FedEx St. Jude Championship: Betting odds, preview, predictions

In the event you ever exit for a stroll in downtown Memphis, chances are high you’ll encounter B.B. King’s Blues Membership on Beale Avenue, the spot made well-known by the legend in its identify and the home band that performs the very best blues on this planet. Little question that B.B. King’s “The Thrill is Gone” echoes all through the two-floor membership every day, with patrons, restaurant goers, and music followers alike roaring to this most well-known track.

However the thrill is rarely gone at TPC Southwind, the course internet hosting this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship roughly half-hour east of B.B. King’s former hangout.

It’s a golf course that requires precision from tee to inexperienced as hassle lurks throughout. Water comes into play on 11 of the 18 holes, which swallows up numerous golf balls and ruins loads of rounds. The truth is, gamers have discovered the water extra typically at TPC Southwind than at some other golf course since 2003. Sure, that features TPC Sawgrass, the host of the Gamers Championship. But this Southeast Memphis course yields loads of birdies, with 15-under being the successful rating on this par-70 in each 2022 and 2023.

So it’s no surprise that the final two years have produced thrilling playoff finishes, with Will Zalatoris and Lucas Glover successful, respectively. The fun is really by no means gone at TPC Southwind; it’s at all times right here to remain, yr in and yr out.

Photograph by Andy Lyons/Getty Pictures

Odds for the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship:

Listed here are the newest betting odds for gamers to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship, courtesy of DraftKings:

Scottie Scheffler +330

Xander Schauffele +800

Rory McIlroy +1000

Collin Morikawa +1200

Ludvig Åberg +2000

Patrick Cantlay +2200

Hideki Matsuyama +2500

Tommy Fleetwood +2500

Corey Conners +3000

Viktor Hovland +3000

Justin Thomas +3500

Sungjae Im +3500

Russell Henley +3500

Tony Finau +4000

Tom Kim +4000

Cameron Younger +4500

Billy Horschel +4500

Aaron Rai +4500

Sam Burns +4500

Sahith Theegala +4500

Adam Scott +5500

Shane Lowry +5500

Photograph by James Gilbert/PGA Tour through Getty Pictures

Predictions, Picks, Perception

High 10 Picks for TPC Southwind:

Corey Conners — High 10 +230

Corey Conners has been one of the crucial constant gamers on the PGA Tour all season. He has made 20-of-20 cuts, which embrace 11 top-25 finishes. His finest consequence got here in his native Canada, the place he completed solo sixth on the RBC Canadian Open. He additionally has two different top-10 finishes.

His fourth top-10 results of the yr will come this week at TPC Southwind, because of his large ball putting and strong accuracy off the tee. He additionally has performed this course nicely earlier than. Final yr, he posted back-to-back 65s over the weekend to complete solo sixth. This yr, Conners arrives in Memphis ranked thirtieth within the FedEx Cup standings, so a powerful end this week will take the strain off subsequent week in Denver. The highest 30 gamers after the BMW Championship qualify for the Tour Championship, so Conners will really feel motivated to play nicely.

Aaron Rai — High 10 +275

Misplaced within the Matt Kuchar-Wyndham Championship Monday end debacle is that Aaron Rai, quietly one of many higher gamers on tour this season, truly gained the match. Rai is fourth on the PGA Tour in complete strokes gained and second in driving accuracy proportion, discovering the green almost 72% of the time. It’s a must to put the ball in play off the tee at TPC Southwind, and barely anyone has achieved that higher this season than Rai.

However his spectacular metrics don’t cease there. Rai finds the greens in regulation at a 71.7% clip, good for fourth on tour. He additionally has the fourth-best precise scoring common and avoids bogeys like few others. His tempo of play has actually been a difficulty and nicely documented, however his latest outcomes converse for themselves. Exterior of The Open, the place he tied for seventy fifth, Rai has not completed exterior the highest 20 since late Could, a span of six occasions that features the U.S. Open. So, contemplating Rai’s latest success and the truth that he stays out of hassle, which this course has loads of, the double-glover will lurk on the leaderboard as soon as once more.

Photograph by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Pictures

Hideki Matsuyama — High 10 +180

Hideki Matsuyama arrives in Memphis with some misery after a theft in London noticed his caddy and coach return to Japan. Thieves stole their passports, however fortunately for Matsuyama’s, his was salvaged, which means the Eighth-ranked participant within the FedEx Cup Playoffs can nonetheless tee it up this week in Memphis.

The 2021 Masters Champion most just lately gained the bronze medal in Paris and he has had a powerful season total. Matsuyama ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, a testomony to his capability to restrict errors. He solely makes bogey 13.33% of the time, good for 18th on tour. However the man from Japan has struggled with the flat stick this season, which has prevented him from contending at occasions. However, Matsuyama completed solo sixteenth a yr in the past and misplaced to Abraham Ancer in a playoff at TPC Southwind in 2021. He’ll contend as soon as once more this week regardless of unlucky off-course circumstances.

Justin Thomas — High 10 +260

Two years in the past, when Thomas final made the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the two-time main winner tied for thirteenth at TPC Southwind, regardless of rating 62nd of the 70-player discipline in strokes gained placing. His flat stick has befuddled him once more in 2024, as he presently ranks 104th on the PGA Tour in complete placing. But, Thomas is twelfth on tour in strokes gained tee-to-green, proof that he has straightened out his swing considerably this season.

I like that development to proceed this week, with Thomas vaulting himself again into rivalry on a course the place he has had loads of success. Along with his sturdy end a yr in the past, Thomas gained the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational by three strokes in 2020. Familiarity and luxury assist and Thomas has each of these going for him this week.

A pair of High 5s we love:

Patrick Cantlay — High 5 +400

Regardless of not rising victorious up to now in 2024, and never having his finest season total, Cantlay has nonetheless managed to amass sufficient FedEx Cup factors to reach in Memphis ranked eleventh within the standings. He’s nonetheless probably the greatest gamers on this planet and might win any match on any course, so it might shock no person if he did so at TPC Southwind this week.

In spite of everything, Cantlay misplaced to Glover in a playoff in Memphis final yr. He discovered the water to the left of the green on the dogleg left par-4 18th, which sealed his destiny. However this yr, Cantlay is trending in the precise course. Since lacking the lower on the Memorial in early June, Cantlay tied for third on the U.S. Open, tied for fifth on the Vacationers Championship in Connecticut, and most just lately completed T-25 at Royal Troon. That latest development, coupled with the truth that Cantlay will tee it up feeling refreshed, leads us to imagine he’ll end among the many top-5 and contend for the title once more.

Photograph by Ben Jared/PGA Tour through Getty Pictures

Rory McIlroy — High 5 +180

Rory McIlroy has had a strong season, which has included a pair of wins in New Orleans and Charlotte. However his 2024 will probably be remembered for what might have been. He got here agonizingly near successful the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, shedding by one to Bryson DeChambeau. McIlroy most just lately vied for a podium end in Paris, however a grasping strategy late in his remaining spherical stored him at bay.

But, McIlroy nonetheless has six top-5 finishes this season. He tied for third at this occasion a yr in the past, taking pictures a final-round 65 to complete one stroke out of the playoff. McIlroy additionally has three different top-12 finishes on this course all through his profession, proof that he feels snug with this format. As such, McIlroy will lean on his beautiful driving capabilities to provide him plentiful alternatives this week, which can translate into his seventh top-5 of the yr.

Winners:

Collin Morikawa — Win +1200

Since The Masters, Collin Morikawa has been probably the greatest gamers on the planet, as he has seen his ball-striking enhance to near-elite type. He has six top-10s and has not come near lacking the lower since then, though he did flip in a disappointing effort in Paris, the place he tied for twenty fourth on the Males’s Olympic Golf Competitors.

Nonetheless, Morikawa has achieved every part however win this yr and appears due for a breakthrough victory. He has had success on this course earlier than, which leads me to imagine this might lastly be his week. Two years in the past, he tied for fifth on the FedEx St. Jude Championship, ending 4 strokes out of a playoff. Then, final yr, Morikawa completed T-13. However Morikawa has not posted an over-par rating at TPC Southwind over the previous two years, a powerful accomplishment contemplating all of the hazard it possesses. So, if he can get some putts to fall, be careful as a result of Morikawa will undoubtedly give himself loads of alternatives.

Photograph by James Gilbert/PGA Tour through Getty Pictures

Scottie Scheffler — Win +330

Shock! Scottie Scheffler arrives as the favourite but once more. He has had one unimaginable season, a yr wherein he has gained Masters inexperienced and Olympics gold, amongst many different occasions. His 9-under 62 through the remaining spherical in Paris will dwell among the many finest rounds in golf historical past endlessly because the World No. 1 proved why he’s the very best. So, who says he can’t replicate that once more this week in Memphis?

In spite of everything, Scheffler performs as conservatively as anybody, not often making a mistake. When he does, he often bounces again with a birdie, and the numbers present that. After dropping a shot, Scheffler rebounds with a birdie one-third of the time, rating first on tour—Scheffler’s favourite stat. However he additionally ranks first on tour in birdie or higher proportion and bogey avoidance. Go determine. So, since Scheffler yields no return by ending within the high 5 or 10, you would possibly as nicely choose him to win. And it might shock no person if he does, contemplating the astonishing yr he has had.

Jack Milko is a golf employees author for SB Nation’s Enjoying By means of. You should definitely take a look at @_PlayingThrough for extra golf protection. You possibly can comply with him on Twitter @jack_milko as nicely.