| 12:08 |
: Good morning from sunny Tempe. I returned from Dallas yesterday night, had a good time with the entire FG crew and different baseball friends, redeemed town after ASB.
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| 12:08 |
: I’m gonna preempt plenty of questions by posting a couple of hyperlinks to get began…
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| 12:09 |
: A lot of of us asking concerning the Crochet return. My ideas went dwell a couple of minutes in the past. Kyle Teel Headlines Strong Return Package deal for White Sox in Garrett Crochet Commerce | FanGraphs Baseball
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| 12:10 |
: In brief: A lot better than any of the offers they made final 12 months.
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| 12:10 |
: I additionally wrote up the Guardians return for Spencer Horwitz…
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| 12:11 |
: Okay let’s chat.
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| 12:11 |
: Cubs apparently are down to maneuver Cam Smith in a Kyle Tucker deal. Any guess of how a lot that’ll harm to look presently subsequent 12 months when Tucker’s on the free agent market?
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| 12:13 |
: I like Cam however I believe Tucker is an MVP candidate and I’d be tempted to make that commerce. The blow could be softened by the presence of Matt Shaw, who I believe is a extra pure match at 3B than both MIF spot and doubtless the long run reply there…
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| 12:14 |
: However I’d additionally wanna really feel a bit extra assured that my roster was really a contending roster earlier than I made a knowingly brief sighted transfer like that.
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| 12:14 |
: Do any of the A’s younger pitchers challenge as greater than again of the rotation starters? Considering Estes, Ginn, Spence, Boyle, Basso, Harris, Waldichuk, Medina, Hoglund, Barnett, Perkins, and Morales.
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| 12:15 |
: I believe Ginn’s sinker will permit him to eat innings such that he’s not only a vanilla 5. Barnett identical factor, his stuff is fairly good and he’s confirmed that he can deal with the workload and maintain it….
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| 12:15 |
: Morales has large upside, remains to be uncooked. A lot of variance there, however he has probably the most upside of that group by rather a lot.
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| 12:16 |
: Waldy and Medina I preferred as a no. 4 SP and late-inning RP, respectively.
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| 12:16 |
: Obvs Waldy was dangerous after which acquired harm.
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| 12:16 |
: Ought to Konnor Griffin be extra extremely regarded contemplating his instruments and talent to play premium positions? To me, idk if every other prospect has extra upside than him.
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| 12:18 |
: His proper tail outcomes are enormous, sure. The way in which I grade gamers takes bust danger and dev time under consideration and each are related in Griffin’s case
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| 12:18 |
: Have you ever made eyes on Jesus Made but, Eric? What do you assume or do I would like to attend? Glad Hollidays Sir. What would you want for Christmas?
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| 12:20 |
: When you’re talking from a dynasty league standpoint, if it’s very laborious to entry franchise sort gamers then go for it. I’ve seen a couple of video games on tape, he appears the half and his trackman knowledge was ridiculous. He’s undoubtedly a high 100 man, I’ll want extra earlier than I stuff him in he high 25 or one thing like that
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| 12:20 |
: For christmas, hmmm….
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| 12:21 |
: IDK possibly it’s time for a brand new guitar?
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| 12:21 |
: How does your evaluation/valuation of high-contact, questionable-power prospects like McGonigle or Brito versus light-power-power, high-k guys distinction with how MLB groups would possibly worth these prospects?
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| 12:24 |
: It truthfully relies on the workforce, and in addition varies individual to individual inside that workforce’s scouting or analyst group. I have a tendency to love the excessive contact guys even once they lack overt bodily projection, however I have a tendency to not challenge on these types the way in which others would possibly wanting solely at their age.
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| 12:24 |
: As a Mariners fan I simply turned much more within the high of this years draft. I do know its early however how does the expertise on the high of this years draft examine to the final three?
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| 12:25 |
: I believe there are a few guys who’ve an argument to be high 100 prospects instantly, like two or three at this stage. By draft time that quantity is extra like 6. It’s potential a real top-of-the-class slam dunk will emerge by then however I don’t assume there may be one now…
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| 12:26 |
: I really like Tyler Bremner from UC Santa Barbara and assume he’s as near a high 3-to-5 lock because the draft has proper now. Listed below are my notes on him proper now: Unfastened, versatile, and lean right-hander who sits mid 90s together with his FB and was routinley within the upper-90s throughout shorter bursts with Crew USA throughout the summer time of ’24. Posted a .88 WHIP as a soph at UCSB. Has a shot to develop three plus pitches. Fastball averaged 95 mph throughout the common season with plus rise/run motion. Additionally includes a two-plane, bat-missing slider with tight, laborious spin and unusual velocity (85-88 mph) for a pitch with above-average size. Bremner’s greatest pitch is likely to be a changeup that may flash large depth and late fading motion. There are stretches the place his arm slot drops when throwing the cambio however you’ll be able to go loopy projecting on that pitch due to his fluidity and arm pace. One of many high pitching prospects within the 2025 draft and a possible high 5 choose..
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| 12:27 |
: I believe Corona SS Billy Carlson is he greatest highschool prospect and may very well be a 1.1 candidate if he reveals up sronger within the spring. Plus defender, 7 arm, carried out from a bat-to-ball standpoint in opposition to HS showcase guys.
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| 12:28 |
: Aiva Arquette is the opposite participant who checks principally all of the containers from a defenseive match/offensive efficiency standpoint, and he has the overt bodily projection you search for in a high-ceiling man. He may blow up and go 1.
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| 12:29 |
: So these are my three high guys proper now.
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| 12:29 |
: That is clearly a lot simpler stated than completed, and may very well be stated of a thousand prospects who by no means turned something, however: what does a model of Spencer Jones who improves his swing selections sufficient to run a Okay% down round 30 on the main league stage seem like? I don’t assume he’ll ever get the whiff per swing charge to common, however that doesn’t actually decide the harm a man does on contact
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| 12:31 |
: Perhaps a shade higher than Oneil Cruz’s 2024 line? Spenny’s energy is extra actualized on contact by way of higher launch.
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| 12:31 |
: There aren’t many minor leaguers who’ve managed 57% laborious hit charges. Matt Wallner possibly in there, too.
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| 12:32 |
: Do the Twins have sufficient SP depth within the higher minors (together with guys like SWR, Festa, and Matthews) to really feel comfy in the event that they commerce Chris Paddack?
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| 12:36 |
: Was there something within the minor-league Rule V draft price noticing?
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| 12:37 |
: Lotta groups taking guys who they assume can really play C/SS simply an an org depth improve at these spots….
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| 12:38 |
: A lot of pitching reclamation initiatives. DeVito, Franco, Floyd, Peek, guys who’ve been harm or whose profession took a bizarre flip.
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| 12:38 |
: Hajjar is that, too
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| 12:39 |
: The highest choose, Joseph Yabbour, was sitting 96-98 on the finish of the 12 months at St. Lucie’s nearer. Actually wild man, however has upside if the White Sox can polish him up
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| 12:41 |
: As a Pink Sox fan, I’ve sophisticated emotions about this commerce. I perceive that Teel was the least heralded of the Heralded 4, and naturally I’m delighted to nonetheless have Anthony. However there are so few catchers round, someway, and the Sox are already taking part in one who I believe could also be secretly a second basemen. Is Teel possibly additional away than I believed? Is Narvaez any person?
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| 12:42 |
: I will likely be engaged on writing up the Carlos Narvaez/Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz deal as soon as we get off right here. I stated out loud within the media workroom after the Crochet deal broke that the Yankees have been the workforce with a catching surplus for Boston to siphon from however I didn’t assume they’d really consummate one thing..
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| 12:43 |
: I at present have Narvaez eval’d as a power-over-hit third catcher. Will clearly take a recent go at him after I write the piece.
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| 12:45 |
: Admire your perception on Over-Slot lately. Do you think about Ethan Holliday’s swing flaw being recognized this early one thing that works for (he’s not even 18 but) or in opposition to him?
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| 12:47 |
: I’m undecided it’s correctable, I believe his arms simply work in a manner that leaves him very susceptible to many fastballs up/away. I’ve him extra center of the primary spherical. 72% contact man on the showcase circuit, hit .240 and slugged .380 if you add up his whole multi-year showcase pattern. Love the uncooked energy potential, don’t assume the efficiency deserves a high 5 choose. However the Colorado/Holliday connection and Washington’s willingness to take guys like Elijah Inexperienced looms.
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| 12:48 |
: Of Baltimore’s three 50 FV starters (Povich/McDermott/Younger), which one are you most in on? Facet word: McDermott’s fastball visually appears probably the most spectacular of his pitches however stuff fashions don’t look after it (?)
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| 12:48 |
: I believe I’d have Younger first (lock SP), then McDermott (agree with you concerning the FB), after which Povich who I’m anxious has much less exact command than he must thrive with fairly vanilla stuff.
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| 12:50 |
: What are your ideas on projecting additional energy manufacturing for Spencer Horwitz? Is bat pace the one obvious deficiency in his profile, and what’s your sense of gamers and dev teams capability or observe document of bettering bat pace w/o compromising contact charge and high quality?
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| 12:52 |
: That man has undoubtedly made himself stronger than I’d have guessed and he appears completely ripped, however yeah the bat pace is the bat pace. As a result of minor league bat pace isn’t an goal factor I’ve entry to any identification of adjustments such as you describe is dicey, proper? However yeah typically guys like Kristian Campbell simply begin swinging manner, manner more durable and there’s at all times some quantity of give to their hit software. If the muse was adequate that they Okay extra however nonetheless at a workable charge, then cool.
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| 12:52 |
: If there’s variability in projecting Horwitz it’s in all probability coming extra from whether or not an org assume he can play 2B or not. Much less to do together with his offense.
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| 12:53 |
: Ideas on Travis Hunter being listed as ATH as his place & whether or not or not he’ll get drafted by the As ?
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| 12:54 |
: Lol, I don’t know whether or not he’s going to have the ability to play each methods within the NFL. I need to hear the Dane Bruglers and Connor Rogers of the world on that matter. I do assume Mykell Williams is a darkish horse 1.1 candidate although, I’d take him over Abdul Carter as my high edge man.
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| 12:55 |
: Not a prospect anymore, however what do you consider Max Meyer at this level? Really feel like he wants to include the changeup and sinker extra. The fourseam doesn’t appear robust sufficient to be extra of a two-pitch man.
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| 12:55 |
: I’m with you, it will have been silly to assume that he’d maintain the arm power he confirmed pre-pandemic (as much as 102 right here in AZ) for an entire season however to lose like seven ticks is fairly wild.
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| 12:57 |
: How far-off are the Nationals’ duo of 6’6” 20-year-old pitchers, Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana, from reaching the Dollander-Chandler-Sproat tier on The Board?
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| 12:59 |
: How ever far-off from the 40-man they’re, principally. Each may very well be back-of-the-100 varieties this cycle, strikes have been there for each this 12 months, Susana crested 100 innings i feel. Proving it with 120+ innings and being on the cusp of the majors is principally a compulsory factor for me to place a pitching prospect within the high 30
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| 12:59 |
: Leaving most definitely candidates of it (Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Padres) Which mid-market workforce would you say has the most effective sources and infrastructure to legitimately have a shot at Roki Sasaki?
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| 1:02 |
: Baltimore got here to thoughts first. One thing about Sasaki’s purported grave seriousness suits with Adley and that group. That org has completed nicely with pitching….
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| 1:03 |
: Hmmm, who else?
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| 1:05 |
: I selfishly need him to be a D’Again, Carroll would get to take a step again from the highlight in a manner that is likely to be good for him. No Walker within the clubhouse, although.
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| 1:06 |
: The Rays or Las Vegas Athletics of Sacramento could be a enjoyable match, I wanna see a minor league park deal with that media deluge.
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| 1:07 |
: Clearly Cleveland, Seattle, Atlanta, locations which have proven they will make pitchers good, would all appear to be nice suits (although clearly SEA’s want isn’t at present pitching)
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| 1:07 |
: Milwaukee on that record too
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| 1:08 |
: Non-zero shot to be the set-up man, must be extra constant. That child was at an AFL sport like three days after they gained the ship, simply needed to be round baseball.
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| 1:08 |
: After a reasonably disappointing debut within the majors final 12 months, is Bryan Ramos nonetheless the White Sox’ 3Bman of the long run?
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| 1:08 |
: The dearth of bat pace scares me however I’m nonetheless on his protection in an enormous, large manner.
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| 1:09 |
: Do you assume Teel would be the greatest prospect traded this winter?
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| 1:09 |
: There was a lot discuss of the “Golden AB” a couple of weeks again (I hate the thought myself), however what are your ideas on it? I personally need ABS in place and assume MLB will likely be higher and look very totally different as soon as that is applied.
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| 1:11 |
: Hate it, feels to far off from a core side of baseball which is “take your flip”. I’m professional Problem System (it’s going to be an enormous, large deal and everybody will find it irresistible, it’s going to be tremendous enjoyable to be within the stadium when the gang roasts a visiting participant for being unsuitable) however not full ABS.
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| 1:12 |
: The change they’re on the lookout for it that. It provides nuance to the sport. Full ABS takes nuance away.
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| 1:14 |
: Does Colorado not making a Rule 5 choose border on malfeasance?
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| 1:16 |
: Eh, I simply peeked at their full 40-man and I suppose one of many relievers on the backside of the roster may have jettisoned to make room for somebody with extra upside. I like Herget, Chicken, and so on. however including Bastardo who you’ll be able to 60-day immediately possibly would have been a great transfer.
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| 1:17 |
: Ethan Holliday was not nice throughout the summer time circuit similar to his large bro, however what are the important thing variations of their swings? The bodily builds and actions are clearly very totally different, however how do their bat paths examine?
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| 1:17 |
: Jackson was actually good.
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| 1:17 |
: The ability arrived the next day spring however the contact was at all times there
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| 1:19 |
: Ooop, thanks for this. I’ve gotta run and get notes to Ben on Caleb Durbin, as he’s writing up the commerce. Lemme take a couple of fast hearth questions actually shortly…
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| 1:19 |
: How a lot do you consider the malleability of abilities? For instance, how a lot do you lean on prior capability to enhance say, zone contact, even contextualizing inside a corporation? Do you’re feeling strongly about some abilities being extra innate than others, exterior of issues like he’s 6’7 with broad shoulders sort insights?
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| 1:22 |
: Nice query. I are inclined to assume contact is much less malleable and that there are specific guys who merely can’t ID offspeed stuff regardless of how a lot they see it. I don’t assume the latter is common. I believe some purely bodily instruments might be improved via higher mechanical effectivity and a few groups (be it by way of use of tech or simply scout/coach/dev personnels’ eye for this form of factor) are higher at figuring out, “hey, that participant may very well be higher if he moved like this or was positioned like that”
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| 1:23 |
: Do you ever surprise how Kyler Murray could be doing if he dedicated to the A’s in alternate universe?
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| 1:23 |
: Sure, typically.
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| 1:23 |
: Which of those guys turns right into a celebrity? Okay. Campbell, Leo Devries, Jesus Made, Sebastian Walcott
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| 1:23 |
: Walcott
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| 1:24 |
: Any information on the Caleb Durbin. Prospect included within the Devin Williams commerce
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| 1:26 |
: Okay, your complete chat is simply Caleb Durbin questions which I believe is an indication that I ought to depart. TBD on chat subsequent week as a result of I’m touring to Philly for a marriage and the vacations. Till then…
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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and at present lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent 4 years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Information Options and two contributing to prospect protection at ESPN.com. Earlier work can be discovered at Sports activities On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
