FanGraphs Energy Rankings: August 26–September 1

As we enter the ultimate month of the season, there are a handful of golf equipment on the sting of the playoff image whose play of late has made a couple of of the postseason races pretty thrilling because the 2024 marketing campaign winds down.

This season, we’ve revamped our energy rankings. The outdated mannequin wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given group’s efficiency all through the season, and by September, it was giving far an excessive amount of weight to a group’s full physique of labor with out taking into consideration how the membership had modified, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve determined to construct our energy rankings mannequin utilizing a modified Elo score system. Should you’re conversant in chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports activities part, you’ll know that Elo is a chic resolution that measures groups’ relative power and could be very reactive to current efficiency.

To keep away from overweighting current outcomes throughout the season, we weigh every group’s uncooked Elo rank utilizing our coinflip playoff odds (particularly, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh these towards the uncooked Elo rating, rising in weight because the season progresses to a most of 25%). As the perfect and worst groups type themselves out all through the season, they’ll filter to the highest and backside of the rankings, whereas the train will stay reactive to scorching streaks or chilly snaps.

First up are the complete rankings, introduced in a sortable desk. Beneath that, I’ve grouped the groups into tiers with feedback on a handful of golf equipment. You’ll discover that the official ordinal rankings don’t all the time match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping groups collectively — however typically, the ordering is constant. One factor to notice: The playoff odds listed within the tables beneath are our customary Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds which might be used within the rating system.

Notice: All stats, together with group data, are up to date via Sunday’s video games. The data included within the feedback are present as of Tuesday morning.

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The Dodgers completed August with a sequence win over the Orioles and began off September with an enormous sequence win over the Diamondbacks, their closest division rival. After all, all eyes are on Shohei Ohtani as he chases the legendary 50-50 season. He added three residence runs and three stolen bases to his totals final week, then swiped one other three baggage on Monday.

As for the Diamondbacks, their 14-3 victory on Sunday was a pleasant palate cleanser after a reasonably dangerous week that noticed them win simply certainly one of their earlier 5 video games. Nonetheless, the Dodgers received the final chuckle, taking the sequence with an 11-6 blowout on Monday. These losses to Los Angeles in all probability put the Snakes’ long-shot hopes of profitable the division to mattress, however they’re nonetheless nicely forward within the NL Wild Card race.

The Astros proceed to tug away within the AL West standings after profitable 5 in a row final week, together with a four-game sweep of the Royals at residence. Regardless of having had a lot hassle with their pitching workers for a big portion of the season, their rotation has actually stabilized over the past month or so. Yusei Kikuchi has been glorious, Hunter Brown has sorted out his points, Justin Verlander is wholesome once more, and Spencer Arrighetti seems like he’s taken an enormous step ahead. We must always have by no means doubted Houston.

The Padres clambered again right into a digital tie with the Diamondbacks after a 4-3 week. Manny Machado was the focus of their offense final week, gathering 10 hits and three residence runs. He’s been far more productive not too long ago after a reasonably gradual begin to the season. With Fernando Tatis Jr. activated from the IL on Monday, Machado and the Friars are getting some vital reinforcements at simply the precise time.

The Brewers proceed to chug alongside atop the NL Central. They received 5 of their seven video games final week and at the moment personal the most important division lead in baseball.

With their walk-off victory over the Braves on Sunday securing a sequence win, the Phillies all however locked up the NL East division title. They’re seven video games up on Atlanta and have began enjoying a lot better the previous few weeks after their midsummer stoop. The highest seed within the NL continues to be up for grabs and their schedule over the following few weeks seems fairly tender.

The Yankees misplaced a little bit of floor to the Orioles final week after dropping each of their sequence to the Nationals and Cardinals. They did activate Anthony Rizzo off the IL, and Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt shouldn’t be that far behind; these reinforcements ought to assist throughout the stretch run. Surprisingly, they’ve opted to depart Jasson Domínguez within the minors in the intervening time.

The Guardians and Royals have been locked in a back-and-forth battle over the previous week. Kansas Metropolis struck the primary blow final week, profitable three in a row in Cleveland — the group truly held a share of the AL Central lead on Tuesday — earlier than dropping the ultimate recreation of the four-game sequence on Wednesday after which getting swept by the Astros over the weekend. The 2 AL Central rivals had been again at it on Monday, with the Guardians rising victorious; that pushed their lead over the Royals again as much as 4.5 video games. Cleveland’s lineup has not too long ago benefited from some further energy within the type of Jhonkensy Noel, whereas nonetheless having fun with an MVP-caliber season from José Ramírez and a 100 RBI season from Josh Naylor.

The Twins haven’t been in a position to make the most of the Guardians’ ongoing struggles and the Royals’ current slide in a large open AL Central race. They had been swept by the Braves final week earlier than profitable their first sequence in two weeks over the weekend. And regardless of all their woes, the Royals remade their bench final week, claiming Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman off waivers and buying and selling for Yuli Gurriel.

With the NL East all however out of attain, the Braves should now flip their consideration to holding off the Mets and Cubs within the NL Wild Card race. They usually’ll must do it with out three of their greatest hitters within the lineup, although it’s doable Ozzie Albies shall be again from his wrist harm earlier than the season ends. Not like final 12 months, it’ll must be Atlanta’s pitching workers that carries the group to the playoffs and past. Chris Sale is the favourite to win the NL Cy Younger, Reynaldo López has shaken off a minor elbow harm, and Spencer Schwellenbach has been a revelation this summer time.

The Mets and Cubs are lifeless set on making the NL Wild Card race thrilling this month. New York has received 5 straight and is sitting only a half recreation behind the Braves, whereas Chicago simply had a six-game win streak snapped on Monday and are 3.5 video games again. The Cubs offense has exploded for an astounding variety of runs throughout this scorching streak; they scored double-digit runs 3 times final week and have scored 7.25 runs per recreation over their final 16 contests.

The Cubs aren’t the one Midwest group making a stunning run in the direction of the playoffs: the Tigers have received 14 of their final 20 video games and have launched themselves onto the perimeter of the AL Wild Card chase, leapfrogging the Mariners and sitting simply behind the Pink Sox. Spencer Torkelson has appeared much more harmful on the plate since being recalled from Triple-A a couple of weeks in the past, posting a 175 wRC+ in 15 video games since making it again to the large leagues.

Whereas Detroit rises up the standings, the Pink Sox and Mariners are each limping in the direction of the end line. Boston misplaced a weekend sequence to these climbing Tigers and Seattle blew a sequence to the hapless Angels. Each groups misplaced of their video games on Monday, too.

Despite the fact that they’re nicely behind within the NL Wild Card race, the Cardinals confirmed how harmful they are often as a spoiler final week; they cut up a four-game sequence towards the Padres and took two of three from the Yankees, scoring 14 runs and gathering 21 hits on Sunday. They’re additionally dedicated to giving Jordan Walker common enjoying time in September, a transfer that might pay dividends sooner or later if he can determine issues out on the huge league degree.

The Pirates made the dramatic determination to maneuver Oneil Cruz from shortstop to heart discipline final week. It’s an fascinating gambit. Making the transfer now provides Pittsburgh a month to see how Cruz handles the place beneath the brilliant lights of normal season play as a substitute of making an attempt to make this transition throughout spring coaching.

Final week on this column, I wrote that the Reds had made some constructive progress in the direction of breaking out of their rebuilding cycle. That very same day, Dan Szymborski authored an article breaking down Cincinnati’s future; he argued that the Reds are caught in a bizarre limbo the place they’ve loads of younger expertise however little motivation to spend to essentially improve their roster within the locations the place they lack that younger expertise. Their current chilly streak hasn’t helped the vibes both. On August 14, they had been a recreation beneath .500, however 12 losses over their following 18 video games now has them seven video games beneath .500 and primarily wanting like they did on the finish of final season.

Should you’re in search of a darkish horse group that might play spoiler in September, look no additional than the Rockies. All however certainly one of their opponents this month is both in the course of a playoff race or on the perimeter of postseason rivalry. Is Colorado adequate to truly impact these races? We’ll see. It’s all the time robust to play the Rockies at residence, and the Cubs, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers all have sequence lined up in Coors Discipline later this month.

The White Sox misplaced their eleventh recreation in a row yesterday, giving them their third double-digit dropping streak of the season.