You may be a bit stunned to be taught simply how uncommon 3-0 counts are. As of Tuesday morning, there had been 155,045 plate appearances within the 2024 season, and simply 5,852 of them, or 3.8%, had gone 3-0. That signifies that every crew ought to count on to see a 3-0 rely simply 1.4 occasions per recreation. That’s an entire lot fewer than I anticipated. Due to that shortage, if any person involves you with statistics a few batter’s splits in 3-0 counts, you may most likely low cost them as a small pattern dimension aberration. That’s all of the extra true when you think about that, ignoring intentional walks, 3-0 counts flip into walks roughly 60% of the time (which in turns signifies that they account for roughly 29% of all walks). As soon as the batter will get forward 3-0, there are only a few precise at-bats going down. So that you don’t need to take this severely should you don’t need to, however as soon as he reaches a 3-0 rely, Aaron Decide is placing collectively the best season in recorded historical past. I do know that’s not precisely a surprising lede – Aaron Decide is sweet at one thing; movie at eleven – however it’s enjoyable, so hear me out.
On this case, recorded historical past begins in 1988. That’s the earliest 12 months that Stathead enables you to pull count-based splits. These splits are barely muddied by the truth that so far as Stathead is anxious, 3-0 counts embody intentional walks. (That’s comprehensible, since till very lately, intentional walks nonetheless required pitchers to throw 4 precise balls. Nonetheless, it positively skews the numbers; it doesn’t make a ton of sense to incorporate PAs the place the batter by no means noticed a aggressive pitch in rely splits.) This season, Decide has been walked deliberately 18 occasions, however 4 of these passes solely occurred as soon as the pitcher had fallen behind 3-0, so we’ll go away them and strip out the opposite 14.
That leaves Decide with 43 PAs that went to a 3-0 rely, second in baseball behind Juan Soto, who has 54 (which additionally provides the Yankees much more 3-0 counts than every other crew in baseball). In these PAs, Decide has walked 35 occasions, for a stroll fee of 81.4%. That’s how terrifying Aaron Decide is: Although he ranks second on this cut up by PAs, pitchers are so disinclined to throw him a strike that he’s tied for seventy fifth in ABs.
So how did these eight at-bats go? Nicely, they went popup, single, homer, homer, homer, strikeout, groundout, homer. Should you’re preserving rating at residence, that might be 5-for-8 with 4 homers, good for a 2.125 slugging proportion. I went again into Stathead and tried to seek out the gamers with one of the best 3-0 splits in historical past. (For these splits, I wasn’t in a position to separate out intentional walks, however since we’re speaking about a number of the greatest hitting performances of the final 4 many years, they’re most likely not skewing the on-base percentages that a lot anyway.) Since 1988, Decide is the solely participant to get forward 3-0 no less than 30 occasions and to run a slugging proportion above 2.000 in these plate appearances. Yordan Alvarez got here closest; in 2019, the Houston slugger received forward 3-0 in 23 PAs, walked in 20 of them, and homered in all three of the opposite others. That’s patently absurd, and it makes for a tidy 4.000 slugging proportion.
This season, as soon as he reaches 3-0, Decide has a slash line of .625/.930/2.125, with an OPS of three.055 (3.072 if we rely his intentional walks). Amongst gamers with no less than 35 PAs in a 3-0 rely, that’s one of the best OPS in recorded historical past. Subsequent on the listing is 2004 Barry Bonds. As you may recall, 2004 Barry Bonds was fairly good. He ran a 233 wRC+ and hit 45 residence runs in simply 373 at-bats, as a result of he received walked practically 38% of the time. That season, Bonds ran a 2.760 OPS after he received forward within the rely 3-0, practically 300 factors beneath Decide.
Right here’s the craziest a part of the story. Decide has had eight at-bats with a 3-0 rely this season. Since 1988, should you set a minimal of eight at-bats with a 3-0 rely, he’s second all-time in each slugging and OPS. Who’s in first, and what 12 months did they accomplish this feat? That will be Kyle Tucker, this season. The Houston proper fielder, who has been out since June 5 with a mysterious shin contusion that was lately upgraded to a much-less-mysterious full-on fracture, has gotten forward 3-0 in 20 plate appearances this 12 months. He’s walked 11 occasions and gone 6-for-9 with 5 homers and a double. That’s good for a 2.444 slugging proportion.
As soon as once more, the numbers we’re speaking about listed here are minuscule. Within the case of Decide, we’re speaking about simply eight at-bats. He might fly out twice with a 3-0 rely tonight, and swiftly he’d be a pathetic 5-for-10 with 4 residence runs and each phrase that I’ve written can be utterly irrelevant. (Be aware to Aaron Decide: Please don’t do that, I encourage of you.) However these tiny numbers additionally converse to type of numbers Aaron Decide is placing up, once more. He’s been so unreal that it’s exhausting to discover a cut up the place he isn’t on the high of the league. The numbers are tiny, however it’s not an accident that he’s discovered himself in so many 3-0 counts or that he’s walked greater than 4 occasions out of 5 as soon as he received there. He’s operating a 96th-percentile chase fee and a A centesimal-percentile hard-hit fee. No surprise we are able to’t cease mentioning Barry Bonds. Seasons just like the one Decide is having don’t come alongside all that usually, so let’s make certain we get pleasure from ourselves, whatever the pattern dimension.
Many because of FanGraph member Brian Reinhart for suggesting this subject and Stathead’s Katie Sharp for serving to me decouple intentional walks from this information the place potential.
