Final offseason, the Mets acquired in early on the beginning pitching market. They signed Luis Severino in late November, later pairing him with Sean Manaea atop their rotation. Each offers have been modest and quick time period, primarily possibilities for the gamers to rebuild their résumés whereas pitching for a playoff contender. And that’s precisely what occurred. So now, with Severino and Manaea in line for bigger paydays, the circle of life restarts: The Mets have signed Frankie Montas to a two-year, $34 million deal with an decide out after the primary yr.
At floor degree, Montas doesn’t seem to be a blockbuster signing. He simply posted a 4.84 ERA (and 4.71 FIP, this wasn’t some bizarre BABIP subject) in his first yr again after lacking most of 2023 because of a shoulder damage. He’s about to show 32. His final glorious season was in 2021. The record of drawbacks is prolonged.
Ah, however “figuring out which drawbacks to miss” is perhaps David Stearns’ superpower. Manaea was coming off of two straight abysmal seasons when he signed in New York, and Severino hadn’t been nice since 2018. However each had the aptitude to excel – they already had of their careers, and never in a fluky means. The best environment, the proper protection, a pinch of luck right here and there: It wasn’t onerous to see how these two offers may work out. Likewise, Montas might need been down in 2024, however I’ve no bother speaking myself into an improved 2025.
Montas has by no means been a pure bat-missing strikeout machine. When he was at his greatest in Oakland, he did all the pieces simply nicely sufficient for the full bundle to work. He struck out extra batters than common, walked fewer than common, saved the ball within the ballpark, and went six or so innings a begin. Nobody would mistake him for Cy Younger, however doing a bunch of issues nicely added as much as an ERA within the mid-3s. That’s a transparent playoff starter, precisely what the Mets want.
The model of Montas that Cincinnati acquired in 2024 was nothing just like the Oakland one. As you would possibly anticipate from somebody coming off a very misplaced season, his command was scattershot. His fastball misplaced its customary journey, thanks partially to a decrease launch level. He labored from behind too usually and acquired into jams ceaselessly. That’s not unparalleled for good pitchers getting back from lengthy layoffs, however it was sufficient for the Reds to ship him off to Milwaukee on the commerce deadline.
Fortunately, Montas improved because the season wore on. 4-seamer isn’t working prefer it used to? No massive deal. He more and more turned to his sinker in opposition to right-handed batters. The brand new arm angle works nicely with a sinker/slider strategy, and Montas additionally throws a pointy cutter that sits between the 2 and makes pitch recognition harder.
Towards lefties, Montas leaned on the pitch that helped him get away within the first place: a splitter that eats opposite-handed hitters alive. He’s by no means been significantly good at touchdown the splitter for a strike, however it’s the type of pitch that generates both a whiff or a ball virtually each time he throws it. Combine in some four-seamers and cutters, and also you’ve acquired a three-pitch combine that provides you a shot at getting lefties out – at the very least in concept.
In actuality, lefty batters are nonetheless a weak spot for him. His splitter is sweet and all, however it’s an out pitch, not a foundational providing. His four-seamer’s new, diminished form isn’t scaring anybody. His cutter doesn’t work fairly as nicely when it’s not mixing with a much bigger slider. Lefties crushed Montas final yr; they launched 16 homers in 341 plate appearances, with grim peripheral statistics besides.
Platoon splits are notoriously noisy in one-year samples, however this one doesn’t really feel like a fluke. A decrease launch level and revamped pitch combine have modified Montas’s strategy in opposition to righties for the higher. The identical modifications to his sport have made it harder to get lefties out. However a number of tweaks to his plan in opposition to opposite-handed batters may make the entire thing work out fairly nicely.
That wipeout splitter? It’s roughly ineffective when Montas falls behind within the depend. Some early strikes would alter the stability of energy there considerably, and I anticipate that to be a magnet for him this season. One other yr’s distance from shoulder surgical procedure ought to assistance on this entrance; loads of pitchers look slightly sloppy as they get their toes again below themselves, and Montas has demonstrated the power to get forward and keep forward in years previous.
That’s the nitty gritty of the signing. Now for the broad strokes. The Mets are going to be spending a ton of cash this offseason a method or one other. They’ve holes to fill and money to spend now that 9 figures price of wage has come off their books after the 2024 season. Montas isn’t going to be essentially the most distinguished free agent they signal — Mets followers certainly hope they’ll get Juan Soto, maybe with a aspect of Corbin Burnes — however both means, he may find yourself being an vital piece of subsequent yr’s crew. New York in all probability needs so as to add two or three starters behind Kodai Senga this offseason; Montas is merely the primary one to signal. The Mets nonetheless have house to get an ace and one other innings eater, and with Montas in tow, the following innings eater they signal doesn’t essentially must be somebody they’d need for his or her playoff rotation.
Montas acquired greater than I projected for him, which brings me to my subsequent takeaway: The marketplace for beginning pitchers is sizzling proper now. To date, 5 of this offseason’s six multi-year free agent offers have gone to starters. Every of the 5 pitchers have overwhelmed each the group’s and my projections. Perhaps groups are getting extra snug with the longer term state of rights funds. Perhaps an enhancing financial image has modified their spending outlook. Perhaps they similar to the crop of free brokers this yr extra. However regardless of the case, spending has been working sizzling, and this deal is simply additional affirmation.
I believe that increased spending is prone to persist in two explicit methods: beginning pitchers and top-tier place gamers. Market forces proceed to depress the compensation for mid-level hitters, and I don’t see that altering anytime quickly. The competitors for these gamers is solely much less intense; there are extra substitutes out there there than in every other nook of free company. Starters who may give you 150 innings, alternatively? There aren’t sufficient of them to go round, and if many groups are feeling higher about their monetary state of affairs, the value of pitching will go up.
Lastly, this deal seems like a terrific one for Montas himself. If he has a tough season, or if there’s some type of financial downturn, both particularly inside baseball or extra broadly, a two-year deal is nice. If he’s the following member of the Nice Mets Rejuvenation Squad, spectacular! He can decide out and money in. That type of flexibility is price greater than an additional million or two in ensures.
That’s the very last thing that Montas has in widespread with the opposite pitchers we’ve seen signal contracts over the previous month: The Mets made it price his whereas to signal early. I believe that is simply good enterprise on their half. Like I discussed, they’ve a prolonged buying record to get by way of this winter, and checking off the primary merchandise early is vital, even when it means a marginal overpay. That’s how you find yourself with this deal for this man, and with each the crew and the participant pleased with the outcome.
