Travis Ice and I’ve begun early work on the Los Angeles Angels and Sacramento Athletics prospect lists, and since each franchises’ prospects are on the Mesa Photo voltaic Sox roster, I spent most of final week seeing no matter sport they had been taking part in.
At this level within the Fall League, the leaders in video games performed have laced up their spikes solely eight or 9 occasions. Something you’ve examine this yr’s AFL thus far has encompassed simply two weeks of part-time play for any given participant. Bear in mind it is a hitter-friendly league for quite a lot of each developmental and environmental causes, and that triple slash traces on this league should not a dependable proxy for expertise.
Tre’ Morgan, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Offensive requirements at first base are fairly excessive, and although the collective efficiency of this yr’s group was down relative to latest norms (by form of so much), it’s nonetheless a place from which we anticipate good gamers and prospects to supply impression energy. Morgan has been a related prospect since highschool, however a relative lack of energy has tended to cap his projection into extra of a part-time first base/outfield position.
In the course of the 2024 common season it seemed like Morgan was extra usually taking max-effort swings and promoting out for energy. He reached Double-A and slugged .483 throughout three ranges, however his middling uncooked power and opposite-field tendency as a hitter (plus elevated chase charges relative to his profession norms) urged this was perhaps not the very best strategy for him. Within the Fall League, Morgan has been extra balanced, actually taking monumental hacks solely in favorable counts. He’s nonetheless stinging the ball in a method that signifies he’ll be a doubles machine, and he appears much less susceptible to fastballs up and away than he did in the course of the summer season. We don’t have a method of actually figuring out how Morgan will deal with elevated huge league fastballs till he faces them, however a extra balanced, contact-oriented type of hitting goes to present him a significantly better probability of overlaying the highest of the zone and being a extra full hitter. (An apart: Watch A’s prospect Denzel Clarke go first-to-third on the video’s 1:55 mark.)
I believe absolutely the ceiling for his manufacturing appears one thing like Brandon Belt’s or Daniel Murphy’s pre-Juiced Ball period statline. Extra doubtless Morgan’s output will look one thing like Ji Man Choi’s or LaMonte Wade Jr.’s. Morgan just isn’t a man who’s going to hit 20 homers per yr, however a heady, well-rounded offensive skillset coupled together with his wonderful, profile-seasoning first base protection make him higher than the 40 FV grade participant I evaluated him as in the course of the yr. He’s making a case to be elevated into the again of this offseason’s High 100 record.
Caleb Durbin, UTIL, New York Yankees
I gave Durbin quick shrift final yr even after his .353/.456/.588 line within the 2023 Fall League. He had a great 2024 at Triple-A Scranton, together with a robust second half after he returned from a fractured wrist. Durbin is brief — actually quick, he’s 5-foot-6 — however he’s not small; he’s constructed like somewhat tank. His compact, stocky construct helps maintain his swing quick and persistently on time to drag the baseball. His high quality of contact in 2024 was commensurate with a man who slugs beneath .400 on the huge league degree, however he was coping with an harm that usually impacts contact high quality for some time after restoration.
Maybe most significantly, Durbin appears high-quality at each second and third base and has additionally been taking part in all around the outfield. Defensive versatility is perhaps his key to being rostered persistently. Durbin ran a jailbreak 4.10 for me final week, however his home-to-first occasions have been near 4.4 seconds on regular swings. That’s not blazing and slower than what’s typical of a good heart fielder, however any form of outfield viability would assist the previous Division-III standout turn into an unbelievable huge leaguer. Durbin has performed sparingly in heart area throughout his profession, and it’s going to be very troublesome to guage him there this Fall League until he begins getting reps there each day, which I believe is unlikely. It’s extra of a factor to observe turn into subsequent spring.
Kemp Alderman, OF, Miami Marlins
Alderman, a 2023 second spherical pick of Ole Miss who had a number of the greatest exit velocities in that draft class, is presently main the AFL with six house runs. He hit one on Friday at a whopping 119.5 mph. It went out on a line, ricocheting off the aspect of the batter’s eye, which you’ll be able to see on this body:
Friday, Marlins outfielder Kemp Alderman hit a homer that left Salt River Fields in an actual hurry, at 119.5 mph. pic.twitter.com/HBvj2F0oud
— FanGraphs Prospects (@FG_Prospects) October 22, 2024
Like Durbin, Alderman missed time in 2024 with a damaged hand. It’s good to see Alderman hitting with elite peak energy coming off of this specific harm, however I’d advise everybody to pump the breaks on his general prospectdom at the moment. He masses his palms so deep, excessive, and late that I fear he’ll battle in opposition to higher velocity as he climbs the minors. Although Alderman’s regular-season strikeout charges don’t elevate alarm, I don’t assume 30-ish video games at every A-ball degree is a significant pattern, particularly for a draft pick of an SEC college. It’s high-quality to be hopeful that I’m mistaken or that Alderman will make crucial changes as soon as higher stuff begins beating him, and he clearly has the facility to clear the offensive bar at a nook outfield spot. However although he’s raking out right here, he doesn’t have an opinion-altering look. I do know Marlins followers have gone by way of this so much currently, the place they’ve a minor leaguer with elite energy however an inadequate hit instrument to profile (Peyton Burdick, Griffin Conine, Jerar Encarnacion), and I fear Alderman is one other of this ilk.
Devin Kirby, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Alert Ben Lindbergh, now we have a knuckler. The 25-year-old Kirby was an undrafted free agent out of UConn in 2023 and spent most of 2024 in Fort Myers both on the Complicated or FSL roster. His knuckleball must be extra constant for him to be thought-about a prospect in any respect, however for now it’s a variety of enjoyable to observe a man whose major pitch is his knuckler.
The Arizona Fall League has a knuckleballer this yr, Twins righty Devin Kirby. pic.twitter.com/Z6c7ik6vH4
— FanGraphs Prospects (@FG_Prospects) October 18, 2024
Board Additions
Ryan Birchard, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Henry Bolte, OF, Oakland Athletics
These gamers have had their scouting studies added to the Fall League tab on The Board. Head over there to take a look at their instrument grades and scouting studies.
