Upsets occur with a lot much less frequency within the girls’s NCAA Match than the lads’s.
For instance, a No. 2 seed has by no means crushed a No. 15 seed, and a No. 3 has by no means crushed a No. 14 seed.
However upsets do occur.
Simply final yr we noticed No. 11 Center Tennessee State defeat seventh-seeded Louisville. The yr earlier than that, Florida Gulf Coast took down Washington State, Princeton beat Baylor, and Toledo topped Iowa State. These had been along with two No. 1 seeds — Indiana and Stanford — shedding on their dwelling ground within the second spherical.
In 2022, a No. 10 seed in Creighton made all of it the best way to the Elite Eight, and fellow 10-seed South Dakota made it to the Candy 16. Double-digit seeds in Princeton and FGCU additionally received first-round video games that yr.
As funding in girls’s basketball has elevated throughout the nation, so has the parity. This yr, we’re sure to get at the least one double-digit seed successful its first-round sport — and perhaps going even farther into March.
Earlier than you print out your bracket and fill in your picks with Sharpies, take into account these mid-majors to probably pull off upsets and go on deep runs.
Fairfield
Beneath Carly Thibault-DuDonis, the Stags have established themselves as a mid-major energy within the sport, going 57-6 total with a pair of MAAC match titles. Alongside the best way, Fairfield has crushed main convention opponents like Rutgers, St. John’s, Arkansas, Villanova and Wake Forest. Earlier this season, they misplaced at Oklahoma State — a No. 7 seed on this match — by simply two factors.
Fairfield has among the best defenses within the nation, rating tenth nationally in factors allowed per sport, twenty second in defensive score, tenth in 3-point protection, fifth in offensive rebounds surrendered, and tenth in defensive rebounding. Within the first spherical, the Stags are going through a Kansas State group that will probably be enjoying with a less-than-totally-healthy Ayoka Lee. Whereas Lee is anticipated to be on the court docket, how efficient she will probably be stays unclear. Together with her, the Wildcats are 20-1. With out her, they’re 6-6.
If Lee isn’t in her dominant kind, Fairfield might win. Even when she performs properly, the Stags might nonetheless make this an actual sport and ship Jeff Mittie’s squad again to Manhattan early.
Montana State
The Bobcats went 28-3 this season and notched spectacular wins over the likes of UCF and Northern Arizona. Protection is what they do greatest, as they lead the nation in each steals per sport (14.2) and steal charge (17.2). They’re additionally fifth within the nation in turnovers compelled per sport (22.8) and ninth in factors allowed per play (0.69). Additionally they make 77.9 p.c of their free throws as a group, which is nice for twentieth nationally.
Merely put, the Bobcats tend to place the clamps on their opponents and drive them into errors. Within the first spherical, they play an Ohio State group that has misplaced 5 of its final 10 video games and had double-digit turnovers in every of these video games, and an astounding 19 cough-ups towards Maryland.
Harvard
Coached by Carrie Moore, Harvard is within the NCAA Match for the primary time since 2007. Lengthy earlier than UMBC beat Virginia on the lads’s aspect, the Crimson had been the primary 16-seed to beat a No. 1, upsetting Stanford within the 1998 match.
This yr, the Crimson are led by a bonafide star in Harmoni Turner, who’s ninth within the nation in scoring with 22.5 factors per sport. And he or she has a knack for taking part in properly in massive video games — just lately scoring 44 factors towards Princeton within the Ivy Insanity semifinals, developing with 24 factors and 6 steals in a November win at Indiana, and scoring 41 factors in a victory over Boston School.
Harvard faces a Michigan State group that’s sound defensively, however has had some struggles in shutting down proficient guards. In latest video games, JuJu Watkins scored 28 factors towards them and Iowa’s Lucy Olsen had 21.
South Florida
The Bulls are NCAA Match regulars out of the American Athletic Convention. They’re within the Large Dance for the ninth time since 2013 and have superior to the second spherical 5 instances in that stretch, all coming beneath head coach Jose Fernandez.
USF is 23-10 this season, however most of these losses got here to actually good groups. The Bulls’ non-conference power of schedule was seventh nationally. They fell towards squads like UConn, Vanderbilt, Louisville, Mississippi State, South Carolina and TCU — all match groups this season — but additionally beat Duke, the ACC champs.
The well-rounded Bulls are armed with an awesome 3-point shooter in Sammie Puisis, a top-notch ground common in Mama Dembele, and stable rebounders within the frontcourt in Carla Brito and L’or Mputu. Of their first spherical matchup, Tennessee ought to take them extremely critically.
