, 10 points, NRR -0.469
• Probability: ~5%

LSG Qualification Scenario

LSG must win all three remaining matches to get to 16 points. Their low NRR means they also need at least one big win or for rivals like DC and KKR to lose multiple games. If they lose even one, their campaign is essentially over. Winning against both RCB and GT is critical, as it also directly hurts playoff rivals.

SRH (Sunrisers Hyderabad) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs KKR (H), vs RCB (A), vs LSG (A)
• Position: 8th – 11 matches, 7 points, NRR -1.192
• Status: Eliminated

SRH cannot qualify even if they win all remaining games. They can only reach 13 points. Their role now is that of spoilers against KKR, RCB and LSG. Expect them to test bench strength and focus on ending the season with pride.

RR (Rajasthan Royals) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs CSK (H), vs PBKS (H)
• Position: 9th – 12 matches, 6 points, NRR -0.718
• Status: Eliminated

RR are officially out of the playoffs after their heavy loss to MI. Even two wins will only get them to 10 points. The team will look to play spoilsport.

CSK (Chennai Super Kings) Scenario

• Remaining Fixtures: vs KKR (A), vs RR (A), vs GT (A)
• Position: 10th – 11 matches, 4 points, NRR -1.117
• Status: Eliminated

CSK’s campaign is over, and they will finish in the bottom two. A poor NRR and horrible form have marked their downfall. Their remaining matches will impact the playoff race, especially if they upset KKR or GT.