Just below a 12 months in the past, the Mariners acquired second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins as a part of a five-player deal that additionally concerned right-hander Anthony DeScalfani, the latter of whom was traded to Seattle as a part of the Robbie Ray commerce earlier that very same month. On the time of the deal, including Polanco gave the impression to be one thing of a coup for the Mariners, who had been in determined want of an improve over Kolten Wong at second base and managed to make the most of the truth that the Twins had been going through a mandate to chop payroll and had loads of infield depth at their disposal.
That allowed them so as to add a former All-Star with who had slashed .255/.333/.462 (120 wRC+) over the earlier three seasons. Polanco even got here with a number of years of management within the type of a $12MM crew choice ($750K buyout) that appeared fairly prone to be a no brainer for the membership to select up when the commerce was executed. Flash ahead to the tip of the 2024 marketing campaign, nonetheless, and Polanco had posted arguably the worst full season of his profession earlier than present process knee surgical procedure in October. On condition that, it was a shock to nobody when the Mariners opted to say no their choice on the switch-hitter and pocket the $11.25MM in financial savings to be used on different areas of the roster.
Since then, Polanco has been awaiting a chance on the free agent market. The infielder is slated to return to baseball actions in some unspecified time in the future this month and be absolutely able to go in time for Spring Coaching, however his market has nonetheless been somewhat quiet. The Astros reportedly had some stage of curiosity in Polanco as a fallback plan within the occasion they didn’t land Alex Bregman, however they as an alternative pivoted to a mixture of Isaac Paredes at third base and Christian Walker at first. That appears prone to shut the door on the potential of Polanco heading to Houston, and no different groups have been publicly linked to the infielder.
Some trepidation from golf equipment relating to Polanco is comprehensible. Along with the truth that he’s coming off offseason surgical procedure, there are some worrisome indicators in his efficiency final 12 months even going past his uncooked manufacturing. Polanco’s 29.2% strikeout fee was by far the worst mark of his 11-year MLB tenure. He’s struck out only a 19.5% clip all through his profession, however his strikeouts have been steadily rising over the past a number of years. He struck out at simply an 18.3% clip again in 2021, which was by far one of the best season of his profession. Since then, nonetheless, his strikeouts have climbed every season with a 21.3% determine in 2022 and 25.7% in ’23 earlier than topping out with final 12 months’s aforementioned 29.2% clip.
It’s a worrying development that was current even when Polanco was productive in earlier years and exhibits little signal of turning round. After making contact on 81.6% of pitches he swung at in 2021, good for the Thirty second-highest contact fee amongst 132 certified hitters. That determine dropped to 73.6% final 12 months, although, which was simply 124th amongst 169 hitters with a minimum of 450 plate appearances. That’s a steep drop, although it’s not the offender of Polanco’s downturn in manufacturing by itself. In any case, his 77.1% and 77.2% contact charges in 2022 and ’23 had been diminished relative to 2021 as nicely and Polanco nonetheless managed to stay productive.
The place Polanco discovered success in these years however not 2024 was within the energy division: his barrel fee in 2022 was a nicely above-average 10.2%, and it jumped to a wonderful 13.8% two seasons in the past. Final 12 months, nonetheless, it dipped to simply 8.9%. That’s nonetheless an above-average determine total, however an almost five-point drop in barrel fee is bound to sap any hitter’s energy output. Polanco was no exception to that, as after crushing 14 homers and 18 doubles in simply 343 plate appearances in 2023 final 12 months noticed Polanco slug simply 16 homers and 11 doubles regardless of stepping as much as the plate 136 extra occasions than he had the 12 months prior.
Whereas Polanco’s deteriorating contact numbers and vanishing energy are each clear causes for concern, there may be some cause for optimism as nicely. His 9.8% stroll fee remained nicely above common in 2024, and his .311 xwOBA was 24 factors increased than his .287 wOBA. That implies a minimum of a few of his lackluster marketing campaign final 12 months was attributable to poor batted ball luck, and after a season the place he posted a 92 wRC+ for the Mariners it’s simple to think about him being extra of a mean to barely above-average hitter by that metric had his outcomes matched extra carefully with the underlying metrics.
A second baseman who can put up a wRC+ within the 100-105 vary could be a useful common even when factoring in Polanco’s lackluster protection on the keystone, and it’s not laborious to think about Polanco being a gentle, two-win common if wholesome sufficient to play a full season in 2025 even with out his contract or energy bouncing again. Between that strong ground of manufacturing on the chance Polanco can rediscover both the ability stroke or the extra contact-oriented strategy he discovered success with in earlier seasons, he figures to be one of many higher gamers accessible to groups in want of assist at second or third base at this level within the winter—notably for golf equipment that aren’t keen to commit what it will take to land Bregman, Nolan Arenado, or Ha-Seong Kim on an annual foundation. The Yankees, Angels, Cubs, and Pirates are amongst a variety of groups that would use assist across the infield that Polanco may very well be a speculative match for.
