Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 11/15

Eric A Longenhagen: Completely satisfied Friday morning, you hosers! It’s Fall League semi-final day so I’ll be (I feel boldly/stupidly) using my bike to Scottsdale Stadium this afternoon and mourning the top of our home baseball-watching calendar…

Eric A Longenhagen: This week I posted an replace to the International Professional Prospect checklist, and the Angels checklist…

Eric A Longenhagen: Due to Sean Dolinar for implementing this through the week

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, vamanos a su preguntas

Phil: Up to date ideas on Denzel Clarke after his latest season and any appears on the AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: He has made a few of the most ridiculous and unbelievable performs on the wall that I’ve ever seen. I feel it should take some time for him to hit (if it occurs in any respect) however within the meantime he completely has a job on a group as a plus defensive middle fielder.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s simply such a outstanding athlete and runner, actually particular watching him go first to 3rd or residence

Eric A Longenhagen: he leapt so excessive making an attempt to rob a homer this week that his thighs have been on the high of the wall and he toppled over it. In CF, not the dugout railing

bk: How do you as a prospect evaluator deal with seasons like Nimmala’s, the place half was terrible, and the opposite half was nice?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d look to see if there’s visible proof of an adjustment within the second half. As a result of Arj performed within the FSL there’s scrapeable information which may present him bettering in chase/whiff in opposition to breaking stuff later within the yr

Eric A Longenhagen: that’s how I’d method him, particularly, realizing points with spin have been current as an newbie (I had him late first spherical)

Eamus Catuli: Which Cubs prospect do you see having the best ceiling? Have they got celebrity potential someplace on the farm?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do know it’s not attractive and new to say this as a result of he’s been round perpetually, however isn’t it Kevin Alcantara? A 6-foot-6 22 yr previous CF with energy and pace? It’s him. Cam Smith might be subsequent, Angel Cepeda may be the sneaky sleeper identify you’re in search of.

Damaged Pitchers: Has Alex Santos turned a nook?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a 40 RP for me (which is sweet). Mid-90s, cutter, curveball, every thing somewhat higher than common for me however nothing persistently plus. Don’t assume he’s a late-inning man or mid-rotation starter, although.

MetsHead: Drew Gilbert appears to have discovered his energy stroke however misplaced contact.  Is that this all rust, or a shift in ability set?

Eric A Longenhagen: His head has been flying in every single place when he swings, it was true after I noticed him with Syracuse round Labor Day (although I feel he was freshly off harm then?) and has remained so. Positively appears extra like a forty five than a real on a regular basis man

Say Whaaaaaa: Did Chase Meidroth do sufficient this yr at AAA to maneuver as much as the 45+ tier? Can he be one thing like a MI utility model of Schanuel?

Eric A Longenhagen: He simply doesn’t have the form of bodily instruments I’m in search of after we’re speaking a couple of grade that top. What grade would you placed on Schanuel?

Eric A Longenhagen:

TJ: Steamer has Ben Rice at a 115 wRC+ for 25. He had a 16% barrel final yr. You actually assume he’s a fringe 40 man man?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, I really like his potential to grab these excessive fastballs, and little doubt massive bodily guys with lefty energy like him are the types who break late and have a related window…

Eric A Longenhagen: However Rice hit like .180 in opposition to non-fastballs final yr. There’s a approach to get him out and I feel massive league golf equipment are inclined to determine that out and exploit it. The projection fashions cherished Davis Schneider, too.

Busts: Final small pattern dimension, however primarily based on their professional debut which 2024 first rounder do you assume is generally prone to fail in 2025

Eric A Longenhagen: Condon’s was fairly regarding

Kave Dingman: Years in the past, I labored with a man whose son was a twenty fifth rounder and pitched within the minors and in Indy ball. He principally stated that in case you have been a high choose, you would need to “work on” particular issues. Like bettering your curveball would imply EVERY batter will get a 1st pitch curve. Which doesn’t take lengthy for the opposite group to determine. The result’s that high prospects outcomes will endure, in the meantime the pitcher is progressing.

How a lot of that is nonetheless true and the way a lot does it influence the statistics of the highest prospects/

Eric A Longenhagen: I agree that there are cases the place this occurs but it surely’s not often for therefore lengthy that it has a huge effect on anybody’s statistical efficiency throughout a large enough pattern. For me, for scouts, and even for analysts I feel being delicate to the likelihood that stuff like this may be happening is necessary…

Eric A Longenhagen: As an example, Griff McGarry used to have a fantastic changeup. He hasn’t thrown his changeup for me within the AFL. After I do the Phillies checklist, I’ve to dive into that both in his common season information and movie, or by asking somebody with Philly why that is the case.

Mlong: Are you going to rank Roki this yr?  What about Sugano? I overlook the place you draw the traces on rank vs don’t rank?

Eric A Longenhagen: The way in which we’ve settled on it (Meg and I favored JJ Cooper’s logic) is that the blokes who’re topic to Int’l Bonus Swimming pools get ranked, the blokes who’ve performed sufficient to be posted free brokers don’t.

Eric A Longenhagen: We used to make use of whether or not or not the p[layer was Rookie of the 12 months eligible, which utilized to Yamamoto, Imanaga, and many others., as a result of my logic was, “give individuals all the data you possibly can, don’t take stuff away”, however when Yoshida stated he felt disrespected by being on ROY ballots at his age/expertise I turned open to alter

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel the BBWAA ought to agree to chop off ROY voting with the identical definition. Having Yamamoto, and many others. be ROY eligible impacts how groups view Prospect Promotion Incentives

Sodo Mojo: When you’ve gotten a group just like the Mariners who need to very batter pleasant A ball residence parks what are you from a stats perspective when you’re making an attempt to evaluate their hitters at that stage.

Eric A Longenhagen: Park-independent stuff like contact charges and onerous hit charges. Mainly the identical stuff as I’d search for from anybody else. The house park components simply affect how a lot I care about triple slash traces and such

Vslyke: Jared Jones slumped because the season went on – is he going to be sturdy sufficient to carry up over a full season?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s a fantastic query that has been a part of his profile for his complete prospectdom, and he’ll both get to show it or not. He’s a particular sufficient athlete that I’m optimistic.

Excellent timing: I used to be simply provided Xavier Isaac in OttoNeu. 80/80/80/80 energy.   Any probability of 2025 MLB contributor?  One ink says “glorious bat management”; one other Ok fee is exploding. You say?

Eric A Longenhagen: Ok’s exploding, not a 2025 contributor, nonetheless imagine within the energy long run

Eric A Longenhagen: He may be coping with persistent wrist or hand stuff? He’s had a brace on generally right here

Anaheim offers you Wings: Are there any advantages to the Angels’ “promote as shortly as attainable” program?  Looks like the event is lagging, the gamers make it to FA sooner, and the minors are left with few items.  So what are the pluses?

Eric A Longenhagen: There are positively individuals in baseball who assume the gamers who’re really good will simply carry out on a regular basis with none extended pace bumps. If that’s true then their method is sensible.

Eric A Longenhagen: It made some situational sense given the Ohtani/Trout window, however now it feels form of rushed as if there have to be outcomes from the pipeline to ensure that individuals to maintain their jobs

Philip: By any probability do you’ve gotten Salas EV information for AFL (all video games not simply those statcast exhibiting)? thanks

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t, some ballparks are utilizing Trackman and others Hawkeye so it may be cut up up in every single place irrespective of who you might be

Stromile Swift: Moinelo’s conversion to beginning makes him a extremely attention-grabbing FA risk together with his fallback as a doubtlessly elite reliever. Have you ever heard something regarding the potential of him really coming over? I notice this can be a lot extra sophisticated since he has to defect as nicely

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve not. This query and and username are probably the most Eric bait ever, btw.

Eric A Longenhagen: I suppose I actually have divulged so much about myself throughout 8 years of being right here

E: Ideas on Ballesteros probability to stay at catcher to some extent? How a lot does he transfer up on the board if he’s a catcher? The bat appears spectacular for a younger man in AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: He can throw nicely sufficient to do it and I feel that’s key. He positively lacks the body/dimension I need (he’s a husky 5-foot-8) and he’s been operating to the backstop a ton right here in AFL. It’s extra dicey than Liranzo and Agustin Ramirez however I’m nonetheless cautiously optimistic

Stromile Swift: And as a observe as much as my earlier query, how does it work for an NPB prospect that should defect with the posting system? Does he defect then will get “posted”? Appears very messy (and possibly they solely find yourself coming over after they attain FA standing)

Eric A Longenhagen: In Moinelo’s case he signed a four-year deal in March so it’d be a big mess, and I can’t think about him really bailing on it. I feel the Robert Suarez’s of the world wait till their NPB deal is up they usually’re true FA

Jay: After studying the LAA report, what’s the ‘floor’ (ninetieth %tile?) for Natera if he’s in a position to hone his command?

Eric A Longenhagen: JA Happ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like tremendous well-built lefty with out monster secondaries sort man, simply hucking strikes with sink/lower, tremendous sturdy above avg arm energy sort man

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Do you imagine in Austin Overn making changes Cape Cod and ahead?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s simply so narrowly constructed, the PAC12 tourney look was simply okay, extra fifth OF search for me than anything except he will get stronger. Love soccer gamers, after all, however he’s gotta add mass

Buf: What number of years would Schanuel need to put up .258/.355/.402 (present projection, 118 wRC+, 2 WAR) earlier than you thought of him a 50? I’m guessing it might take over a full season lol. And I feel I’d agree!

Eric A Longenhagen: Gotta do it a number of years, like avg 2 WAR for five yrs

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is there any public-facing information that you just use to judge gamers on the CPX/DSL stage, or is all of it visible scouting and private strike zone/plate self-discipline stuff?

Eric A Longenhagen: The latter, if there’s a public-facing factor that people don’t learn about it’s that there are tons of CMPLX/DSL streams on YouTube that you can be watching, and people usually have reside TrackMan on the stream

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s occurring proper now. It’s superior. That is how I spend my mornings.

Jason: Which 2024 draft guys do you want most for dynasty leagues?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d be focusing on the ability/pace combo guys like anybody else. I’d be extra prone to take a PJ Morlando than a Wyatt Sanford as a result of a lot of Sanford’s actual world potential comes from protection. So Caldwell, Morlando, Lindsey. Pitchers I’d simply care about proximity.

Tony Plush: Any ideas on Cags within the AFL past “drained”?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yoked

Eric A Longenhagen: Really unbelievable watching him and Peyton Williams stand subsequent to 1 one other with compression shirts on

James: Emmanuel Rodriguez had one other injury-plagued yr. Did he present you something this yr that strikes him otherwise on the growth/bust continuum?

Eric A Longenhagen: The protection offers him a flooring, don’t assume that man busts in a real baseball sense

Bort: Does Logan Evans appear to be a viable massive league starter subsequent yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve a MIRP grade on him in the intervening time and I feel that SEA/SD/TEX/KC group will likely be on the finish of the checklist cycle

Refugee: No query, simply completely happy these are again up and operating – are you discovering you’ve gotten extra time to do these, or did the crowds of Longenheads outdoors your own home persuade you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Somebody I belief and love advised me I used to be too “walled off” now

Eric A Longenhagen: And the location deserves the site visitors these present

Eric A Longenhagen: Plus my coworkers do them and I felt like a chump for forgetting to speak so usually that they simply evaporated

Kevin: You talked about Braden Nett on Successfully Wild for instance of a prospect you’ll ask for if the Padres needed further worldwide pool cash to signal Sasaki. Is he a forty five/45+ man now or is that bonus cash price a 35+ man in your estimation?

Eric A Longenhagen: I simply pulled a reputation from the aether

Ski: In your opinion, are there any instruments or abilities which can be a little bit of a blind spot for the scouting trade as an entire? Both as a result of they’re not emphasised appropriately in evaluations or simply troublesome to judge basically.

Eric A Longenhagen: Precise day-to-day make-up is so powerful (particularly for me), protection might be powerful too in case you’re not utilizing video to get take care of take care of look. For analysts, bodily projection eludes them and their fashions (except they’re utilizing language modeling populated by scouting reviews, which some groups do)

Toshi: Thanks for doing this. Is there anybody within the Mariers’ system who can play 3B on the main stage sooner or later?

Eric A Longenhagen: You’re welcome, bud. I feel Cole Younger might be an okay quick time period choice at principally any infield spot. His lack of energy wouldn’t be superb at third however I feel he’d be okay. Ultimately, Colt Emerson (extra juice, not nearly as good a defender), Tai Peete (uncooked, immense projection), or possibly Felnin Celestin may do it, however that group feels 2 or extra years away, a minimum of

Nathan: Why was Chase DeLauter within the AFL if he wasn’t going to play? I learn his lack of at bats as proof that his foot is bugging him once more… or am I simply being paranoid?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel they need him to get reps with out placing him in danger, name it “load administration”. I solely noticed him twice, it was irritating for me however I get it. We’re definiely at a spot with him the place the harm persistence alters his “worth”

Lord Thunder: Brock Wilken. Nonetheless a future energy bat for the Brewers or not a GUY?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s labored actually onerous to make himself as lean and athletic as he’s develop into. Bat pace remains to be there. He hasn’t been a Prime 100 man for me due to the considerations I’ve had in regards to the hit software (which have performed out) however there’s nonetheless a lot energy there that I’m not prepared to jot down him off

Alec: See something from Cayden Wallace within the AFL? How’s he monitoring because the commerce

Eric A Longenhagen: Solely performed in 3 video games, by no means noticed him

Dino Radja: Does Grant Taylor make the highest 100 this offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I feel so. Stuff plus projection given his lack of reps. He’ll be towards the very again due to reduction danger however I feel he’ll be on there

Mariners: Do you retain Harry Ford at catcher at this level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, that place is so grueling that you just’re gonna want our bodies again there.

Eric A Longenhagen: Harry can catch half time and play OF half time and be in your group with Dumper.

GA Blood: Did Thomas Saggese show any enhancements in plate self-discipline within the Fall League? I used to be fairly shocked at his feedback about with the ability to hit every thing within the interview Laurila posted with him.

Eric A Longenhagen: He has not. He’s a brilliant powerful eval, he and Nick Kurtz have been the 2 hardest for me to nail down out right here.

Eric A Longenhagen: Saggese’s forearms and arms appear to be they belong to a unique particular person than the remainder of his physique

Eric A Longenhagen: He can actually swing it, however yeah he’s been chase inclined out right here

wheelhouse: is caleb durbin’s energy ceiling as little as the 2024 exit velo numbers would point out, or is there any cause to imagine accidents dragged these down

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s so quick levered and on time to drag so usually that I wager he out slugs his uncooked energy. Is it sufficient for him to be a daily 2B/3B? No, however I feel he’ll be a pleasant little utility man.

PhuchAltuve: Any yankees prospects trying like gamers within the afl?

Eric A Longenhagen: Carlos LaGrange may be, he’s simply nonetheless so uncooked. Garrett Martin has had a pleasant AFL however he’s extra an honorable point out sort man for me.

Invoice G: Long run who would you reasonably have, Chourio or Merrill?  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Ooof that’s powerful. Merrill? Gimme the lefty stick and particular really feel for the barrel.

Harold: Did Rocker present sufficient this yr to maneuver up from the 40+ tier for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: How excessive? IDK simply but

Nick: Form of had a basic Prime X Prospects checklist query that I’d love to listen to your thought course of on.

Say you’ve gotten a high 100 prospects checklist.  The way in which I feel I’d take into consideration making my rankings is that, if I have been a GM of a generic group (no explicit wants, surpluses, or home windows to compete/not compete in), I’d be prepared to commerce the 54th prospect for the 53rd (even when simply barely) however not vice versa.

My basic sense, although, is that prospect lists don’t are inclined to mirror this exactly.

What would you say your guiding ideas are for rating one prospect in entrance of one other?  And in what methods — and, extra importantly, why! — do you’ve gotten it differ from “most precious in a generic commerce”?

Eric A Longenhagen: The thought train you’re doing — “would I commerce X for Y?” — is certainly a query I ask myself when placing any checklist collectively, high 100 or group. After we’re speaking in regards to the 50 FV tier (which is massive relative to the others on the Prime 100), I’m prioritizing gamers with abilities/traits that I feel give them a better flooring. That’s 1) up the center protection, 2) contact ability, 3) proximity to MLB. So in case you have a look at any of my high 100 lists you’re gonna see the groupings like that. Jacob Wilson윌슨 will likely be greater than Owen Caissie, and many others.

Eric A Longenhagen: However yeah, as soon as the gamers are comparable sufficient that the stuff you talked about (wants, surpluses, or home windows to compete/not compete in) is what dictates your reply to “who would I reasonably have” you get into this space the place heuristics are a information

RWFTF: How a lot does a Synergy Sports activities subscription value?

Eric A Longenhagen: Half of my pre-covid journey price range

KingRaj4826: What are your ideas on Nestor German of the Orioles? He had a 1.59 ERA with a 2.17 FIP in 73.2 IP throughout A & A+ in his professional debut this yr.

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s an actual prospect. 93-94, excessive slot downhill angle, actual slider command and depth, slower curveball with in-zone utility…Nothing tremendous nasty but it surely works

Eric A Longenhagen: backend SP/swingman sort

Mlong: Prediction on when the following MLB enlargement draft happens and what the foundations can be?

Eric A Longenhagen: No concept however I do know I wish to be concerned

visitor: with Endy Rodriguez getting back from harm and his first MLB season a battle offensively, do you continue to imagine in his upside together with his minor league observe document?

Eric A Longenhagen: I do, love his swing and really feel for the barrel, assume it’s necessary to see the place his physique is at popping out of rehab as a result of some guys get sturdy after they don’t have anything to do however elevate, and hat’s the one factor he was lacking.

Wyatt: Langford had a great rookie season however fell far in need of the hype. Do you assume he takes a step ahead this yr, or will he be overmatched by excessive heaters once more?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m nonetheless all in

Colton: Any cause why Kurtz has been so onerous to nail down specifically?

Eric A Longenhagen: He checks some very particular containers (massive man with quick levers, vertical bat path) however I feel he’s a foul athlete and the bar at 1B is soooo excessive, and I’m traumatized by Vaughn/Tork….

MattM: How would you evaluate Seth Hernandez and Dylan Lesko as prospects at their similar age (heading into their draft yr)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sethy is a greater athlete with higher bodily projection. Lesko’s fastball had higher form and motion.

MDS1080: STL appears like they are going to fill in holes of their pitching employees for 2025 by tapping their farm system.  Another groups prone to deal with inner promotion over FA acquisition?

Eric A Longenhagen: TB, COL, OAK, CHC

Eric A Longenhagen: Really feel like there are a variety of near-ready hitters in these spots, kinda assume all 4 golf equipment may sneak up on us subsequent yr

Eric A Longenhagen: Particularly Oakland. Lawrence Butler is gonna have 40 bombs subsequent yr.

ML: That is most likely extra of a professional scouting query however I’d love to listen to your opinion on why Tork has struggled a lot to fulfill expectations.

Eric A Longenhagen: Tight decrease physique, can’t dip and scoop softer stuff.

Visitor: Did something about Jordan Westberg’s efficiency final yr shock you? As an Orioles fan, watching him play alot I feel he’s higher than marketed…

Eric A Longenhagen: I 45’d him considering he’d get labored up round his arms, he’s a Dude.

Mark: The Giants yo-yo-ing of Marco Luciano makes me marvel about their confidence in him. Do you assume he’s a serious league common for them?

Dipoto: Suppose Colt Emerson turns into a high 5 prospect this yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everybody, I’m gonna get engaged on the A’s prospect checklist now. Search for me on TV tonight and tomorrow, I’m the good-looking one. Thanks for coming to the location this week, please contemplate a sub in case you don’t have already got one.