Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat- 10/18

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from lovely Tempe the place the temps have lastly dipped after one thing like 20 days in a row of file highs.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m going to the 2 east valley Fall League video games at present and need to put the bow on one other dispatch of notes so I’ll probably hold this chat tight to the highest of the hour.

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay let’s boogie…

Sox fan: Hey Eric – thanks for all of your prospects content material. Questioning if you’ll have any updates on the upcoming worldwide signing intervals. Notably all for any Purple Sox associated intel. Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, I’ve bought a bunch of massive $ names and group for the following couple of years in my notes and I’ll be constructing out the $1mil+ model of The Board for publication within the subsequent few weeks…

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have any Boston guys for ’25 in my notes, they’ve tended to unfold out medium sized bonuses throughout their complete class quite than spend $2mil+ on anyone man and I think about that’s the case once more

Victoria: There was speak of the Cubs buying and selling from their loaded prime of the system. Individuals normally counsel Triantos or Alcántara, however what in the event that they determined Mo Baller wasn’t going to make it as a catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: Then yeah, his worth within the eyes of group who assume he can catch can be means greater than it might be to the Cubs in that state of affairs and it’d extra make sense to maneuver him

Matt Thompson: Bummed I’m not making it out to the AFL this yr and I’ll be residing vicariously by all of the movies I watch through Twitter. With the standard of pitching out right here being the worst it has been in years, how does that impact  your general high quality of seems to be you’re getting? Particularly on gamers you haven’t had go by Arizona but?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hey Matty, sorry I received’t be seeing you at FPAZ then. Yeah, the hitting setting right here is normally nutty (attributable to pitcher high quality and altitude, and so forth.) and that’s the case once more this yr as we watch at the very least one man are available in and stroll/hit a bunch of dudes and completely alter the vibe and give-a-frick quotient of the sport we’re all watching…

Eric A Longenhagen: The “look” (stuff like athleticism, bat pace, any visible element) and the “efficiency” (everybody’s stats for the six week league) are nonetheless straightforward sufficient to separate to get one thing out of the league though you must contextualize it

Roman: Padres followers are actually excited for Salas and De Vries. Even in the event you assume they’ll be pretty much as good as Merrill at 20, that places their ETA at 2027. What do you assume is a sensible expectation?

Eric A Longenhagen: ’28-’29 someplace in there

Eric A Longenhagen: that’ simply their inventory 40-man timeline, which I feel is a match for each guys. Possibly De Vries catches up by a yr jsut as a result of enjoying MIF just isn’t as nuanced and tough as catching.

Reuben: Any smoke on growth with Oakland and Tampa transferring?

Eric A Longenhagen: In the event that they’ll have to vacate the Trop for a whole season then it’d be cool/logical for the Rays to pilot growth in Charlotte or Nashville kinda just like the Hornets did in OKC after Katrina.

Eric A Longenhagen: In the event that they’re solely gonna have to remain out of the Trop till mid-’25 or so then I wager they play at a spring facility, even when it’s the Braves new spot in North Port or one thing like that quite than their very own in Port Charlotte

Eric A Longenhagen: From what I’ve heard there’s nonetheless lots of evaluation of the Trop’s situation to do earlier than any avenues are literally mentioned.

The Hoffer: Curious in the event you noticed Eriq Swan final evening. Lot of attention-grabbing traits there however can he stick as a starter/what’s his ceiling?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did Mesa/Scottsdale final evening, haven’t run into Swan but.

Jon: Kristian Campbell has flown up prospect boards, and there are reportedly folks within the Sox FO who assume he’s the very best prospect within the system.  What are your ideas on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s within the prime 4 for certain and I spoke to a non-Sox individual yesterday who thinks you may make a coherent argument for KC over each Anthony and Marcelo. Talked to somebody who tried to sooth my apprehension about Campbell’s swing by placing the Hunter Pence comp on him

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Is it the warmth or the altitude on the AFL that’s resulting in the balls flying >110 mph? Both means, how do you as a prospects author chip off EV or else modify energy grades when the setting is nutty like within the PCL?

Eric A Longenhagen: For certain. I watched Saggese barely hit a ball (95 mph exit) that snuck out to the other subject. The wind, strain, every little thing is at present shifting right here as our seasons lastly change. There are dudes with enormous juice right here, although. If I can isolate exit velos from AFL and examine them to everybody’s common season knowledge I ponder if there will likely be a constant delta throughout the pattern

O’Malley: WHat does Lawlar’s enjoying time appear like subsequent yr?

Eric A Longenhagen: Obvioualy let’s watch to see what they do with Geno’s membership possibility as a result of in the event that they don’t choose it up then Lawlar’s gonna be in there nearly instantly. I feel he’s going to play a ton however I wager Perdomo opens the yr because the starter…

Eric A Longenhagen: Any damage on their infield in all probability slides Geraldo to that spot and Lawlar into the lineup at SS.

Eric A Longenhagen: So let’s say, like 400 PA for Lawlar subsequent yr?

Catherine: Are Travis Sykora and Jarlin Susana prime 100 candidates going into this cycle? Early proof of enchancment on the a part of Nationals pitching dev (and if that’s the case any wider proof within the system?) or simply two guys with nice stuff who occurred to place it collectively?

Eric A Longenhagen: Undoubtedly candidates however not locks. Nats dev enchancment can be one thing I’d really feel extra snug declaring as soon as I’ve achieved that system and touched base on dozens of their guys.

Visitor: do you have got any perception on Briceno or Liranzo’s long run projections as soon as they get to Detroit?  Do you assume both of them stick behind the plate?  If not, is the batted ball profile of both of them robust sufficient to justify a 1B or DH spot on the subsequent stage?   Simply curious to the kind of upside you assume both might or might not possess

Eric A Longenhagen: Liranzo has appeared tough again there to date this Fall however that’s nearly all the time the case right here. You’re gassed and catching a complete new workers of men. I feel each Briceno and Liranzo have the bodily traits of long-term catchers (dimension and sturdiness are so essential) who, over time, present they’ll climate the beating catchers take and nonetheless produce. I really feel higher about Liranzo profiling at 1B/DH as a result of it’s such nutty switch-hitting energy. Briceno’s energy surge right here (he hit extra homers in a single sport than he had all season) is extra a product of the setting, he solely actually smoked a type of homers.

Matt: Since you reside within the space, curious when you have you observed in the event that they’ve made any progress on renovations at Tempe Diablo Stadium? (Pitching/hitting labs, new clubhouse)

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve solely been within the stadium itself these days and never down by the power that sits in the midst of the backfields

Mike R.: It looks like not a single Yankee prospect apart from Agustin Ramirez lived as much as expectations this yr. Hate to be grasping contemplating the main league success, however went went mistaken in our farm system?

Eric A Longenhagen: I suppose I’d say I feel Lombard’s season was a hit however in any other case I see what you imply..

Eric A Longenhagen: I used to be not on Everson Pereira so his season doesn’t actually shock me. The truth that so lots of the younger pitchers barely performed (Chalniel Arias, Henry Lalane) was not nice. So lots of the high-upside parts of the system are in Complicated/A ball.

Ely: How involved ought to we be about Jun-Seok Shim? Even in tiny AFL pattern, his stuff doesn’t look proper.

Eric A Longenhagen: Seemed fairly terrible the day I noticed him. Sitting 90-91, tremendous quick and unathletic stride, breaking ball had okay depth however was straightforward to identify out of his hand.

Phil: Have you ever seen Danny Kirwin? He has an incredible story and I’d love him to make it.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, funky method angle and massive time sweeper. Has a shot to make it.

Jim: What do you see Walcott doing subsequent yr, each in efficiency in addition to place?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is perhaps the very best prospect in baseball by the tip of the yr

Jason N: A Padres beat author lately made the declare that internally, the group more and more views DeVries as a greater prospect than Salas.  You coming round to that opinion, too?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wanna see how Leo developments on protection. If he’s a 2B then nah, gimme the catcher. I feel it’s fantastic to be extra assured that Leo will truly hit than Ethan.

Uncle Spike: What number of instances do it is advisable to see a prospect earlier than you might be snug placing a grade on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: With out assistance from knowledge and video in any respect? Most likely like 4 or 5 video games with at the very least one BP and infield earlier than I get a take a look at each instrument.

Visitor: Hey Eric, do you have got any up to date ideas on Alex Freeland because you final wrote him up earlier than the season? Had a giant yr besides he struggled at AAA.

Eric A Longenhagen: Nonetheless lots of swing and miss taking place there, large time arm would possibly enable him to play SS regardless of missing typical vary. Assume he needs to be greater than I had him on final yr’s Dodger’s checklist however I don’t essentially assume he’s a prime 100 man or something.

Lord Thunder: Tommy Troy. A giant sport final evening, however actually struggled earlier than that, together with the common season. Is he nonetheless a prime 100 man?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a type of guys who I’ll take all 6 weeks to eval earlier than feeling like I’ve to make a name. Bat might merely not be within the hitting zone for very lengthy inflicting a number of Okay’s, is likely to be higher suited as an affect utility kind.

Kate: Did 2024 elevate any considerations for you with Drew Gilbert (apart from sturdiness)?  Or was this only a yr misplaced to damage and he’s nonetheless the identical man?

Eric A Longenhagen: His head is flying out a ton, he’s not monitoring the ball like I need to see from a man who was projected to make lots of contact. Evaluating his CF protection on tape will likely be a figuring out issue, I’ve seen him enjoying a nook in video games out right here to date.

Kate: Does Drake Baldwin have the athleticism to play any non-catcher positions to get his bat within the MLB lineup?  Heard they could have been contemplating him within the outfield?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s constructed like a catcher, I feel he and Harry Ford are offseason commerce candidates.

doughboy: The Tigers have achieved an incredible job of late growing beginning pitching arms. Is Rayner Castillo subsequent in line? Ideas on his projectability?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not tremendous on him off one look right here. Under avg athlete, t95, sitting 93, good slider. fringe 40 man RP for me

Michael: First time going to Arizona fall league any recommendation? Which parks ought to I prioritize?

Eric A Longenhagen: Examine the schedule throughout your dates right here and keep someplace you may max out video games however reduce journey. take a look at the times with potential double ups and eat someplace enjoyable in between. test ASU’s fall schedule and work in one in all their scrimmages in the event you can. I’d quite keep East Valley than West in a vacuum.

Uncle Spike: If you find yourself scouting AFL video games, are you moving into with a handful of men you might be watching intently or are you evaluating everybody on the sphere?

Eric A Longenhagen: Todos del peloteros.

Lord Thunder: One present minor leaguer who’s a slam dunk — or near it — being a beginning MLB SS. Who ya’ bought?

Steve: Appears to be like such as you’ve been one of many greater guys on Spencer Jones. His statline had a pleasant final 6 weeks of the season – what’s your present opinion of him and do you assume he can modify to repair the swing and miss points?

Eric A Longenhagen: He appeared a multitude nearly all yr however I’m nonetheless inclined to wager on long run expertise and projection. He’s going to have such uncommon lefty energy that I’ll be snug with being the excessive man on his this offseason. He’s a flawed participant however I feel he’ll finally make a giant energy affect.

Pam: Zhyir Hope shortly ascending to be a prime 50 prospect? 25? Persistence, energy…solely 19…

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s solely 19 however his physique is maxed so projecting on his physicality a ton doesn’t make sense. He’s additionally not an excellent outfielder proper now and I feel his hit instrument (or at the very least the analysis of his hit instrument) stays fairly unstable. Having stated that, the facility/pace combo and his capacity to provide energy in a brief mechanical distance is fairly substantial. He is likely to be a prime 100 man this offseason based mostly on his upside however I’m not gonna prime 25 him or something like that.

Doink: Ideas on the improved energy that Tre’ Morgan is seemingly exhibiting?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel I’m in

Eric A Longenhagen: really feel higher about him than I did about Manzardo after his AFL look

Andre Thee Big: What are the percentages that Nolan McLean sticks as a starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I feel they’re okay, kinda within the state of affairs Schwellenbach was the place you wanna wager that he’ll enhance as soon as he specializes

Justin: What do you make of Jackson Merrill’s season, did anybody see this coming?

Eric A Longenhagen: however then i slid him getting into ’24 pondering he’d find yourself enjoying LF. No one might have seen him enjoying a great CF having had zero reps there, ever.

Eric A Longenhagen: lol take a look at Druw and Amador up there, although jfc

EonADS: Parker Messick took large steps ahead this season in Cleveland’s system. Dominated AA hitters utterly and improved throughout the board, together with inclining velocity, higher command, and an elevated ground-ball price. Does he appear like a 50 FV to you? As a result of he does to me.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s not loopy

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: May you compromise a wager for me – which of you/Tess/Travis covers the mid-Atlantic?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tess has taken a step again from the location, Travis lives in Kansas (and I wager he will get employed by a group this offseason) and he and I each cowl every little thing. I head house to PA and drive up and down I-95 yearly to see Jap, Int’l, Sally League stuff

Andre Thee Big: You had been the one analyst I learn who stated that Mark Vientos had improved sufficient defensively to be a reputable third baseman. Congrats.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks? I imply, he’s not nice over there.

Grandal Richuk: Are there any prospects proper now the place you’re keen to disregard the information you have got on them?

Eric A Longenhagen: The model-driven NPC sorts who you must speak the data-heavy analysts out of loving

Eddy: Omg, been ready for a chat to lastly ask you — the place do you sit on Mick Abel these days? Future RP?

Eric A Longenhagen: wanting increasingly like that, i’ve bought him towards the again of the 100 with all the opposite robust armed guys with zero really feel

Eric A Longenhagen: Oop, we’re previous 10. I’ve gotta break up. Nice questions once more this week, together with many I didn’t get to. Trying ahead to hopping on with you all once more subsequent Friday. Go try the FG Youtube channel for Fall League video. See you subsequent friday