| 12:01 |
: Good midday from chilly Philadelphia, I’m coming to you from a lodge room awaiting the arrival of a bunch of my hometown buds for a marriage.
|
| 12:02 |
: You would possibly already know the Cubs checklist went reside at present, please take pleasure in.
|
| 12:02 |
: Let’s get it.
|
| 12:02 |
: When would possibly we count on to see the 2025 MLB Draft class to be placed on The Board?
|
| 12:03 |
: Most likely prospect week. Travis and I’ve an enormous rating lurking within the background however he wrote a bunch of the experiences and is about to be employed by a group. They could wish to sequester his opinions and I actually received’t move his work off as my very own, so a number of the faculty class’ experiences must be rewritten (which is okay, it’s for an awesome cause).
|
| 12:04 |
: when are you going to be throwing the J15 prospects on the board
|
| 12:05 |
: Shortly after the brand new yr.
|
| 12:05 |
: Springs, most likely. He’s at the very least been wholesome right here and there, Boyle has by no means thrown strikes.
|
| 12:05 |
: What’s Konnor Griffin’s upside? Might he shoot up the rankings if he performs effectively in his first season?
|
| 12:06 |
: Yeah, if the contact piece is robust out the gate that can make people really feel extra snug that the instruments will play.
|
| 12:06 |
: So one group will spend their total worldwide 2025 bonus pool on one FV=60. What the prospect that one other group will get extra worth with their 2025 bonus pool on conventional unfold the cash round?
|
| 12:07 |
: The hit price on gamers on this market is low sufficient that I’d most likely simply take Sasaki at max quantity and roll with it. I are inclined to agree that spreading out your pool is best than giving 3+ mil to 1 man and calling it a day, however that is likely to be as a result of I’m coming off the Cubs checklist.
|
| 12:08 |
: With the Nats (or one other group say LAA or Seattle) doing so effectively within the draft lottery, would this make them much less more likely to signal a QO man, since these groups (esp. the large market ones) would lose a few of that lottery benefit within the type of bonus pool area and a decide?
|
| 12:09 |
: I hadn’t considered that, however yeah. It could change the way in which I checked out my draft planning and spending if I leapt like that within the lottery, and within the circumstances the place different exercise impacts your draft scenario you’d wish to extra fastidiously take into account these impacts now that you simply decide 3 or no matter.
|
| 12:09 |
: It may also rely in your perceived high quality of the category
|
| 12:10 |
: Which of Herz, Parker, and Irwin are you most shopping for as a legit center rotation man for the Nats?
|
| 12:10 |
: These are all backend/lengthy aid guys for me. Irwin, for me, has the most effective probability to throw strikes and eat innings over the lengthy haul. Parker has already been higher than I anticipated, although.
|
| 12:12 |
: Hello Eric — comfortable holidays. What are your ideas on Yairo Padilla? I didn’t even recall the Cardinals signing him, and now I’m seeing his title all over the place as a possible escape 5 instrument SS/CFer. thanks!
|
| 12:13 |
: Glad holidays, Bobby. He solely exists on a spreadsheet to me proper now, although St. Louis’ DSL performs the Mets and Phillies sufficient that there’s a number of Padilla tape on-line that shall be consumed previous to the Playing cards checklist getting printed…
|
| 12:13 |
: To that finish, he’s an above-average contact hitter with well-below common energy.
|
| 12:14 |
: 15% onerous hit price isn’t nice even for his age, the contact stuff is sweet however nothing loopy (78% contact price)
|
| 12:14 |
: Interested by how you bought to a 50 FV for Alcantara when his hit shall be at finest a 35. That’s mainly unplayable–actually not in an on a regular basis position.
|
| 12:15 |
: I assume I’m curious what you’d placed on Tyler O’Neill and Colten Cowser’s hit instrument, simply off the highest. Huge energy and plus protection, higher really feel for in-zone contact than Denzel Clarke (as I wrote up Clarke for the A’s checklist, these two had been good apples-to-apples comps)
|
| 12:16 |
: I’ve this man Jasson. The projections appear modest however I’ve a sense. Ought to I belief the sensation or the projections?
|
| 12:16 |
: I’ve had a 50 on Dominguez for some time, that’s a median common. He’s high quality, not a messiah.
|
| 12:16 |
: Are you shocked the A’s haven’t taken on a foul contract or two in trades with a prospect sweetener?
|
| 12:17 |
: I believe that’s a flex reserved for the large market daddies. If the A’s add vital payroll, it needs to be to make the large league group higher.
|
| 12:18 |
: Wyatt Sanford or Wyatt Langford? These guys remind me of one another for some cause. Can’t put my finger on it…
|
| 12:18 |
: You’re the man who drafted the improper Adrian Peterson
|
| 12:18 |
: Is the 30/35 fielding grade on Matt Shaw a typo? The textual content reads extra like a 40/50 or 40/55. Simply attempting to get a greater really feel for the way the textual content interprets to the grading. Thanks!
|
| 12:18 |
: Oh sure it’s, thanks for that
|
| 12:18 |
: lemme repair that asap
|
| 12:19 |
: (sound of pots and pans clanging)
|
| 12:20 |
: Okay fastened, thanks
|
| 12:21 |
: Adam Mazur have / develop sufficient stuff to be greater than a #5? Appears kinda meh for the time being, however the Marlins apparently made some tweaks after getting him on the deadline final yr.
|
| 12:21 |
: Seemed tremendous weak to me throughout his large league outings, I’m fairly fearful.
|
| 12:21 |
: why aren’t there anymore large free brokers coming from Cuba like there have been within the 2010s? Appears like for about 5-10 years, there have been a number of Cuban free brokers signing 8-figure offers every winter after which all of the sudden it simply stopped
|
| 12:23 |
: I wrote about this in a Hardball Occasions annual occurring…uh…seven years in the past? We went from older guys like Livan and El Duque and Jose Contreras, to guys coming over of their prime like Cespedes, to guys coming over of their early twenties (Arozarena, Robert, Yordan) to them signing proper at 16 in a number of circumstances…
|
| 12:25 |
: The expertise there was finite, it was an under-tapped “useful resource” (blech) that has now been tapped all the way in which, I suppose.
|
| 12:25 |
: Now that the Giants signed Adames and Fitzgerald seems to play second, what’s the outlook on Luciano?
|
| 12:26 |
: RF, been that manner for some time imo.
|
| 12:26 |
: When will Aidan Miller realistically be prepared? Do you assume he elements into the Phillies (rumored) willingness to hear on Bohm?
|
| 12:27 |
: Yah know, I believe it would. I actually don’t like the thought of transferring Bohm, however I do assume Miller is a stud and might be “prepared” pretty quickly.
|
| 12:28 |
: You’re on the clock Eric. Who’re you selecting? Jamie Arnold, Bremner, or Seth Hernandez?
|
| 12:28 |
: Bremner, then Sethy
|
| 12:28 |
: Is there consensus on what led to guys like Cal Raleigh or Austin Wells turning into stellar framers? It’s not unusual for me to see guys with crummy commencement grades stage up within the majors, but it surely’s clearly not luck.
|
| 12:29 |
: Good query, Yanks have good catcher dev avenue cred, Cal I suppose I’d attribute it to dimension/energy/work. You’re proper that at numerous factors (particularly with Wells) these guys had been thought-about unhealthy defenders. Cal, iirc, was extra divisive and a few people thought he framed effectively at FSU (quants, i wish to say).
|
| 12:30 |
: Would you set Jasson in CF Bellinger in LF or vice versa
|
| 12:31 |
: I might let the younger OFs, the Ozzies, Ben Rice and I assume Grisham compete for spots and transfer Bellinger wherever you have to with a purpose to have the most effective lineup.
|
| 12:32 |
: Do you assume Murakami is value sitting out the Alonso or Walker negotiations to attend for and signal, assuming a group can get him? Clearly Vlad shall be far and away greatest FA at 1B subsequent offseason barring extension, however there’s solely one among him
|
| 12:32 |
: Nah, an excessive amount of hit instrument threat, I’d take Walker forward of the opposite two.
|
| 12:33 |
: Any up to date ideas on Termarr Johnson following the AFL?
|
| 12:33 |
: Nonetheless love how his palms work, assume they’re in the proper place typically sufficient for him to get to energy and play 2B on a regular basis. Gonna Ok rather a lot, he’s not Cano or something like that.
|
| 12:34 |
: Dobbins and Fitts
|
| 12:34 |
: In your Cubs checklist, no Alexander Canario, regardless that he nonetheless has rookie standing…..are you that low on him, or do you take into account him “graduated” anyway?
|
| 12:34 |
: He doesn’t have rookie standing anymore
|
| 12:35 |
: Baseball Ref has develop into unreliable for rookie standing. It’s improper about Kilian, too.
|
| 12:35 |
: This has been true for the final couple of years.
|
| 12:36 |
: Go depend Canario’s roster days, he exceeds 45 in both Might or July, fairly comfortably over.
|
| 12:36 |
: Johnson appears tailor made for that
|
| 12:36 |
: Are there sure traits (or statistics) of productive hitters at AAA that make you not consider their success at that stage will carry to the majors? Ok price of round 30% seems like one, curious when you’ve got others.
|
| 12:37 |
: Splits versus 94+ mph fastballs
|
| 12:38 |
: The Pirates don’t really feel like they’ve a adequate scenario for being in yr 6 of a rebuild, proper? What are your ideas?
|
| 12:39 |
: Skenes has been their solely biggity large large hit atop the draft, robust to essentially ascend when the others are underwhelming. A few of that has needed to do with a given draft class and lack of superior choices, however groups liek Baltimore ascend as a result of they hit Adley/Gunnar in the identical draft, and that hasn’t occurred right here.
|
| 12:39 |
: Do you assume there is a matter with scouting or org philosophy that’s inflicting the Cubs to overlook a lot on all these high-dollar IFA SS? Or only a string of unhealthy luck? Little bit of each?
|
| 12:40 |
: A few of each, maybe not utilizing all of the instruments accessible to evaluate hit instrument stability. It’s tremendous onerous whenever you’re attempting to guess whether or not the man dealing with 82 mph fastballs more often than not can hit 92.
|
| 12:41 |
: I used to be clicking by the farm system rankings and altering the report yr, and I observed the greenback worth of sure play types-grades doesn’t change (e.g. $112m for a 70-grade bat at the same time as I toggle to completely different years). Are these values as of the final time this was studied, or are they up to date annually/occasionally and the quantity displayed is simply all the time the newest valuation? Love the content material – thanks for your entire work!
|
| 12:41 |
: From the lone time Craig Edwards did the valuations. It might most likely use a re-up, that’s 5 years in the past now?
|
| 12:41 |
: Is Enmanuel Valdez nonetheless intriguing to you in any manner? He looks like he has the power to hit the ball onerous and hit the ball steadily however idk!
|
| 12:41 |
: He’s a type of guys who I didn’t like and I let others persuade me he was good, and I remorse it.
|
| 12:41 |
: What does Jacob Melton must iron out to be an element within the Astros OF in 2025? They don’t appear to be prioritizing OF additions submit Tucker deal and the present scenario is skinny to say the least.
|
| 12:42 |
: Darkhorse ROY candidate
|
| 12:42 |
: How do the contact charges look on Emil Morales after his big DSL season?
|
| 12:42 |
: maintain please
|
| 12:43 |
: Beneath common
|
| 12:43 |
: 68% contact, nutty energy for his age, although
|
| 12:43 |
: If he improves his protection. What’s Agustin Ramirez ceiling?
|
| 12:43 |
: prime 10 catcher
|
| 12:43 |
: I actually fear that man is gonna crack open somebody’s head together with his backswing
|
| 12:44 |
: I’ve been listening to rather a lot (and have learn you say the identical) about right-right energy hitting first basemen being a troublesome profile. I’m curious why that’s the case? Is it strictly due to the platoon drawback?
|
| 12:45 |
: Sure, from a syllogistic reasoning standpoint you’d slightly have a LHH something than a RHH something, you’d slightly have a SS than a 3B, and many others. The underside of that spectrum is RHH 1B, and I believe we see within the participant inhabitants that on the fringes of rosters that issues rather a lot. Whenever you’re Miguel Cabrera, not a lot.
|
| 12:45 |
: Has there been a drop-off of prospect high quality/amount out of Venezuela, given the unrest and different issues there?
|
| 12:46 |
: There was a stretch once they had been underscouted however now there’s a course of that permits them to be seen in Colombia. It’s a troublesome scenario for the gamers (and all Venezuelans) and for the scouts.
|
| 12:46 |
: Additionally simply noticed Robert Murray say the Astros are near signing Christian Walker. Fascinating that they went again to signing one other ageing 1B…
|
| 12:47 |
: Ah, actually? If that’s the case, I’m gonna miss watching that man 20 minutes from the home.
|
| 12:48 |
: Glad holidays, Eric! Drake Baldwin has the best xwOBA of any prospect within the Triple-A Statcast period (2021-24) aside from Matt McLain. Is Baldwin the highest catching prospect within the sport?
|
| 12:50 |
: No, I believe a part of my job, and actually the job of any educated sports activities fan, is to ask your self if issues move your sports activities fan odor check. Drake is somewhat too small for me to assume he’s going to have Javy Lopez’s energy. He’s good, I like him as a main catcher, however not a .500 SLG man.
|
| 12:50 |
: Do you have got any explicit ideas about Tomoyuki Sugano to the Orioles, equivalent to how he would possibly fare as a member of the O’s rotation?
|
| 12:51 |
: Love him, does it straightforward, nice command, don’t assume he has the pure stuff you need going 6+ in a playoff sport anymore however he’ll play a significant common season position for them.
|
| 12:51 |
: Are you continue to a believer that CJ Abrams can stick at quick? Appears like he needs to be taking part in OF and simply letting the bat work however that seems like a tough promote in DC.
|
| 12:51 |
: Agreed
|
| 12:51 |
: Does Homer Bush Jr undertaking as a daily or onky a defensive bench OF?
|
| 12:52 |
: Bench man for me, however a great one.
|
| 12:52 |
: Do you purchase Druw Jones statistical enhancements in 2nd a part of final season?
|
| 12:52 |
: Probably not, he simply stopped swinging.
|
| 12:52 |
: What’s the outlook for him going ahead? Nonetheless an enormous arm?
|
| 12:53 |
: Clearly let’s see how he seems when he pitches once more, however I like Eury each bit as a lot as I like Skenes. He’s a freak.
|
| 12:53 |
: As a Yankee fan who has watched Gil pitch I’m fairly positive he has peaked. Am I improper?
|
| 12:53 |
: I believe you’re proper, but when he sustains what he did in ’24 you’re psyched about that, proper/
|
| 12:54 |
: I might be, he mainly didn’t get higher since they bought him from the Twins after which swiftly had that changeup and bought in superb form.
|
| 12:55 |
: What was the reasoning behind dropping Drew Grey off the Cubs checklist, and do you assume he can recoup his prospect standing in 2025?
|
| 12:55 |
: Former million greenback HS arm, hasn’t added velo, walked 8 per 9 every of the final two seasons.
|
| 12:55 |
: What beneath the radar prospect are you irrationally enthusiastic about?
|
| 12:56 |
: That’s a troublesome one, I’m the radar, Failson.
|
| 12:56 |
: I couldn’t cease watching Alfredo Duno final weekend.
|
| 12:57 |
: When studying Shaw’s writeup, I used to be struck by the criticism of his swing. Are these flaws (large leg kick, and many others) fixable?
|
| 12:57 |
: Not vital, however it’s bizarre
|
| 12:59 |
: Okay people, I’ve gotta run. Thanks for coming once more this week. Subsequent week’s chat is up within the air, I’ll be at my outdated man’s for the vacation and must see household. Hope you have got a Merry Christmas, children benefit from the Wednesday Christmas two-week break and catch some Pokemon for me.
|
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and at the moment lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent 4 years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Information Options and two contributing to prospect protection at ESPN.com. Earlier work will also be discovered at Sports activities On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
