| 12:01 |
: Embedding on fangraphs web site is damaged. Lacking opening <
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| 12:01 |
 Dan Szymborski: Uh oh
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| 12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: OK, this appears to be fastened now
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| 12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: However I’ll should kind fairly slowly since no person’s in right here but
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| 12:04 |
: So I used to be taking a look at Dylan Crews’ first dwelling run. It was a homer in 30/30 parks, however had an anticipated BA of like .330…I perceive {that a} 30/30 homer might not have a 1.000 xBA, however isn’t it a bit odd that what was apparently a no-doubter was by xBA a lot as a rule an out?
|
| 12:04 |
: My final query makes me surprise what the ‘worst’ 30/30 ballparks dwelling run by xBA appeared like
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| 12:04 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means actually checked out this as I’m unconvinced by the utility
|
| 12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: loads of park results are *oblique* and never simply park configuration
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| 12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Like in Oakland, a few of these 30/30 homers would have been foul outs earlier within the PA
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| 12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: and it wind/temperature/humidity results from stadium to stadium
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| 12:06 |
: how the hell is Eugenio doing this? I assume ZiPS thinks the crew choice is an efficient deal by now?
|
| 12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: I requested AI to make a dramatization of what occurs once I break the pc
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| 12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 12:08 |
: it’s okay, a few of us know the best way to copy into the jotcast hyperlink!
|
| 12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: In the beginning, it was solely eight of you!
|
| 12:09 |
: Ought to the MLB think about shifting to a dice baseball as an alternative of a spherical ball?
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| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: I’d say no on that
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| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: Thought it is perhaps ENTERTAINIGN at a decrease degree
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| 12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: Oh, I didn’t even reply the Eugenio query. Sorry I’m distractable
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| 12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would have anticipated to be mroe more likely to decide up the choice than not earlier than the season!
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| 12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s mainly a $13 million determination since there’s a $2 million buyout. Preseason, ZiPS had him at 2.0 WAR in 2025 with a 98 wRC+. Now it has him as much as 2.6 WAR
|
| 12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Given the place Arizona is expertise smart, with a mid-80sish win roster, it’s onerous to not decide up the choice
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| 12:13 |
: How has Oneil Cruz’s bounce again from harm effected his projections?
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| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Up a bit, however mroe from elevated enjoying time than icnreased perfromance
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| 12:14 |
: the house run in x ballparks, does it assume the identical projected distance all over the place together with COL/AZ?
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| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: You *can* get the statcast model that makes use of environmental knowledge
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| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: however it appears to be a generalized mannequin, not one particular to the scenario
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| 12:14 |
: Your writing associate Ben did an article on WAR utilizing RE24. Do you like WAR carried out this manner and do you employ this logic in any respect in ZIPS?
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| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t choose this manner, personally
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| 12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s INTERESTING after all
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| 12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: And it wouldn’t actually make a lot sense in ZiPS
|
| 12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: since the advantages of RE24 WAR are as a descriptor of what occurred, not an estimate of future expertise
|
| 12:16 |
: Festa might or might not have a two-start subsequent week. Ought to I danger it or run Woo for a one-start?
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| 12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Actually depends upon whether or not you want quantitative or qualitative class boosts
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| 12:16 |
: It’s nonetheless early, however Jackson Merrill’s batted ball profile looks as if it was designed by a pc program. Laborious line drive up the center, different approach, pulled excessive flyballs, and weak floor balls. Undecided I’ve something so as to add in addition to stating that.
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| 12:17 |
: What’s Flawed with Corbin Burnes?
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m nto satisfied that it’s not only a plip
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: blip
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| 12:17 |
: Okay, pyramid ball then? I’ve had worse concepts.
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: I feel one of many points is that floor balls turn into very bizarre
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: and also you’d presumably kill somebody if the corners are sharp?
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| 12:18 |
: Which a kind of offers would you reasonably have?
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| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: probaby swanson nonetheless
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| 12:19 |
: What are your ideas on how the Padres are dealing with Ethan Salas? Appears unusual to simply let a high prospect battle like this. Final yr they even had him play a couple of video games in Double-A for some motive too?
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| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: They’ve expressed an curiosity in advancing him aggressively. I can’t say for certain, however I’ve gotten the sensation from speaking with those that they really need him catching higher pitchers and that they suppose the offensive half will handle itself
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| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: However Eric would most likely have a greater really feel for that
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| 12:20 |
: Do you know that Christopher Sanchez is third in MLB in fWAR for pitchers?
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| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: I did; he’s been up there all yr!
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| 12:20 |
: Do you suppose the Orioles might have gotten Skubal or Crochet in a trafor Mayo or Basillo, and in that case, will the Orioles remorse not pulling a set off on a deal like that on the deadline?
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| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: OR? No.
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| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly assured that the asks had been *excessive* particularly for Skubal
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| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: And Crochet mainly asserting Operation Shutdown: The Subsequent Era if he didn’t get an extension, he grew to become riskier and fewer helpful
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| 12:21 |
: What sort of deal do you suppose Santander will get?
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| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: 4 or 5 years for 20-25 mill every
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| 12:22 |
: Win or lose with the contract extension of Chapman for the Giants? Protection is clearly elite, however is it value paying for that, a .230 avg, and 20 HRs?
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| 12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: I used to be type of skeptical, however ZiPS suppose it’s tremendous
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| 12:22 |
: pyramid ball sounds good to lastly put Whit Merrifield out of his distress
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| 12:22 |
: t y p i n g s l o w l y . . .
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| 12:22 |
: simply needed to say i appreciated your Joey Votto article. I spent the previous couple of weeks studying all of the native and nationwide retrospectives on his profession and it 1) makes me really feel previous, and a pair of) jogged loads of nice reminiscences of excellent Reds baseball. Can’t await him and Miggy to get inducted collectively!
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| 12:22 |
: I hold attempting to see why Lawrence Butler’s bubble will burst, and there’s nothing. His anticipated stats are higher than precise. Pretty commonplace BB/Okay charges. Every part to my eyes appears so as. Perhaps inflated HR/FB, however he hits the ball onerous.
Is he only a actually good participant who was ignored a bit by prospect rankings? Any concept what transfer to Sacramento might imply for him going ahead? |
| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: I feel one of many points is that he wasn’t some man crushing the minors who was a borderline Ken Phelps All_Star
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| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: He had like a WRC+ within the 90s (UNtranslated) in AAA and I feel one thing like 110 in AA
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| 12:23 |
: do you’ve any intel on why Zach Eflin was so low cost to accumulate in comparison with the opposite beginning pitchers moved on the deadline?
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| 12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: I used to be legitimately stunned
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| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: You may argue that the Jays received extra for 2 months for Kikuchi than the Rays received for a yr and two months of Eflin
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| 12:25 |
: who’s carried out extra in 2024 for his or her future by ZiPS, Matt Shaw or Emmanuel Rodriguez?
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| 12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: Shaw’s five-year projections has improved greater than Rodriguez’s, however ZiPS already appreciated the latter much more than the previous
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| 12:26 |
: What is going to the Orioles’ infield and catching appear to be at first of 2027?
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| 12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: would possibly rely on Basallo’s growth
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| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: however because it stands, Adley/Mayo/Westburg/Henderson/Holliday is clearly a fairly good wager
|
| 12:27 |
: Is it heretical so that you can be a soccer fan but when not, what’s your favourite soccer crew?
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| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m a Steelers fan
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| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: I do know, it’s odd to be an Orioles/Steelers fan
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| 12:28 |
Dan Szymborski: however I used to be too younger for the Colts and my dad’s household was from Pittsburgh and I had already adopted a crew earlier than the Browns grew to become the Ravens
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| 12:28 |
: How do you suppose that O’Neil Cruz will modify to CF? Wouldn’t RF be a extra logical spot given his arm?
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| 12:28 |
Dan Szymborski: I feel he’ll be tremendous. It is sensible to strive CF earlier than settling for a nook
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| 12:28 |
: As an Orioles fan, would you be glad if the Orioles signed Santander at 4 x 25 million/yr?
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| 12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Positive. The O’s have been underspending for a logn time
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| 12:29 |
: if the White Sox really pull off a 12-10 end to keep away from 120 losses, it will likely be the most important upset since…?
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| 12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Given how the White Sox have performed this yr, it’d be like Park County pee wee hockey beating the Purple Wings
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| 12:32 |
: GIve us a minor leaguer or first yr participant whose future ZIPS has gone although the roof due to his efficiency in 2024.
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| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: It was Ortiz again in July, however now David Fry is #1
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| 12:33 |
: What number of PAs does Holliday should run a 58 wRC for earlier than Elias begins kicking himself for apparently making him untouchable on the deadline?
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| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: Rather a lot
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| 12:34 |
: Have you ever ever performed any of the FromSoftware video games? I’m 45 Hrs into Darkish Souls and loving it regardless of it’s age and ruthlessness
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| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Solely dabbled a bit
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| 12:35 |
: When was the final time you cried and why?
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| 12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: August 2019 when it grew to become clear that I’d very all of a sudden should put Galileo to sleep
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| 12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: (my 20-year-old massive grey gourmand cat for many who don’t keep in mind)
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Thank goodness that was more moderen for the reason that time earlier than was a videogame
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: (I stunned myself by tearing up a bit on the unhealthy, first ending you get in Chilly Metal IV, even within the unported Japanese model)
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| 12:38 |
: The 8 spot the Twins gave up within the 4th to the Rays final evening was the worst type of dying by 1,000,000 paper cuts. I’m afraid they’ll simply limp into the playoffs with/with out Buxton/Correa after which for the primary spherical be like nah, we’re good and get swept
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| 12:38 |
Dan Szymborski: Hey, they’ve carried out that earlier than!
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| 12:38 |
: Does zips purchase the brand new Hunter Brown?
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| 12:38 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has for some time
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| 12:39 |
: Curious what ZiPS thinks of Chapman’s 30s after his rebound season. He’s now as much as 37.3 bWAR (30ish fWAR) at age 31. Dare we are saying…he has a shot on the HOF? Any approach you can see it taking place?
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS appreciated it greater than I did. Might be extra in Jay’s piece
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| 12:39 |
: Buxton with a setback… about how do you suppose a ZiPS profession rerun assuming common well being would look?
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: I did a time warp for him a pair years in the past
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| 12:40 |
: Have any opinion on the Yankees odd use of Dominguez this yr? How would you’ve dealt with issues otherwise?
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| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means had anybody have a look at me just like the Yankees apparently have a look at Alex Verdugo
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| 12:44 |
: Once they say “center center” what’s it the middles of?
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| 12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: strike zone
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| 12:45 |
: Why does MLB.com care a lot whether or not I’m human?
|
| 12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: People spend cash
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| 12:46 |
: Any thrilling international imports for 2025?
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: Sasaki most clearly!
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| 12:46 |
: “the time earlier than was a videogame” Pac-Man is simply filled with tragedy, I do know
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| 12:46 |
: Is the choice to not carry up Jasson and play him over Verdugo as unhealthy and dumb as many Yankees fan say it’s?
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah
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| 12:46 |
: What would Zips supply Bregman and do you suppose it’s affordable contemplating Bregman’s finest years had been aided by the juiced ball and trash can shenanigans? He appears to have settled within the 4-5 WAR vary which remains to be spectacular
|
| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m unconvinced by the proof that it was an element
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| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: and it’s unhealthy largely due to the mens rea, not the outcomes
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| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would nonetheless supply Bregman 5/130
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: He’s mainly been tremendous for 3 months
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| 12:48 |
: Is there something Zips sees in Verdugo and Lemahieu that justifies the Cashman/Boone regime’s continued blind loyalty to random vets?
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: No
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| 12:48 |
: Did the horrible begin to the yr meaningfully transfer Carroll’s future projections? Conversely, has the torrid second half moved them again a lot in the event that they did?
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Not meaningfully, simply shaded down a bit
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| 12:49 |
: if tearing up a bit = crying then I’m a veritable John Boehner
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: Effectively, I solely teared up a bit on the online game
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: I cry cried about dropping my buddy
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| 12:50 |
: What number of workers does an MLB org have?
|
| 12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I’d guess someplace aroudn 500
|
| 12:50 |
: Which era zone are you in?
|
| 12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: Japanese
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| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m from Baltimore however have lived in Ohio since 2007
|
| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ve by no means lived in a distinct time zone
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| 12:51 |
: Will we already know the top of season voters?
|
| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: I feel solely Jack O’Connell within the BBWAA is aware of *all* the voters
|
| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: I did get my project of NL ROY a couple of weeks in the past
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| 12:52 |
: How many individuals are within the chat proper now?
|
| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: 143
|
| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Fewer than traditional after the sluggish begin
|
| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: at 12:05 it was at 11
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| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Because of me screwing up the publish
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| 12:52 |
: For lack of higher phrasing, what are the error bars like for rookie defensive projections? I requested a couple of months in the past why ZiPS didn’t like Colton Cowser’s protection when he was T3 by OAA, and his protection has progressively gotten increasingly more common since then. Identical factor with Masyn Winn, however the different approach!
|
| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: Surprisingly, they’re similar to the error bar for all defensive projections, which stunned me. Very massive
|
| 12:53 |
: if, again on july 1, ZiPS solely knew the long run W/L document til now of certainly one of both BAL or NYY, what would it not have predicted the division odds of the opposite crew to be?
|
| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: I can positively not do that on the fly!
|
| 12:53 |
: Why doesn’t wOBA deal with IBB’s identical to common walks? Is it as a result of they’re thought-about context dependent? It looks as if for many hitter’s it could be a sufficiently small quantity to probably not matter and for somebody like 2004 Bonds it feels bizarre to exclude them from his offensive profile.
|
| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: Effectively, somebody needed to resolve by some means
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| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m unconvinced, although IBBs are messy due to their context dependence
|
| 12:54 |
: Kutter and Houck have each been tough previous couple of months. Do you imagine both will flip it round and end robust?
|
| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m extra bullish on Houck
|
| 12:54 |
: ought to i even care concerning the angels in any respect?
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| 12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: No
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| 12:55 |
: don’t robots additionally gamble on sports activities although?
|
| 12:55 |
Dan Szymborski: Sure, however there’s promoting and robots don’t get moderate-to-severe circumstances that it’s important to ask your physician about
|
| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: Although I’m nonetheless questioning why I’m speculated to be asking my physician if a drug is correct for me. I’d assume that the physician had already thought-about it
|
| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: Such as you wouldn’t go to the hearth division and ask them in the event that they although about utilizing hearth hoses
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: “Ask your French restaurant if butter is best for you.”
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| 12:57 |
: Has ZiPS’ outlook of PCA modified from this season?
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: It had pale a bit earlier, however it’s again to the place it needs to be
|
| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: effectively, again to the place it was
|
| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: the philosophical assertion of what PCA projection is morally superior is a theological query I can’t reply
|
| 12:58 |
: With Roman Anthony shifting up the prospect lists and Campbell not far behind, what ought to the Sox do with all their outfielders? O’Neill will presumably transfer on, however do they commerce one other man?
|
| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: I feel you simply see hwo issues shake out
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: some will disappoint, somebody will get injured, so on
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| 12:58 |
: Hey let’s be honest now…after final season the Twins have raised the expectation from “simply glad to be right here” to “simply glad to not get swept”. The sky is the restrict! (I say this as a lifelong Twins fan, not being imply spirited)
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| 12:58 |
: Do you like to shell your personal peanuts?
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: No
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: household reasosn
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| 12:59 |
: Byron Buxton is the Glass Joe of MLB.
|
| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: However Glass Joe’s particular transfer doesn’t hit onerous
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: I feel Buxton is extra Don Flamenco
|
| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: or perhaps Bald Bull
|
| 1:00 |
: might consuming skyline chili with beans —and making you name it chili—make you cry? What should you needed to make a video of it professing your love, and in addition having fun with a Hotdog “sandwich” on the identical time?
|
| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Consuming issues I don’t like doesn’t make me CRY
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| 1:01 |
: do the fan graphs projected standings take note of general crew efficiency, or do they favor latest success. for instance, the padres had been a .500 crew till after the break
|
| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: They’re based mostly on the standings too date and the remainder of season projections
|
| 1:01 |
: I’ve all the time been hung up on that “average to extreme” language in drug advertisements too lol, it’s the “I’m a traditional particular person” conceit that’s so strongly shattered by the necessity to use that apparent legalese
|
| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: I really like answering moderate-to-severe or mild-to-moderate when somebody asks me how one thing is doing
|
| 1:02 |
: The Angels play the White Sox 6 occasions within the closing 2 weeks. They are going to actually assist resolve historical past.
|
| 1:03 |
: Have you ever thought-about doing (or perhaps have carried out already) a ZiPS time warp for the remainder of Dave Kingman’s profession had he not been (possible) blackballed from the league? 35 dwelling runs at 37 years previous is insane for a final season, even when he was a below-average hitter general that yr. Thanks in your time!
|
| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: I imply, he was fairly unhealthy
|
| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: and a leaping off level at 37 isn’t going to be all that fascinating, I don’t suppose
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| 1:03 |
: do you like to shell your personal pistachios? I do solely as a result of it’s the one factor protecting me from consuming 2500 energy value each sitting
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| 1:03 |
: salted peanuts: simply eat the shell too!
|
| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually eat a ton of nuts
|
| 1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: peanuts usually tend to find yourself in stir fry
|
| 1:04 |
: Skyline sponsors some ingredient of the Reds broadcast, however I already overlook which one I used to be so triggered
|
| 1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Skyline’s massive in Cincy clearly!
|
| 1:04 |
: would enlargement imply an extended schedule?
|
| 1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Most likely not
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| 1:04 |
: There are sufficient nuts at fangraphs that you simply don’t want extra, Dan, you’re good xD
|
| 1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: after all, peanuts are legumes!
|
| 1:04 |
: Are you continue to doing all of your each different day fasting routine? I’ve gotten good outcomes from a 16:8 intermittent technique however am contemplating attempting different fasting choices out of curiosity
|
| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Yup, down 51 kilos for the reason that finish of the World Sequence
|
| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: And on that notice, since I’ve a Lindor piece to complete up, I’m going to should bid you all farewell for this week!
|
| 1:05 |
: I’m having fun with this chat btw, very comparable vibes to the basic FG chat period (not that present ones are unhealthy, they’re just a bit much less… vivacious imo)
|
| 1:05 |
Dan Szymborski: Aren’t my chats normally the identical?
|
| 1:06 |
: I feel it was the much less busy-ness because of the embed
|
| 1:06 |
: however anyway, perhaps it’s nothing substantive. g’day!
|
| 1:06 |
Dan Szymborski: ah
|
| 1:06 |
Dan Szymborski: I wish to suppose my chats are normally vivacious!
|
| 1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: However then once more, all of us wish to suppose good issues about ourselves
|
Dan Szymborski is a senior author for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a author for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, an everyday visitor on quite a lot of radio reveals and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He additionally maintains a horrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
