Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/22/24

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. I certainly have COVID and am  most likely going to do an abbreviated model of chat right this moment. If anybody needs two Todd Barry tickets for tonight at Crescent Ballroom they need to holler at me.

Andy: It’s early however any ideas on subsequent 12 months’s draft class?

Eric A Longenhagen: I actually just like the HS class, I believe the faculty pitching crop will likely be manner higher than final 12 months, I’m unsure Ethan Holliday is definitely good

Syndergaardengnomes: Too quickly for a breakdown of the highest rule 5 guys obtainable?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s simply such an inefficient, open-ended train with an unlimited participant pool. I may spend some time simply scrolling via Roster Useful resource selecting names that stand out to me, however now isn’t the time for it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Evan Reifert was one, simply shopping the location like regular this week, that stood out to me.

himona: CHW employed Ryan Fuller from BAL as “hitting coordinator”. what was BAL’s draft and dev technique that produced them so many good younger hitters?

Eric A Longenhagen: They principally used the Elias-era Houston components after they picked manner up prime and have been capable of land consequential over slot excessive schoolers in later rounds. Mayo and Gunnar the large two. Additionally they, internally, flip plate self-discipline and method right into a recreation inside the recreation which appears to enhance the gamers in a significant manner

John: Do the Dodgers transfer Dashing to the OF to allow them to match his bat in sooner? Or focus extra on growing his abilities as a C.

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t be dying to maneuver him out from behind the plate, it is advisable to have depth at that place as a result of it’s so brutal.

Alexis Anthopolous: Simply how unhealthy do the returns for Murphy and Olson search for the (not Sac) A’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: Langeliers redeems the Olson commerce sufficient and a bunch of these guys are going to play within the massive leagues for not less than a short while. Pache flopping hurts however that one isn’t terrible. The Murphy deal is. I simply suppose they actually, actually over-evaluated Esteury. They appeared sizzling for him the deadline earlier than, too.

Jeremy: Ought to the Phillies be planning on Andrew Painter within the rotation all season in 2025?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply due to innings depend/workload stuff, most likely not.

Tacoby Bellsbury: How do you combine ZiPS or different projection programs into your evaluation?

Eric A Longenhagen: It may be a sanity test, it would trigger me to re-evaluate somebody if there’s an enormous hole between what ZiPS thinks and what I believe. I exploit knowledge to tell selections however I’m not working a mannequin.

Visitor: Hello Eric,

Thanks for these chats. I’m without end gleaning opinions on prospects. Nonetheless,nI have a number of prospects whose latest efficiency leaves me questioning whether or not to chop bait or not:

1. Mick Abel, P PHI – management is atrocious and hasn’t improved as he’s moved up the system. Put him on the commerce block – ZERO curiosity. You’ve given him a 50 FV. Nonetheless legitimate? He’s descending prospect charts in a short time.

2. Carson Whisenhunt, P SF – at all times suspicious of men missing an honest FB. Numbers don’t impress.One other 50 FV however I don’t see it. SF does want pitching so I presume he’s related nonetheless.

3. Nehomar Ochoa Jr., OF HOU – not exhibiting a lot at A-, BA provides him a forty five FV an HQ charges him extremely. Your ideas?

Eric A Longenhagen:

1. I up to date Abel ideas in my 40-man piece this week. His blurb on The Board is recent.
2. Yeah, his command remains to be not nice and he may slide. Giants record is without doubt one of the subsequent few.
3. By no means actually on him, BA doesn’t use FV.

davealden53: What’s the way forward for Jett Williams given the large block in entrance of him within the Mets infield?

Kevin: As a Guardians fan, my eyebrows have been raised seeing Chase DeLauter now ranked tenth general on the large board. Is it secure for me to get enthusiastic about him or ought to I wait till he can keep on the sector for a reasonably lengthy time period?

Eric A Longenhagen: Persistent accidents are a difficulty that may trigger him to slip as I do that record cycle

Eric A Longenhagen: Flores principally didn’t play in AFL so my ideas there are sadly TBD. Rice, no. They’ve their catcher, it’s Wells.

Jerry: Can Alan Roden (112 max EV) entry some latent energy and have a shot as a daily in 2025? Another underrated OF’s to regulate for subsequent season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nonetheless not a ton of launch there, onerous hit charge additionally not loopy or something. I believe he’s extra a bit than a daily. For subsequent 12 months? I really feel like Trei Cruz may very well be a Willi Castro kind… underrated guys? IDK, open ended questions like which might be robust within the second. And in addition, I’m doing the score proper?

Visitor: Is Cartaya out of the image as a prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, catchers take without end. He’s flawed, you hope he’s Zunino kind or turns into Tyler Flowers or one thing

Sodo Mojo: Does Ben Williamson have sufficient bat to hit on the MLB degree.? You gave him a low grade on the Mariners prospect report however he did hit moderately at AA which is normally the place hitting prospects go to die within the M’s org.

Eric A Longenhagen: The grade is low however he made the record. I’ve an up/down on him, nonetheless suppose that’s proper.

Thrice: Obtained to see them final June in Seattle for the Artist within the Ambulance tour, phenomenal present. Hope you’re feeling higher quickly.

Eric A Longenhagen: The Marquee was as full as I’ve ever seen it, enormous age vary for the attendees which was tremendous cool. I did have a bartender with tattoos throughout his bald head ask me once I ordered a gimlet, “is that the type of drink you need in a plastic cup?” and I needed to cease myself from Larry Daviding him into the void.

tumtum: Did you get an opportunity to see Liranzo in AFL? If that’s the case, what did you consider his catching and long run viability within the place?

Eric A Longenhagen: Arm is there, ball blocking isn’t, it’s going to most likely take one other few years however he has a lot swap hitting energy for a catcher that I believe he’ll finally be excellent

Colin: Why are folks falling throughout themselves over Caleb Durbin‘s AFL efficiency when he had a principally an identical efficiency in 2023, and was a 12 months youthful then?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is that this a factor taking place on social media or one thing? Who cares? He’s a Yankees prospect so individuals are going to speak about him, he steals bases so fantasy folks care about him.

Anon: Are you able to broaden extra on the orioles farm recreation inside a recreation for method and plate self-discipline?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s like: anticipated worth added for swinging at this, ev misplaced for chasing that.

David: Little bit of a late draft query. Ideas on the Mariners method to drafting the final couple years? Placing so much into the highest of the draft and going after “precedence seniors” to offset the draft pool quantities.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tremendous cool, they’ve been capable of scoop up a mixture of ceiling (with the HS guys), depth, and proximity by getting the precedence seniors.

Anon: Are you able to say the subsequent 3-5 org prospect lists which can come out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Remainder of the golf equipment who practice right here within the East Valley: CHC, ARI, COL, SFG

Roman: Thanks for the year-round prospects updates. Given SD’s payroll limitations and roster turnover, do you suppose that Eguy Rosario and Tirso Ornelas can cowl the bench roles that Solano and Peralta had final 12 months? Eguy specifically appears like an incredible platoon possibility for SD alongside Cronenworth/Arraez.

Eric A Longenhagen: I believe Eguy will get rostered, I believe Ornelas they could attempt to improve since you need somebody extra established and impactful to fill that LHH OF platoon kind position (Joc Pederson, Conforto kind) and Tirso nonetheless has choices left.

Buff: To return to Jett Williams, do you see him because the CF of the long run for the Mets?

Scott: You steadily observe {that a} hitter thriving in low minors has a gap that will likely be uncovered afterward. Different evaluators don’t appears to put in writing that up as typically and typically it places you on an island for higher or worse.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve grown completely snug with this.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d a lot relatively be unsuitable when the opinion was completely mine than a few of the options.

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Brandon Younger‘s velo progressively declined when he hit AAA and settled round 92 mph. Does your analysis suggest he’ll tick again as much as 93-94 after an offseason of relaxation? He did pitch ~100 innings after being on the shelf for like two years.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m on board along with your stamina take, and likewise I believe that pitch has motion/angle that may allow it to play even when it isn’t onerous, and Younger command the heck out of it.

Fuz: Did Kayfus’s efficiency get him a FV above 35?

Eric A Longenhagen: For certain, ought to have been on final 12 months’s record.

Large Gonzales: I’m sorry you’re sick and need to miss Todd Barry. He’s nice. Being sick isn’t so nice. My query of the day is concerning the Crimson Sox. Am I unsuitable in considering that it’s best to maintain the large 4 and see how they play as a substitute of cashing out early? Teel is sweet for a C, however the different 3 have massive upsides and when you can develop a 5-6 battle star, then you definately do this as a substitute of buying and selling one or two for a #2 pitcher that must be prolonged, proper? I’ve seen this reset so many instances since 2000 that I don’t need to see Breslow money in all of the chips after they have cash to spend.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t commerce guys you want and suppose is perhaps a giant deal till you understand you’re truly a ’25 contender.

Ben: Is younger Chourio higher the the older?

Beau: have there been any highschool prospects from the 2024 class which have compelled an adjustment to their pre-draft evaluations primarily based on early SSS in bridge leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hmmm, I assumed Slade Caldwell seemed good, Kellon Lindsey fairly good (don’t know if both strikes, had fairly robust grades on each pre draft)

Colton: Odd the Pirates begin the 12 months with Bubba within the rotation? Looks like an honest shot at profitable ROY and so they simply acquired burned by Skenes profitable it this 12 months and misplaced the choose

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d guess not. He’s not even on the 40-man, you’re taking away out of your depth once you add him and need to subtract any individual else. It’s believable he completely kicks down the door, however I’d guess he ends debuting later in ’25 after they want him due to accidents, or late sufficient that his rookie standing and all 3 choices will be preserved for ’26

Ben Schneider: Hello Eric, do you suppose Sutter Well being and Steinbrenner will play any otherwise in MLB video games than in PCL or FSL video games?

Eric A Longenhagen: It is a nice query and doubtless deserves its personal article from somebody smarter than I’m who can use physics or one thing to ballpark how the change in pitch velocity will impression ball flight at these locations. Sacramento is without doubt one of the pitcher-friendly PCL parks, however that’s relative to the remainder of the PCL, not the large leagues.

Coolby: I’m going to spring coaching in Arizona for the primary time this February! The place in Goodyear ought to I take my foodie associate  to eat to thank her for indulging my baseball obsession?

Eric A Longenhagen: The west finish of the Metro is hard, bro. Go downtown and eat at Lom Wong.

Kate: Any ideas on Boston Baro? Seems like contact and plate self-discipline is there, energy is behind however at 6’3″ 180ish I might suppose he faucets into extra energy

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m with you, I dig him. Has really feel to hit, projectable, love the lefty-hitting infield broad strokes profile.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll have a light-weight contact with each these guys this cycle, I believe. I had a 50 on Dominguez, nothing loopy. Jones I stuffed.

Tom: Bryce Elridge: Can I dream for a 2025 30 HR Giants participant or is that simply wishful considering?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pipe dream

Dadbauer: Ought to Brewer followers be as enthusiastic about Jesus Made than we have been about Chourio? Or ought to we pump the breaks?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in, the information is nuts and he has “the look”. Ought to he be a prime 10 prospect instantly or something like that? In all probability not.

Dan: Very a lot admire that you just shared the DSL Mets livestream hyperlink a few chats in the past. to listen to the way you deal with rating and evaluating prospects like Cristopher Larez, who’s clearly proficient however is coming off a 56-game PED suspension

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s one the place I cop out through he commerce worth POV and point out him on the finish of the record. Is anybody buying and selling for that man proper now? In all probability not.

Eric A Longenhagen: BTW, these Mets DSL streams have featured them taking part in Milwaukee a bunch recently, for you Made freaks.

carl: i see loads of charlie condon hate on the web. thats overblown proper? its so early in his profession

Eric A Longenhagen: I might by no means say “hate”, however “skepticism”? Yeah, however in some locations on the web that was current earlier than he draft.

Leric A Ongenhagen: Ought to the Cardinals transfer Roby to the pen? He has good things, however two misplaced years with shoulder accidents

Eric A Longenhagen: Seems like they did after he got here again towards the tip of the 12 months.

Junior Marin: Is there any particular knowledge/trait from DSL prospects that you just imagine to be an honest predictor of success as soon as the prospects come stateside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Far more noise than sign for DSL knowledge as a result of competitors high quality. I believe you’ll be able to determine crimson flags in chase and call charges, however massive DSL exit velos are sometimes a product of bodily maturity relatively than ability.

GraphsFan: Do you proceed to comply with prospect graduates, or are likely to comply with / scout ballplayers much less carefully the additional they get from graduating from prospectdom?

Eric A Longenhagen: I watch and comply with the large leagues carefully

Eric A Longenhagen: You’ve gotta, I really feel like

Kate: Made gonna go straight to A ball this 12 months, following the latest Brewers’ custom?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s an incredible and terrifying query that simply made Invoice Mitchell do a spit take for concern of not attending to {photograph} him subsequent spring.

Jacob: Do you just like the AFL triple headers? Or does it simply make for a really lengthy day?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends upon the visitors, actually. I like making an attempt to pressure myself to maintain focusing midway through recreation 3 or no matter, amid 15 mixed walks. It isn’t nice for writing and really making stuff for the location, although.

Ben Schneider: Did any of the 40-man additions actually shock you?

Kate: Michael Arroyo’s 2024 deliver you round in any respect?  Or was that principally a product of an excellent hitter pleasant park?

Eric A Longenhagen: Simply peeking at his spray chart (and possibly I placed on a couple of swings of him going through stuff on the interior third of the plate whereas I’ve been chatting, who’s to say?) this isn’t as red-flaggy. Had a whole incapability to drag fastballs, thought he’d get labored up round his fingers, at first look that is higher.

Jacob: What can be your largest updates to the guide when you edited it right this moment?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d wanna write about language modeling, minor league contraction’s knock-on results, the switch portal’s knock-on results

Ben Schneider: Whenever you say you’re stuff on the interior third, do you could have a strategy to shortly filter pitch sorts and site to observe video?

Eric A Longenhagen: (Smiling and nodding devilishly)

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, time for me to separate. No chat subsequent week due to Turkey Day (go Roughs). Thanks for chatting, please think about a sub to the location or not less than ditch your advert blocker, all of us admire your help so very a lot. Deuces