Dylan Ceases Permitting Hits, Tosses No-No in Washington

This has been a comparatively down 12 months for the no-hitter. Coming into play yesterday, Ronel Blanco’s masterpiece throughout the first week of the season was the one no-no of the season, a far cry from the first half of 2021, which noticed six solo no-hitters in 41 days, together with the ever-increasing variety of mixed efforts within the fashionable period. And whereas the rookie Blanco was the unlikely hero in baseball’s first no-hitter of 2024, it was a longtime star who broke the almost four-month drought: Dylan Stop.

We haven’t written about Stop since his blockbuster commerce to San Diego, so let’s verify in on his debut season with the Padres. By most metrics, he’s taken a leap ahead along with his new crew. His 32.5% strikeout charge and seven.6% stroll charge are each the very best of his profession, the latter mark an enormous growth from somebody who’s at all times run a stroll charge within the double digits. Each PitchingBot and Pitching+ view 2024 as his most interesting season; his 3.03 FIP and three.01 SIERA are additionally private bests, and his 3.50 ERA sits behind solely his mark in 2022, when he completed because the AL Cy Younger runner-up.

The largest adjustment that’s yielded outcomes for Stop has been an improved capacity (or willingness) to throw each his fastball and slider within the strike zone, every touchdown in there at above-average charges. For the previous half-decade, few particular person choices from starters have been as deadly as Stop’s slider, which has generated a +72 run worth over that interval. Its mixture of upper-80s velocity and downward motion makes hitters look completely powerless, continuously swinging over sliders that drop beneath the zone whereas failing to barrel up these thrown in even the juiciest spots. Since 2020, Stop’s sliders thrown down the guts of the plate have registered a +34 run worth, a full dozen greater than anybody else on such pitches.

Whereas throwing extra strikes has labored nicely total for Stop, this adjustment has additionally contributed to the one below-average piece of his sport in 2024 – he’s allowed loads of arduous contact, particularly in opposition to his fastball. His .392 xwOBACON allowed is about 25 factors above the league common, and much worse than the .313 mark he allowed in 2022, his greatest season results-wise. As a pitcher with an solely north-south arsenal (none of his fastball, slider, or curveball averages greater than 3.2 inches of lateral motion), he’s one of many extra excessive fly ball pitchers in baseball, and hard-hit fly balls imply bother. As we undergo Stop’s no-hit outing, we’ll see how he retains hitters away from his fastball. He earned 18 swinging strikes and held the Nationals lineup to only three arduous hits, solely one in all which was within the air.

Stop was dominant from the very first pitch, racking up 5 strikeouts and three weak grounders his first time via the order. The one blemish on his line was a first-inning stroll to Lane Thomas, however Stop and catcher Luis Campusano rapidly erased him as he tried to steal second. On this first cross via Washington’s lineup, Stop confirmed a transparent change in pitch combine from his norm. Whereas he sometimes throws sliders 42% of the time, in roughly equal proportion to his fastball, his first 9 batters noticed 23 sliders in comparison with simply 14 fastballs, together with a couple of knuckle curves. He leaned on the slider all through the beginning, as his 53% total utilization marked his second-highest slider charge of the season.

The choice to throw extra breaking balls on this begin doubtless wasn’t a particular sport plan to neutralize this Nationals lineup, which ranks in the course of the pack at dealing with right-handed breaking balls however performs dreadfully in opposition to fastballs, particularly heaters with as a lot velocity and carry as Stop’s. It’s potential that he merely had the slider working greatest yesterday, as evidenced by his large cluster of them noticed on the backside or simply beneath the strike zone, and with the very best model of the slider got here the very best model of Stop.

Sliders constituted over half of Stop’s pitches in opposition to six of the primary 9 hitters he confronted, together with Nationals nine-hole hitter Jacob Younger. After rapidly claiming strikes one and two on excessive fastballs, he pivoted to the slider – lacking a tad low for ball one, however nonetheless hitting his spot on the gloveside. Younger stayed affected person, taking one other breaker that ended up a lot nearer to the zone, however a 3rd providing in the identical spot was simply an excessive amount of for him; he chased and got here up empty.

The 2-strike barrage of sliders was definitely on Younger’s thoughts when he got here again up within the sixth, and Stop continued proper the place he left off, throwing a first-pitch slider low that Younger unsuccessfully tried to bunt into play. (Be happy to debate the morals of this within the feedback.) After one other slider missed outdoors, Stop modified his plan of assault, now making an attempt to place Younger away with a fastball. His subsequent three pitches, all heaters, earned a whiff, a foul ball, and one other whiff for the strikeout.

Two swinging strikes on immaculately positioned fastballs are pure pleasure to observe, however I need to look a bit deeper on the foul ball sandwiched between them. This was one in all 12 fastballs that Washington hitters fouled off on the day, in comparison with simply three balls put in play – a wonderful ratio, particularly for a pitcher whose fastballs can typically get tattooed.

He was capable of keep away from barrels on his fastball regardless of its lack of horizontal life due to how steadily he threw his slider, which drops greater than a ball thrown with out spin, an unlimited distinction from the 17 inches of rise on his fastball. Many of the dozen fastballs fouled away had been hit within the air, and none had been squared up – these had been balls hit above the barrel, removed from harmful had they been put in play. Whereas many hitters say their technique is to “sit on the fastball” and react to every part else, the sport plan is flipped when Stop throws a downward-breaking slider 53% of the time.

The opposite element of Stop’s dominance on this outing might be seen from a fast look on the Hawkeye readings – he was throwing absolute gasoline. Whereas his 97 mph common fastball on the season already makes him one of many hardest throwers amongst starters (trailing solely Paul Skenes, José Soriano, Hunter Greene, and Jared Jones in common fastball velo), he sat at 98.3 in his no-hitter, his highest common fastball velocity in any begin this 12 months.

Three of Stop’s heaters reached triple digits, together with two in that sixth-inning strikeout of Younger. He’s at all times saved a little bit of gasoline within the tank to throw more durable on the finish of begins, maybe a vital adaptation as a two-pitch pitcher to raised deal with his third time via the lineup. His inning-by-inning splits aren’t as excessive as, say, peak Justin Verlander, who typically began within the low-90s earlier than reaching again for triple digits within the seventh, however he rationed his vitality sufficient to proceed hitting 98 and 99 as he chased his no-hitter. Seeing that kind of stuff late within the sport from a starter who completed with 114 pitches is absurd, and it’s no marvel opposing hitters couldn’t take care of Stop’s fastball whilst they gained familiarity with it.

As six no-hit innings turned to seven, viewers tuned into the sport, their consideration fastened not simply on Stop’s no-hit bid but in addition on his pitch rely, an inevitable actuality of pitchers’ fastidiously manicured workloads at the moment. Since 2020, 40 starters have been faraway from video games after finishing a minimum of six innings with out permitting successful, 11 with fewer than the 94 pitches Stop had thrown via seven. However Stop has an extended leash than most – his 13 begins with a minimum of 100 pitches tempo the league, whereas his common pitch rely per sport is second to solely Greene. Supervisor Mike Shildt thought of relieving Stop, however the ace talked the skipper out of it, and he was allowed to get the final six outs of his try at historical past.

Stop cruised via the eighth, hanging out James Wooden along with his eleventh and remaining slider whiff of the sport, earlier than coaxing fast groundouts from Keibert Ruiz and Luis García Jr.; the body took simply 9 pitches to finish, bringing his complete to 103. Within the ninth, he appeared simply as recent as he did at first pitch, sitting at 99 mph along with his fastball and 90 with the slider, immaculately hitting his spots. Ildemaro Vargas grounded out an eight-pitch at-bat, fouling off pitch after pitch earlier than weakly rolling over on the sixth slider he noticed. Subsequent up was Younger, who grounded out on his first pitch. Stop lastly accomplished the 324th no-hitter in main league historical past and the second ever for a Padres pitcher when he bought former San Diego shortstop CJ Abrams to weakly line out to proper discipline — Washington’s solely batted ball with an anticipated batting common above .500.

Together with his slider-first strategy and premium velocity, Stop was in peak type for this defining accomplishment. The Padres have wanted each little bit of his excellence this season, as accidents to Joe Musgrove, who threw the franchise’s first no-hitter in 2021, and Yu Darvish have thinned out the pitching employees as they navigate a good NL Wild Card race. And as a top-10 pitcher in baseball with a bit of historical past now connected to his identify, Stop is exhibiting that he’s the ace his crew wants.